A. M. VASILIEV

Director of the Institute of Africa, Russian Academy of Sciences

Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences

revolt in the Arab world Keywords:, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood

Egypt exploded with revolution. Authentic. Not "like a revolution", as I myself wrote before visiting the country in my article "Tsunami of Revolutions"*, but a real revolution.

Why?

Not because Egypt had the worst poverty in the world. Cairo's mud slums are studded with television antennas. The houses have electricity and often water, and the children almost all go to school. Compare with African and Indian slums and "feel the difference". But there are no revolutions there... Not yet...

Not because Egypt was hungry. On average, an Egyptian got more calories than the generally accepted norm due to subsidized prices for tortillas, vegetable oil, sugar, although, of course, without the European share of meat, vegetables, fruits, milk in the diet.

Not because the country was economically stagnant. On the contrary, the average GDP growth rate in our century - 5-7% per year (about 4% even in the crisis of 2009) - was higher than the world, although lower than Chinese or Indian ones. The achieved level is approximately $6 thousand. per capita per year-looks good.

Not because it was the most oppressive and oppressive regime on earth. There were and still are many worse and scarier modes. In Egypt, however, there was an oppositional and rather bold press, and the system of advocacy was developed. Although there were arbitrary arrests and tortures in prisons and concentration camps.

Not because Egypt has become a champion of corruption. There was monstrous corruption in the country. But in the list of the most corrupt countries, it was somewhere in the middle**.

So why is that?

I will try to offer my own explanation.

DEEP ROOTS

The point is HOW the Egyptians perceived their situation. The existing order of things became unbearable, although for decades and decades the main wisdom of the Egyptian was the maxim: "patience is good!". Suffer humiliation, suffer unemployment, suffer the scandalous gap between rich and poor, suffer the injustice and arbitrariness of judges, officials, and police officers. Endure the inability to realize your talents. Don't protest. May you be rewarded in the other world for your virtue and patience in this world.

And the level of education grew rapidly, and satellite channels showed a decent, beautiful, free life. And the Internet and mobile phones have become available to millions. And people knew and saw that non-Whites, non-Europeans-Japanese, Koreans, and then the Chinese-rose higher and lived better. And Arab oil and Arab gas were leaking somewhere.

How so? We are the oldest civilization on earth! We are Umm al-Dunya-i.e. the mother of the world! We have the best religion in the world - Islam. In our language, in Arabic, the Quran was sent down by the great Allah to the earth!

And inside, in the heart, in the brain, the cry "Enough!" grew, which did not spill out until time.

A very significant part of the crisis is demographic. Scientists call it the "youth hill". What is its essence? 20-30 years ago, thanks to the success of medicine, child mortality sharply decreased. But women's fertility - i.e., the number of births per woman-remained temporarily the same. The decline in the birth rate occurred, but lagged behind the decline in mortality. And to date in the Arab countries up to 30 - 40 - 50% of the population is made up of young people aged 15-30 years. Thus, the most passionate, impatient and determined part of the population grew up and became predominant in society. But these young people, unlike the previous era, are usually educated or semi-educated.

In Egypt alone, there are hundreds of thousands of university graduates (albeit with a dubious quality of education), most of them have mobile phones, computers and the possibility of new social communication using the Internet, Facebook, and YouTube. They have great social ambitions, but little ammunition. Arabic-language TV channels "Al-Jazeera", "Al-Arabiya", "Al-Hurriyya" that professed Western values in the Arab Republic

The article was published in the framework of the RGNF project "Russia in a polycentric world", N 11-32-02001a

* See: "Asia and Africa Today", 2011, N 3.

** For more information, see p. 10-16: Korotaev A.V., Zinkina Yu. V. Egyptian Revolution of 2011. Structural and demographic analysis.

the shell companies, operating according to Western standards, gave their own vision of the world. And there wasn't enough work to do. And salaries were low, if at all. And there was not enough money for kalym and marriage. A critical mass of protest explosion was accumulating. Not just in Egypt. Perhaps, in almost all Arab countries.

This protest was fueled by purposeful American and generally Western propaganda. After the success of some "color revolutions" in the post-Soviet space, Arab countries were targeted. Instead of the old Muslim Brotherhood slogan: "Islam is the solution"," The Koran is our constitution", new slogans were thrown in:" Democracy is the solution"," Human rights are the slogan of the struggle","Freedom is the goal". Slogans for educated or semi-educated youth are intoxicating, rosy, and beautiful. Who cares if it ignores the millennial traditions of their own civilizations, the traditions of collectivism, and the norms of social responsibility? Step aside! Throw all these traditions off the ship of modernity!

Through the American National Endowment for the Development of Democracy, with a budget of tens of millions of dollars, through a well-developed network of non-governmental organizations, through invitations to study, seminars, conferences in the West, they looked at potential new leaders in Arab countries. Instructions for "nonviolent" fighting were distributed over the Internet in almost 200 ways-from splashing paint on the windshields of police cars to cardboard boxes under jackets and shirts to make baton strikes ineffective.

And yet! Who was behind this policy of the West? Official Washington? Israel? World behind the scenes?

How easy it is to throw harsh epithets if you don't dig deeper! How easy it is to explain everything by the machinations of the "Washington regional committee" and the decisions of the "Israeli district committee"! But there is no escaping the fact-precisely the fact: there was a real military-political alliance of Washington (along with NATO) with repressive autocratic regimes in the Arab countries. "He may be a son of a bitch, but he is our son of a bitch," repeated the leaders of the West. (I myself saw how at the Afro - Union-EU conference in Tripoli last November, European leaders fawned over Gaddafi.) There is no escaping the West's cooperation with repressive regimes in order to maintain stability in favor of the West, preserve peace with Israel, ensure unlimited access to the main thing-the oil and gas resources of the vast region, and cooperate in the fight against terrorism and Islamic extremism.

Official Washington was aware of the growing social and political tensions in the Arab countries, and it correctly believed that reforms were needed, but reforms - from above, gradually, democratization within the framework of an alliance with the West. The "Greater Middle East" program, as well as the slightly modified "New Middle East" program, was aimed at transforming the ruling elites in the region according to Western patterns. These plans failed. Either these very elites were ossified in their privileges and traditional methods of "dragging and not letting go", or before their eyes was an example of the self-destruction of the Communist nomenklatura, which tried to accept the Western rules of the game and collapsed (the pathetic fate of Gorbachev, who was spat on in his own country). But the Arab elites remained unmoved. And non-governmental organizations from below, raised with American and Western European money, remained marginal and under the blows of police batons and strangers - for the masses of the population.

And suddenly! Tunisia! Egypt! Libya! Bahrain! Jordan! Yemen! Syria! Tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions of demonstrators.

Confusion in Washington and Tel Aviv.

The tsunami of revolutions has spread in different Arab countries in different ways. But we will talk more about Egypt.

KNIGHTS OF THE REVOLUTION

Here is what the outstanding contemporary Egyptian writer Gamal al-Ghitani told me:: "About a week before January 25, I was at the Presidential Palace for a reception-someone was awarded the highest order "Necklace of the Nile". I was depressed. I saw the royal court, with lackeys, ceremonies, liars, sycophants. Everything seemed dead and hopeless. "Is it really for many years?" I asked myself. Of course, I heard as early as January 24 that young people are organizing a demonstration on the Internet the next day. But as an older person, I just didn't believe in the success of the Internet. And now - it happened! Alexey! It's done! The revolution united everyone, Muslim and Coptic, rich and poor, intellectual and illiterate. It was a national outburst. Let there be difficulties, sufferings, sacrifices! But the old, dead mode won't come back!"

"My friend! My loyal, honest, infinitely talented

friend. I want to believe you so much! So I want to believe in the future of my beloved Egypt. But I come from a country that has experienced so many revolutions and counter-revolutions in a century! And with what bitterness I look at the present day of my homeland.".. I didn't say those words because I didn't want to hurt him. Just like him, many people think. Meisa, the widow of Mohammed Sid-Ahmed, my friend, philosopher and publicist, who spent 5 years in the Nasser concentration camp, founder of one of the Egyptian communist parties, exclaimed at the meeting: "We are in a new Egypt! We have regained the honor and dignity of great Egypt!"

...I talk to those who, through the Internet, Facebook, Twitter, and Youtube, became the organizer of the Egyptian revolution. Their names are not important, they do not hide them, please quote them, but our public does not know them. The brand of this group was their friend W. Gonski. He was busy on the day of the meeting. Young people have no feelings of jealousy or envy. Uninhibited, educated guys. Completely sincere. Patriots. Revolutionaries.

One of them in Al-Tahrir Square lost an eye ... smart and.. let them forgive me... naive, passionate about Western slogans and values.

I tried to win them over. I opened my book "Egypt and the Egyptians" and read the dedication and conclusion. They liked it. He said that he had come to study, not to teach, to study the situation, and a frank conversation with heated arguments flowed.

- When did you decide that the "X" hour for the revolution had arrived?

"We didn't plan a revolution. We did not intend to start a revolution, although we knew about the success of our Tunisian brothers. We called people to demonstrate against the hated police. They wanted to ruin the police holiday on January 25. We expected that 40 thousand people would come out to demonstrate, but more than 200 thousand did. There were victims. And then it became clear: the people don't want Mubarak. On January 28, after Friday prayers, a million protesters took to the streets and several million more across the country. The hatred burst out. And then-a well-known case. The police, after several attempts to deal with the demonstrators, fled, and the army was with the people.

- What are your tasks?

- Democracy. The return of human dignity. The return of Egypt's greatness. Freedom. Free elections.

- And why did you oppose the amendments to the constitution, then against the temporary constitution proposed by the military?

- We needed time to discuss the draft constitution. We did not want the article "Islam is the state religion, and Sharia is the main source of legislation"to be preserved in it. We were opposed to the introduction of a formal quota in Parliament-50 percent for workers and peasants-retained since the time of Gamal Abdel Nasser.

- Do you hope for success in the elections?

"I don't think we'll get many votes. But we are forming two blocs-the April 6 Union-which has been in existence for a couple of years-and the Revolutionary Youth Bloc. The task is to discredit the former National Democratic Party in power, confiscate its property, and show the people how corrupt its members are. About the current task: send all corrupt senior officials of the former regime to trial.

- How do you feel about Libya?

- We are allies of the Libyan revolutionaries, we are against the dictator Gaddafi.

- Do you agree with the NATO bombing of the country?

Some hesitation on the part of my interlocutors, and then resolutely:

- If the success of the revolution requires an alliance with NATO, let there be NATO bombing.

- And if you encounter resistance here in Egypt, will you invite NATO planes to bomb Egypt?

I deliberately asked a provocative question. My interlocutors argued hotly among themselves, to the point of shouting, then came to a consensus:

"Egypt is a great country, and it can handle its own problems. They won't dare bomb Egypt. We have the strongest army and the strongest air defense in the Middle East (my interlocutors, of course, forgot about Israel, but apparently they did not know about the quality of Egyptian air defense in comparison with modern requirements).

- Did you know that all revolutions have always led to economic decline? People hoped for an immediate improvement in the situation, for an immediate improvement in their personal situation. But it won't happen.

One of them said:

- But corrupt officials have transferred tens of billions of dollars abroad. We'll get them back.

"I'm sorry," I said, " almost one trillion dollars were illegally exported from Africa during the 50 years of independence. Do you know how much money you have returned over the years? One billion - one thousandth of the loot.

The boys looked sad. But then one of them said:

- But the democratic West needs us. The West will help us.

"You don't expect a counter-revolution?"

- Yes, there is such a danger. But there is also the danger of a new revolution, the "revolution of the hungry", if the economy does not improve.

I heard exactly the same words about a possible "revolution of the hungry" from one of the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood, Saadi Husseini.

THE OLD AND NEW MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD

The brothers ' office is located in a remote area of Cairo. A modest, unassuming dwelling. Security is almost nonexistent or invisible. Visitors scurry around. The executives were dressed in well-pressed European suits, ties, and neatly trimmed beards. The speech is calm and balanced. We were talking in Arabic, but a graduate student from the Mendeleev Institute, a candidate of chemical sciences, married to a Russian woman, was sitting there ready to help. My interlocutor, a former member of the 2006-2010 Parliament, was an official representative of the Muslim Brotherhood faction in that parliament. In the next parliament, Mubarak's henchmen did not allow the "brothers" to enter, grossly rigging the elections.

The conversation was friendly and frank. "Brothers" are listed as a "criminal terrorist organization"by the stupidest decision of our court in the 90s. Therefore, we have no official contacts with them. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has just relieved me of my position as his representative for relations with Lida-

rami of African states. Therefore, as a free scientist, I could meet anyone.

I assumed that I was somewhat prepared for the meeting and discussion. I myself wrote that there is Islam and Islam. Islam is diverse, diverse and contradictory. Its banner can cover socio-political trends of various properties. There is the semi-official Islam of al-Azhar, the most influential theological university in Egypt; the popular Islam of Sufi mystics; and the Islam of extremist terrorists. And Islam of the most popular socio-political organization of the Muslim Brotherhood. They rejected the ideals of the "Westerners" - liberals and nationalist revolutionaries, and sought answers to the challenges of our time in the Koran and Sunnah (the life of the Prophet Muhammad). Fighting for the preservation of Islam is the main task of Muslims, they said. Therefore, we must resist imperialism, the West, which wants to plunder the resources of the Muslim world and destroy Islam.

The Brotherhood once rejected political parties as an unacceptable form of social and political life in Muslim Egypt. But then they pragmatically used the parliamentary elections either as an independent or in alliance with other parties. But in their view, Egypt's political parties and democracy have failed. The Parliament was formed from the oppressors of the people. The state can be governed fairly only on the basis of Sharia law, which has a divine origin, and not on the basis of laws created by man. But democracy can function within the framework of Islamic law, so it is a "big lie" to accuse the brotherhood of being undemocratic. A series of economic measures should ensure the welfare of the people and independence from foreign economic domination. We must free ourselves from imperialism in its various guises. Once upon a time, the communists and their atheist ideology were also enemies of the "brothers", but now they are simply forgotten about the Communists.

This brief summary does not cover the broadest range of views of the Muslim Brotherhood on all aspects of social, family, political and economic life. But how useful it is to hear the opinion of a pragmatic "brother", one of the leaders of the organization!

"You've finally come to our headquarters. We, the "brothers", have always wanted to meet with the Russians and have an open dialogue, " said Saad Husseini. - This is in the interests of Russia, Egypt and all mankind. We remember how you helped Egypt and Palestine, we remember how you helped build our armed forces, build the Aswan dam, build factories, and train personnel. We won't forget that.

After the collapse of the USSR, a void was created in the world. Previously, there was a balance of power in the interests of humanity, and therefore in the interests of the Arab countries. Now the balance is broken. Russia is a great power, and it should play a big role in the world, including in our region.

- And what is your position on specific events?

- Let me remind you that when Georgia was waging war in Ossetia, and the Minister of Defense of Georgia was then an Israeli citizen, we supported the Russian Federation, we supported Russia in the war against Georgia.

We welcome dialogue with Russians in any format, either at the official level or within the framework of NGOs in the interests of the two countries. But the obstacles are on your side. We are very sorry that we are still on the "black list" of terrorists and criminals in Russia. This is not found anywhere in the world, only in you. Our organization has millions of members. Our names, phone numbers, and offices are known. Are we terrorists? You are officially meeting our Hamas brothers in the Gaza Strip, and we are criminals? If you define our positions, then we are centrists, we are in favor of accepting "others".

Our postulates are as follows: the decline of morals in the Muslim world implies rejection and condemnation of "others", causes a wave of extremism and terrorism. We understand why violence is born. But we are against violence, against terrorism, although we are for the right to resist aggression and occupation. We have condemned the September 11 attacks in the United States. We are the ones who deter terrorism in the Muslim world, which is why some terrorists call us "infidels".

Now organizations of the" brothers " exist in 90 countries in various forms, sometimes participating in governments. We have a lot of young people. Our task is to recognize "others" and advocate for democratization, rejecting violence. We are the school of the future.

I will summarize my words: we want more communication with Russia, and we are waiting for the charges of terrorism to be dropped. You are already late, and those who are late lose their positions. (By the end of the conversation, he was checking his watch. A new guest was already sitting in the waiting room - the Minister-Counsellor of the German Embassy.)

- Did the "brothers" play a role in the revolution?

- Our young people participated in correspondence on Facebook, and we allowed young "brothers" to participate in demonstrations on January 25, and not only in Kai-

re, but also throughout the country, especially in the industrial center of Mahalla al-Kubra.

And on January 28, we decided that all the "brothers" should participate in the revolution as part of the people, but not make special demands. "Freedom! Justice! Democracy!", " Mubarak-resign!" - these were the slogans of everyone, including our slogans. At the same time, we spoke out against violence, even violence against the police. If it hadn't been for our participation, there would have been even greater sacrifices. Among the demonstrators were police agents who tried to provoke clashes. We believe that our position predetermined the success of the revolution, because it took place all over the country, and not just in Al-Tahrir Square. It was a revolution of the whole country, so we rejected the support expressed to us by Hassan Nasrallah (leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah party-A.V.) and Ahmadinejad (President of Iran - A.V.), who claimed that an Islamic revolution had taken place in Egypt. We told them no. This is the revolution of all Egyptians.

- What are your plans for the near and medium term?

- We must bring down the National Democratic Party. It is mired in corruption, connected with the apparatus, with repression. The party must be dissolved and its property confiscated. We assume that they can change the name, but we will create a black list of corrupt PDP officials to prevent their success in the elections under a different name. But they have strong local positions, so many of them can get into parliament.

- What are your plans to create your own party?

- Some time ago, the "Vasat" party was created from among the young "brothers". Now we are creating a mass Freedom and Justice Party to register it. Maybe we'll create our own TV channel and newspaper. We are not against the law prohibiting the formation of religious parties. We will have a secular party. We are not against the participation of even Coptic Christians in it. We do not seek to create a theocratic religious state. We are for a civil state, for a civil government. Our tactics are as follows: first, we will not run for the post of president, but, of course, we will support the one whose program will be close to ours; second, we will not participate in the transitional government, although participation in the future government is not excluded; third, we do not seek to win the position of President. a majority in parliament, so as not to frighten anyone. After all, Mubarak used Nami to frighten the West in order to secure Western support. We want to increase the activity of Egypt's political life without claiming a monopoly of power. 20-30% of the seats in the parliament are enough for us.

- How do you assess the economic situation in the country?

"We know that Egypt faces very difficult times, so in particular, we don't want to take all the responsibility on our shoulders. The economic situation is getting worse. The so-called "revolution of the hungry" is possible. We need to prevent this by actively fighting corruption. Many people have naive hopes - to return the money stolen by corrupt officials, transferred to Western banks, and then distribute this money. All this is unrealistic. We need to create conditions for harmonious economic development. We hope that the elections will be fair, and we will be able to defend our principles in Parliament.

- If we turn to international affairs, what are your foreign policy goals?

- We consider Iran a Muslim state. We have common interests. However, we are against their methods of expansion. We are against some provisions of Shiism. But we want to build bridges of cooperation with Iran, and we are ready for this cooperation. We consider our relations with Saudi Arabia very important. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are two pillars of the Arab world. There are hundreds of reasons to cooperate with the powerful Saudi economy. The Muslim Brotherhood during Nasser's time fled to Saudi Arabia and worked there, teaching. We love this country, where the two main shrines of Islam are located.

- Can you state your position on the possible production of a nuclear bomb in Iran?

- There is a lot of talk about this, but now for some reason they don't say that Israel has more than 200 nuclear warheads. If they refuse them, we will also refuse them. But we are against Israel's monopoly on nuclear weapons in the region. We want to develop a peaceful atom. And they blame Iran for something. Israel has already attacked nuclear facilities in Iraq and Syria. They talk about the possibility of similar actions against Iran.

- How do you feel about future relations with Israel?

My interlocutor alternately uses the terms " Zionist entity "and"Israel".

- We respect the peace treaties concluded by Egypt. But the "Zionist entity" is a special case. There are three options. The first is to completely cancel the peace treaty. The second option is to leave it unchanged. The third option, which we support, is to invite the people to discuss the content of the agreement after the elections. Let everyone talk. After that, hold a referendum or vote in parliament. We will carry out the will of the majority of the people. If the people decide to change the agreement, we will negotiate.

WHAT ABOUT ISRAEL?

I'll digress for a moment from the events in Egypt. All my conversations and conversations in Israel revolved around these foreign policy postulates of the "brothers". Everyone on the right and left expressed concern. Both pro-government analysts and independent professors. It was not only the statements of the Muslim Brotherhood that were closely monitored here. After all, Egypt's new foreign Minister Nabil al-Arabi also said that the peace treaty with Israel is "not a sacred cow." The need to revise the treaty was also implied by possible candidates for the post of President of Egypt Amr Moussa and Mohammed al-Baradei.

Israel understands that cooperation with the Mubarak regime in the blockade of the Gaza Strip went far beyond the previous peace treaty and previous agreements. There was evidence that Israeli intelligence constantly informed Mubarak about the flow of demonstrators in the Delta and the Suez Canal zone, so that he could

I was more aware of the situation.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that there can be no negotiations with the Palestinian government, which includes Hamas.

The Arab revolutions have come to Israel itself. May 15 is celebrated by the Palestinians as the day of Nakba, i.e. catastrophe, considering as such the date of the formation of Israel. This time, for the first time, the Palestinians broke through the armistice line to the occupied Golan Heights, tried to march from the West Bank to Jerusalem, and approached the southern border of Lebanon, the administrative border of the Gaza Strip. Israeli units used tear gas and then fired live ammunition. As a result, one and a half dozen Palestinians were killed and several dozen wounded.

After the fall of Mubarak, representatives of Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip, visited Cairo and met with the military leadership to discuss the possibility of economic ties with Egypt and the situation of political prisoners in Israeli prisons. In Cairo, Hamas from Gaza and Fatah from the West Bank agreed on joint action. The Israeli government is not happy - after all, the stake was and remains on the division of the Palestinians.

Israel's entire status quo policy of negotiating for the sake of negotiating, biting off one piece of Palestinian territory after another, establishing new settlements for Israelis, and squeezing Palestinians out of their homes has been called into question. Therefore, taking into account the development of events in Egypt, the attitude towards the revolutionary events in Syria has changed dramatically. In the first days of anti-government unrest, the press advocated support for the demonstrators, then there was general restraint. As they cynically said here, the "Israeli district committee" decided not to overthrow Bashar al-Assad, and the "Washington regional committee" approved this decision. Why? Bashar al-Assad was predictable. From him came a stream of anti-Israeli and anti-Western rhetoric, harsh statements. At the same time, the Ba'athist regime has not allowed a single violation of the ceasefire in the Golan Heights since 1973, i.e. for 38 years (!). 20 thousand rubles. Israeli settlers are settling in the occupied Golan Heights. They were even formally annexed by Israel, although this act is not recognized by any state in the world.

However, Israel notes that Syria is an ally of the hated Iran, which is considered an enemy here. Syrians, according to the Israelis, are arming and training Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon, who fought so successfully against the Israelis in 2006. But the potential chaos in Syria, the rise of a Sunni movement led by the local Muslim Brotherhood, which is much more extremist than in Egypt, seemed the worst a script.

Further opinions were divided. Some (on the left) believe that it is right now that we need to negotiate with the Syrians and Palestinians in order to remove tensions for the future with the changing and possibly democratizing Arab world. Others (close to the government) believe that no negotiations can be held right now, no agreements can be concluded, and even more so, no territorial concessions can be made, since it is not known which forces will come to power tomorrow in Syria or in the crisis-ridden Palestinian territories.

There is still no answer to the question of whether Bashar al-Assad will cope with the revolutionary unrest, even if we assume that the Israeli and American special services are not yet (!) working against him. But official Washington and its NATO allies are increasingly determined to overthrow Bashar al-Assad.

Arab revolutions have their own logic and dynamics. And the Syrian " brothers "have not forgotten how in 1982 Hafez al-Assad (the father of the current president) drowned in blood with thousands of victims the uprising of the" brothers " in the city of Hama. The heirs of that uprising have their own scores to settle with the Alawites - the backbone of the ruling party, the backbone of the officers and generals, and with the Assad family, and with his entourage.

It is clear that the almost bloodless Egyptian or Tunisian options in Syria will not work. And representatives of the "Internet youth" sitting in Lebanon or Jordan, through a network of social connections, bend their line - " Down with the Baathist regime!" In response - mass repressions with the participation of the army. An equation with many unknowns...

"LISTEN TO THE VOICE OF AL-TAHRIR!"

..I am in Al-Tahrir Square, in the center of Cairo. Friday. People gather for rallies in different parts of the square. There are not hundreds of thousands of participants, but at least dozens. The very name At-Tahrir has become a brand of the Egyptian revolution, a symbol of perseverance, courage, and freedom. For eighteen days without a break, there was a lot of passion, speeches, arguments, poems, songs, fights with the police and with hooligans hired by the police, and even with camel cavalry. From millions of throats, a single word was uttered to President Mubarak: "Go away!!!". The police then disappeared. Tanks were parked around the square and in the alleys. The army did not interfere in the events.

On the critical day of February 11, the crowd intended to move to the presidential palace, where the presidential guard stood ready to shoot. I was told that President Mubarak allegedly had a telephone conversation with Defense Minister Marshal Mohammed Tantawi. This conversation has already become part of the revolutionary mythology.

"Why aren't you on my side? the president shouted. "I made you a marshal, I appointed you Minister of Defense!" "Yes, I owe you everything, my president. But if I choose between you and my homeland, I choose my homeland. Go away! The army will be against your guard." The president resigned and flew with his family to Sharm el-Sheikh for a private villa. A bloodbath was avoided.

The Supreme Military Council, headed by Tantawi, took power in the country. But only a few people knew that on the eve of this decision, the head of the Egyptian General Staff, Sami Enan, sat for several days in Washington, at the Pentagon, coordinating a plan of action with the Americans. It was decided to sacrifice Mubarak, but keep power in the hands of the military, which should start reforms.

The people did not know the behind-the-scenes story and rejoiced.

But revolutions, I repeat, have their own logic. Its component part is building up requirements.

This is not just about expelling Mubarak, but also about regime change. The government was dismissed, a new one was appointed, the old constitution was abolished, temporary constitutional provisions were published, and the former parliament was dissolved.

But now I hear new demands on the square. The speaker calls out in rhyme: "These are our demands, O Mushir (marshal in Arabic), listen to the voice of At-Tahrir!" The crowd waves national flags and repeats the slogan in chorus over and over again.

There is another rally nearby. The imam of the Omar Mosque speaks, interspersing his speech with quotes from the Koran and rhymed slogans.:

"Thank you to the revolution of January 25!", " Bring corrupt officials to court!", " Why are the authorities delaying?", "Bring Mubarak, his sons and henchmen here to the square, let them be judged by the people!", " Remove the former media leaders!", " Why did the governors and proteges remain in their places Mubarak? Drive them out!", " Long live the revolutionary rule of law!", " There can be no dialogue with murderers who have the blood of our martyrs on their hands!", " The rule of law belongs to us!", " No business can be done without taking into account our demands, the demands of the people!", " This is not a football competition and not a football game. disagreements between fans of a particular club to talk about reconciliation. The honor of the people and the blood of martyrs have been touched upon."

The crowd reacts violently to every word, to every shout, responding with an approving hum, repeating rhymed calls.

"Anyone who wants to end the revolution with a counter-revolution and cause sectarian hostility, a split between Muslims and Christians is a criminal. Put him on trial, as well as corrupt officials! We, Muslims and Christians, work together. Christian churches and monasteries are under our protection."

"Here is a list of our requirements:

Create a presidential council that will rule Egypt until the elections.

Trial of all corrupt officials led by Hosni Mubarak.

Dissolve the National Democratic Party and nationalize its assets. We reject the idea that the NDP has the right to participate in the national dialogue, because it is not a national party, it is a party of traitors.

Suspend the activities of all former managers and their representatives in all structures with influence. Put them under house arrest to prevent criminal plots.

No law should prohibit strikes.

Repeal all state of emergency laws.

Why did the military council dissolve the parliament, and not dissolve the local councils?

We must continue our revolution until it is fully successful. No goals will be achieved until corruption and corrupt officials are eliminated."

There is a youth rally about a hundred meters away, and the demands are almost the same:

"To judge corrupt officials, starting with Hosni Mubarak and up to the smallest responsible official.

Remove all governors and dissolve local councils.

Organize a civilian presidential council that will rule Egypt until the elections.

Return all the stolen money from abroad to Egypt.

Dismiss university leaders who were appointed by the previous regime.

No reconciliation and dialogue with those who shed the blood of martyrs, no dialogue with corrupt officials.

Prevent the participation of the National Democratic Party in the national dialogue, prohibit the NDP.

Dismiss media executives who worked for the previous regime.

Release all political prisoners who were imprisoned before the revolution. Stop torturing prisoners in prisons."

There are rhyming shouts everywhere: "The people demand to judge the president", "Our revolution is not a game of cat and mouse", "Raise your voice in defense of the revolution", "Those who fight will not die", " Why are the representatives of the former regime in power? Down with it!" "You can't build a house if some floors are already destroyed, you need to destroy the whole house to the ground. This should be done quickly."

Speeches inflame the audience. Speakers wipe large drops of sweat from their faces and talk, talk, talk, shouting slogans. The crowds pick them up. Bagel and water vendors are walking around. Dancing to the drums. Children together with their parents carry posters and wave national flags. They sell souvenirs with the emblems "Revolution of January 25". They take photos against the background of posters and send images via mobile phones to friends and acquaintances. They make video recordings. A family was sitting under a single tree in the center of the square: an old man, a husband and wife, and four children are drinking tea.

I emphasize: this is a relatively small gathering day. The following Friday, when I was no longer in Cairo, ten times as many people gathered in the square.

The street didn't just shout and rally. She was getting her way. The War Council retreated step by step. The NDP was dissolved and its funds and property confiscated. Mubarak, his wife and sons were arrested. Several dozen more top corrupt officials were jailed. The crowd was clamoring for blood. So far, there have been no Robespierres, Trotskys, or Sverdlovs of their own. But who knows?.. All heads of state-owned media have been removed. The free press affects policy and personnel appointments. A friend of mine, the writer Gamal al-Ghitani, ran a column in the Al-Akhbar newspaper criticizing the newly appointed Minister of Culture, calling him a manager, not a cultural figure. The minister was removed. Gamal Abdel Nasser's son was interviewed in a newspaper. He denounced the Mubarak regime, saying: "The January 25 revolution is a continuation of the July 23 (1952) revolution."

But, as in any revolution, everything is chaotic and contradictory. Students are on strike, demanding to raise the marks they received in exams. High school students are on strike, demanding that the curriculum be made easier. All-Egyptian scandal: during a football match between Egyptians and Tunisians, Tunisians won. And then a huge crowd of Egyptian fans ran out on the field and began to beat Tunisian players. The police did not intervene. To the credit of the Egyptians, I must say that by

Even the Supreme Military Council met on this occasion and sent an apology to Tunisia. Dozens of young people came to the Tunisian embassy to express their sympathy and apologies. In social networks, young activists spread appeals to their compatriots to observe the rules of the road and not to swindle on the streets (Remember: "Citizens! Be cultured! Don't spit on the floor, but spit in the trash cans!")

There are reports that Salafists (extreme Muslim extremists) are destroying tombstones and crypts over the graves of saints revered by Sufis, Muslim mystics. There are clashes in cemeteries. Hundreds of members of Al-Jihad al-Islami and other terrorist Muslim organizations are returning from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Western Europe. They were supposedly fighters against the former oppressive regime of Mubarak. Co-conspirators in the assassination of President Sadat in 1981 were released from prison (the main participants in this action were then executed). Muslim Brotherhood statement: "We condemn Salafists and terrorists."

Reports about the situation in the economy are becoming increasingly alarming. People expected an immediate improvement in their situation, and it is getting worse. Tourism revenues fell by 80% in three months. Hotel employees, tour guides, merchants, and taxi drivers were hit. The country's gold and foreign exchange reserves have been reduced by several billion dollars. $ 6.5 billion of private investments "ran away" from the country. One of the businessmen complained to me at a meeting at the Suwayris club, where the journalistic and literary elite gather: "We were going to build a new metallurgical plant. And suddenly we are told: "You obtained the license with the help of Ahmed Izzah (a metallurgical oligarch, a friend of Mubarak's son Gamal). Your licenses are invalid. Either give 100 million pounds (!) "on the paw" or leave." We are forced to close the business. Young people go to work with their computers and correspond on Facebook. Try banning it. We are told: "We are now a democracy, we will soon choose the management of firms."

I remember an enthusiastic, excited journalist from an influential magazine. She was seething with fervent enthusiasm and faith in the future. "Right now," she said, " journalists get 500-600 pounds a month, and you need to set a minimum of 1,200 pounds. Where can I get money from? Why, it's very simple. We will get back the tens of billions that Mubarak and other corrupt officials transferred abroad, and that's enough money for everyone." I didn't argue with her, but I imagined the naivety and hopes of ordinary Egyptians if a journalist from a reputable publication believes in a fairy tale about tomorrow.

AND WE'RE RUNNING LATE

I've heard enough reproaches against Russia, from everyone-right, left, businessmen and taxi drivers, university professors and handymen: "Where are you, Russians? Why can't you be seen or heard? Why don't you at least treat the wounded of our revolution as the Germans did? Why don't you establish contacts with us at the level of non-governmental organizations? You're running late. The last person to arrive will be in the last place in terms of authority." I tried to justify myself:

"We have lifted the ban on tourists traveling to Egypt, and this is a very significant economic component."

What else was there to add? It is good that our Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Egypt. And where are our trade unions, human rights defenders, friendship and solidarity organizations, women's and youth organizations, athletes, writers, and scientific delegations?

I know the answer: no money. There is money for contacts and trips to the United States or France, Germany or even China. Not for the Arabs. In Soviet times, there was money. (By the way: Egypt paid off ALL its debts with Russia (!) - both for the high-rise Aswan dam, and for weapons, and for factories.)

What about human-to-human contacts? Millions to millions? Let these contacts wait... Let's wait for our Bill Gates, who himself earned tens of billions (dollars, not rubles) and gave half to charity.

That's how we live. The Arab revolutions and the future of the Arab countries are on their own, and we, with our problems and claims, are on our own.

No one seems to be to blame. We really have our own big concerns. It is clear why our friends leave us and forget about us. And the money? Well, it is safe to say that if the Arab countries establish regimes that suit the West, the West will have money. And where to go without economic ties? After all, Russia will not drink Arab oil, will not buy back Arab gas, and post-revolutionary governments can find a common language with the West. But without us. We'll only get a few crumbs at best.

* * *

...The authorities announced a reduction in the curfew to 3 hours - from 2 to 5 in the morning. Previously, it was observed very relatively. But the protesters stayed in At-Tahrir for the night. This time they were dispersed by the army. There were dead people. But there were no particular protests from either the Internet Youth or the Muslim Brotherhood.

...And new alarm signals of growing chaos. It seems that the crescent and the cross have opened their revolutionary embrace. Islamist extremists set fire to two churches in Cairo's working-class Imbaba district. There were fights between Muslims and Copts. On both sides, 15 people were killed, more than two hundred were injured.

Christians protesting against police inaction staged a multi-day sit-in outside the television station. The Coptic Pope appealed to the faithful not to stir up passion. But in new clashes, there were dead and wounded...

Cairo-Tel Aviv-Moscow

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