On November 7-8, 2006, the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Moscow State University hosted an international conference under this name, dedicated to the 50th anniversary of the ISAA. Experts from ISAA, MGIMO (U) of the Russian Foreign Ministry, IV RAS, IDV RAS, and the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences took part in its work. Among the foreign guests were professors from three universities in Taiwan (Zhengzhi, Tamkan and Qing-yun), scientists from Taiwan's Sinica Academy, as well as students and postgraduates from China.

The program of the conference, which was chaired by ISAA Director M. S. Meyer and RAS Academician V. S. Myasnikov, included 20 reports on the external and internal problems of the "rise of China", the impact of the PRC on global and regional development, cooperation and security. Special attention was paid to relations between Russia, China and Taiwan, as well as issues of Taiwan's internal political development, relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, and regional models of democracy.

The Conference was supported by the representative office of the Taipei-Moscow Coordination Commission for Economic and Cultural Cooperation. Its head, Chen Rongjie, said: "The Rise of China is causing a lot of scientific controversy. The views of the international community vary from pessimistic to optimistic. I think we should adopt a pragmatic, reasonable and serious approach, and work together to find ways to respond to both the threats and opportunities created by the rise of China."

Tamkan University experts-Director of the Institute of Russia V. V. Malyavin and Professor A. L. Pisarev shared with their colleagues their impressions of the political events of 2006 in Taiwan related to the mass campaign for the impeachment of the President of the Republic of China (KR) Chen Shui-bian. Most of the conference participants agreed that the crisis on the island does not mean the collapse of Taiwan's democracy. On the contrary, the progress of the prosecutor's investigation, the high organization of protests, and the clear actions of law enforcement agencies only further increased the credibility of Taiwan's democracy in the eyes of the whole world. At the same time, according to V. V. Malyavin, Taiwan still remains the only truly democratic country in the Greater China area.

The issue of criteria and internal conditions for the development of democracy in Asian countries, including China, was considered by V. J. Berger (IDV) in the report "Prospects for Political Reforms in China". He noted that the democratization of the Chinese political system is hindered by the authorities ' fears of losing control over society and opening the way to its destabilization. But attempts to keep the relationship between a little-changing authoritarian State and a rapidly transforming society almost unchanged are fraught with further undermining social and political stability. Although market reforms have been the main driver of China's economic growth in recent decades, they not only create conditions for political democratization, but are also used to strengthen the barriers that oppose it. Decision-making on many key issues of the country's development faces many obstacles, including the vested interests of business elites. At the same time, the emergence of social groups with markedly divergent interests has a twofold impact on China's development prospects. On the one hand, it can undermine social stability, and on the other hand, it helps to create objective conditions for the growth of democracy. As noted by V. Ya. Berger, significant democratization of the authoritarian regime in the PRC is not a matter of the near future, not a categorically predetermined one. Still, there is a growing awareness among society and the country's leadership that delaying policy reforms could call into question the achievement of China's long-term strategic development goals. According to V. Y. Berger, the ability of the current leadership of the PRC to draw timely conclusions from mistakes gives reason to look to the future with cautious optimism.

V. T. Gelbras (ISAA) in the report "China's success and its price in the context of globalization" noted that along with the economic success and general recovery of the country in the late XX and early XXI centuries.

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China has to pay a heavy price for its achievements. Rapid growth has exacerbated many economic, socio-political, environmental and other problems. These are the erosion of the central government, the decline in production efficiency, the colossal waste of natural resources, the stagnation of the domestic market, the growth of social inequality and conflicts, the strengthening of inter-regional differences, corruption and crime, etc.In general, the results of the country's economic development over the past quarter of a century show that they cannot be assessed as only positive. The price that society pays for accelerated economic growth has turned out to be excessively high.

V. A. Melyantsev (ISAA) also spoke about the relativity of price and success of Chinese reforms in the report "The Chinese Model of Development: general outlines, external effects, international comparisons". The speaker believes that the indicators of China's integration into the world economy require clarification. Thus, in terms of attracting foreign investment, the PRC is hardly superior to developing countries and reaches only a quarter of the average for developed countries. Increasingly integrated into the global economy, China is becoming critically dependent on imports of a number of raw materials and other goods, as well as technologies. China is characterized by a rapid growth of capital accumulation with an unbalanced structure. The efficiency of investments in the last 5-10 years has decreased by almost 1.5 times. Labor productivity growth is not very stable. 20% of industrial enterprises, including a third of state-owned ones, remain unprofitable. Although China's banks outwardly reduced the share of "bad debts", according to some experts, the real situation looks different. Along with problems in the economy, the state of the environment is rapidly deteriorating, which is fraught with a socio-ecological crisis and negative consequences for the whole world. Statistics on China's progress in the fight against poverty and poverty are disputed by a number of experts. Although China has achieved a dramatic decline in the share of the poorest people over the years of reforms, many social problems are still unresolved and escalating in the heavily overcrowded country, where the people are deprived of many political rights. In general, according to V. A. Melyantsev, it is still too early to sum up the results of Chinese reforms. The overall economic potential of the PRC has greatly increased, but there are many flaws in the development model that undermine its sustainability. China's impact on the global economy is also mixed.

A. N. Karneev, Deputy Director of ISAA, in his report "China and globalization through the prism of discussions of Chinese scientists", noted that unlike some Russian social scientists who are critical of the processes of political and economic globalization, in China the initial wariness about this phenomenon has given way to a more optimistic approach. The problem of the "rise of China", according to the author, cannot be adequately understood without taking into account the discussion about the ways of China's development as one of the main beneficiaries of the globalization process. As for the limits of globalization and the possibilities of independent development in the modern unipolar world, Chinese political scientists expressed interesting thoughts about the formation of a" Chinese model " of integration into the modern world, which differs from the general standards. Discussions of Chinese political scientists about the so-called Beijing Consensus and the "China effect" make it possible not only to analyze certain trends in the development of the modern world, but also to look into the "kitchen" where ideas are "brewed" for the current and next generation of Chinese leaders.

In 2005 - 2006, the PRC was in the midst of a debate about a "comprehensive rethinking" of the reform course. O. M. Vorokh (IDV), in her report "Economic Discussions in the Hu Jintao era", reviewed the materials of two of the largest discussions, which were stimulated by the growth of social contradictions that affected broad sections of society. The current leadership of the PRC, she noted, allows experts to discuss the accumulated problems, but does not allow them to question the reform policy and the socialist course of transformation. Discussions surrounding the official concept of a "socialist harmonious society" allow the Chinese authorities to take the growing criticism of the reforms under control and strengthen their position as an arbiter in the dispute over the reforms.

The latest ideological shifts are noted in the report of A. V. Lomanov (IDV) "The concept of "harmonious development" and the current situation in the PRC". Since 2005, the slogan of a "socialist harmonious society" has dominated the propaganda of the People's Republic of China, and at first it was intended to justify the adjustment of reforms in the interests of backward and poor social groups and regions of China. But even now we can talk about an attempt by the authorities to develop a general concept that covers not only the socio-economic sphere, but also environmental problems, and even external ones.-

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ney politiki Beijing. The active development of the concept of a "harmonious society" on the eve of the 17th CPC Congress scheduled for 2007 indicates, in the speaker's opinion, Hu Jintao's desire to strengthen personal power by strengthening his ideological legitimacy.

The conference participants also paid great attention to the importance of the "rise of China" for regional development and relations with neighbors, including Russia and East Asian countries. So, S. G. Luzyanin (MGIMO(U) Russian Foreign Ministry) in the report " Vladimir Putin's Policy in North-East and South-East Asia. Regional and Country Priorities 2005-2006 " considered new trends in Russian policy towards China, Korea, Japan and the Southeast Asian countries. According to the speaker, by 2006 there had been an evolution and some re-evaluation of the Chinese factor in Russian politics: a systematic methodology prevailed, real cooperation appeared on the entire spectrum of international problems, with a tendency to emphasize the positions of the Russian Federation and the PRC in contrast to the United States. In the economy, there was an increase in the dependence of the PRC on Russian energy resources, and the Russian Federation on Chinese investments and technologies, experience in integrating into the world economy and reforming the economy. Summarizing the features of the Japanese vector of modern Russian politics, the speaker emphasized the emphasis on the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation, the obvious desire to respect state interests, and the search for new economic resources for the development of Siberia and the Russian Far East. The overall context of political bilateral relations for 2007 is likely to remain within the framework of the previous format, which is presented as "smile diplomacy with a restrained dialogue and internal tension".

In 2000-2006, Russia's policy in Southeast Asia can be considered at two levels: collective participation in promising regional development projects and bilateral relations with each of the Southeast Asian countries. Since 2000, Vladimir Putin has used APEC to "present" Russia's economic and energy opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region. Within the APEC framework, since 2003, a number of countries (Malaysia, Thailand, China, etc.) began to form an opposition to US global projects. Under these circumstances, Russia correctly supported this opposition, citing the need to ensure a multipolar world that is not limited by a single American "standard".

Summing up the characteristics of the current Eastern policy of the Russian Federation, S. G. Luzyanin considers it possible to say that V. V. Putin's project "Russia's Return to the East" has already begun to be implemented.

Special attention was paid to the "Taiwan problem", the dynamics of Taiwan's internal development, relations with China, and the role of these relations in regional and global development. In his report "The Taiwan Strait in the context of the current regional situation in East Asia", A.V. Vorontsov (Institute of Strategic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences) noted that both the Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula remain the most conflict zones in the region. And the essence of the complex relations between the shores of the Taiwan Strait cannot be adequately understood without taking into account the fact that they are developing under the influence of global and regional trends in the region. The former are determined primarily by the dynamics of the Washington-Beijing axis, the latter by the Beijing-Tokyo axis.

The complex approach of the United States to the " rise of China "is reflected in the emergence of the doctrine of" containment and engagement "("congagement"). The doctrine of the "strategic environment" ("hedge strategy") looks more rigid. In 2005, the United States put forward another, more comprehensive "responsible shareholder" doctrine against the PRC. Here, the emphasis is placed on involving the PRC in the system of international relations, as a legitimate "shareholder" interested in preserving this system, while fulfilling a number of conditions and accepting the rules of the game.

The struggle for regional leadership between Beijing and Tokyo creates new irritants in relations between China and Taiwan. One of them is the "threat", from the point of view of Beijing, of Japan's "return" to Taiwan. It is known that due to differences in the colonial practice of the Japanese Empire, Taiwanese people have a more positive memory of the period 1895-1945 than in other Asian countries that were victims of Japanese militarism. If the inclusion of Taiwan in the area of responsibility of the Japanese self-Defense Forces is alarming in the PRC and in Korea, then in Taiwan it is perceived as a stabilizing factor balancing the growing power of the PRC.

In relations with the PRC, the speaker believes that the main threat to Taiwan comes not from the "one China" policy, or even from the law on combating separatism adopted in 2005 in the PRC, but from the prospect of losing the economic competition to China. A growing number of economists argue that Taipei is late in implementing economic reforms. Taipei's preoccupation with finding new arguments in favor of sovereignty and its controversy with Beijing prevented it from addressing many pressing issues. As a result of fruitless, but not harmless disputes with Beijing, even among allies

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Taiwan has developed an unspoken opinion about the current leadership of the Kyrgyz Republic as a" source of trouble " (trouble maker). In this regard, many experts pin their hopes on the new leader of the opposition Kuomintang Party (KMT), Ma Ying-jeou. Much attention was drawn to his idea to supplement the well-known "5 no's" in the approach to China with "five must's", designed to resume bilateral contacts with Beijing in various areas. Approval was expressed by the GMD leader's statement that all his initiatives reflect a "clear Taiwanese identity" (while not requiring independence) and are aimed at consolidating Taiwan's image as a fighter for peace in the region. According to A.V. Vorontsov, such an understanding of reality creates prerequisites for a calm, constructive dialogue. And when developing an optimal model of relations between the shores of the Taiwan Strait, it makes sense to pay attention to the experience of Beijing, which, according to many analysts, has so far succeeded in balancing the power of the United States in a non-provocative "smart manner."

The conference participants were interested in the report of V. A. Korsun (MGIMO (U) MFA) "The problem of Taiwan's representation in the UN in the context of the" peaceful rise of China"", in which he examined the history of Taiwan's attempts to" return " to the UN after 1971. As the speaker noted, Beijing has always successfully blocked Taiwan's initiatives. As a result, Taipei leaders went from "storming" the UN to a long "siege". The harsh blockade imposed by Beijing forces Taiwanese diplomacy to be more inventive both in its arguments and in finding ways to solve the problem of representation of the "23 million people of Taiwan"in the UN. A patient approach allows Taipei not to force its formal entry into organizations such as the IMF, IAEA, WHO, etc., which is blocked by Beijing, but to establish itself in the international legal field by its economic, peacekeeping and humanitarian activities.

Finally, special mention should be made of the reports of Taiwanese experts presented at the conference, which mainly reflect the point of view of the modern, independence-oriented leadership of the Kyrgyz Republic. Huang Jiecheng (Institute of America, Tamkan University), in his report "The strategic interests of China, Taiwan and Russia in Asia and their impact on regional security", noted that modern China can be represented as two conventional symbols: a dragon armed with missiles and a sick panda. In fact, a sick and weak panda poses an even greater threat to regional security than a warlike dragon.

Yan Jianfa (Un-t Tsing-yun), in his report "Taiwan's New National Identity and Political Change", tried to prove that the rise to power of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in 2000 marked a new era associated with the growth of "Taiwanese identity" and the increasingly distant self-consciousness of Taiwanese people and China. Recognizing the sensitivity and complexity of the issue of national and ethnic identity, the speaker noted that since the 1980s, this issue has played a key role in Taiwan's political life, especially during the election period. The issue of identity serves as a " fault line "along which the main political forces on the island are divided not into right and left, but into" green "and" blue", i.e. supporters of independence and supporters of reunification with China. According to the speaker, the "rise of China" significantly narrows the international space of Taiwan, and this stimulates the growth of national consciousness. And the rejection of "Chinese identity" is reinforced by threats from the PRC. As a result, the social base of supporters of "Chinese identity" on the island narrows, and the question of "love" for Taiwan becomes a polemical criterion for rival parties and other social forces. Noting that the growth of Taiwan's "national identity" is associated with the deepening of democracy, Yan Jianfa makes, in our opinion, a very controversial conclusion that democratization moves Taiwan away from China. In fact, under certain conditions and a multi-dimensional approach, democratization and the growth of self-awareness can, on the contrary, lead to a rapprochement between both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Recognizing that both Chinese and Taiwanese nationalism are on the rise, the speaker considers it necessary to create a framework or mechanism that will help avoid a possible clash between the two types of nationalism and somehow clarify the uncertain future of Taiwan-China relations.

The topic of a new Taiwanese identity is also touched upon in the report of V. TS Golovachev (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) "Taiwan at the dawn of the XXI century-changing symbols, rituals and prejudices". As the author notes, the beginning of the XXI century. Taiwan is "at a crossroads", in an anxious search for new goals and development paths. If the goals are theoretically obvious: self-determination, self-affirmation, and the solution of the Taiwan problem, then the ways to achieve them are not clear, and the final choice depends on the complex influence of social forces and attitudes in Taiwan.

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In recent years, the ruling DPP has been searching in the following areas: dismantling the system of totalitarian rule and the political and ideological heritage of the Kuomintang, reviving local cultures and developing new ways and guidelines for development. In fact, the DPP course has taken the form of" decitaization "and" naturalization "of society in order to achieve a"Taiwanese identity." These trends represent attempts to reform the existing ethnic and social groups in Taiwan by adjusting their collective consciousness. Namely, by going beyond sinocentrism, reviving local cultures and identifying their connection with Austronesian cultures, as well as creating a new supralocal community by bringing non-Chinese ethnic identity to the level of national identity.

Although the past years have not led to the denunciation and breaking of the main political and ideological symbols and rituals, the gradual erosion of spatial, geographical, temporal, historical, cultural and ethnic landmarks that have been established over the decades of the GMD's rule is obvious. Erosion is coming from both above and below, reflecting shifts in Taiwanese consciousness and identity. And although changes in social consciousness are not a matter of time (if there is no revolution), the DPP is laying the real foundations for such changes today. There is a trend that can bring about qualitative changes in 10 to 15 years, with a new generation of citizens entering the scene of Taiwanese history. However, as history teaches, forced "Decitaization" and "Taiwanization" promise to cause a response to the surge of ethnic consciousness of people from China, supported by a powerful objective trend towards economic, cultural and demographic convergence on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Under these conditions, any revision of ideology that does not fully meet the time can slow down the development of society, creating a crisis of trust, loss of charisma by the ruling party, the coming to power of opposition parties, and another revision of the political and ideological guidelines of public consciousness.

The new revision is unlikely to take the form of forced "requitaization" and "detayvanization". Apparently, other initiatives and methods of achieving them will be proposed: further opening up Taiwan to contacts with the world and the PRC, balanced globalization and the rise of local cultures, strengthening democracy, rejecting conflict and manipulative methods in ideology, and searching for consensus on a new value (moral and ethical) basis. Reaching an agreement on ethnic self-determination in Taiwan's multiethnic environment will require a rejection of national differences, selfishness and prejudice, as well as a policy of ethno-cultural synthesis. Consensus on ethnic and other macrosocial issues will help resolve the issue of"Taiwanese identity." And this, in turn, will make a real political settlement of relations between the two sides of the Strait and the "Taiwan problem" as a whole.

The texts of the reports of the conference "The Rise of China: Implications for Global and Regional Stability" will be published in a special collection, which will be published this year.

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