On April 10, 2006, the Department of Kurdish Studies and Regional Problems of the Middle East Department of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences held a scientific symposium "The Kurdish question in the countries of West Asia (Iraq, Turkey, Iran, Syria) and the problem of regional stability". It was attended not only by employees of the sector, department and other departments of the Institute, but also by prominent scientists of MGIMO, ISAA at Moscow State University, Yelets State University, representatives of the Institute of the Middle East, as well as various Kurdish organizations: the Kurdistan Regional Government (Iraq) - B. Khashavi, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan in the CIS countries - Said Shorsh Said, a regional NGO promoting the rights of Kurdish Women's Rights. Isayan, International Union of Kurdish Public Associations, Union of Diasporas of the Russian Federation-M. Shamoev, representatives of the Kurdish diaspora in Moscow.

In the opening speech, Zav. Olga Zhigalina, Head of the Department of Kurdish Studies and Regional Problems, noted that at the beginning of the XXI century, ethnic Kurdistan remains in a zone of instability due to the aggravation of interethnic contradictions and conflicts in West Asia. The current geopolitical situation in the region makes the solution of the Kurdish issue more urgent, since the problem is no longer limited to granting the Kurds administrative and cultural autonomy. New geopolitical conditions contributed to the fact that the Kurdish autonomist movement began to lose the character and forms inherent in the national liberation movements of the previous historical period. Now the Kurds are faced with solving problems related to the use and distribution of energy resources (oil, gas, water) located on their territory, the reproduction of food, since the Kurdish regions are the breadbasket of Western Asia, etc. Therefore, it is important to analyze the process of formation of the national economy in Iraqi Kurdistan and determine how successfully an economic basis is being created that can ensure its independent existence; to trace how the settlement of the Iraqi crisis affects the state of the Kurdish issue in Turkey, Iran and Syria; to determine the degree of influence of the international factor on stability in transformation of the Kurdish Autonomous Region (KAR) in Iraq into an independent state entity.

The problems of economic development of Iraqi Kurdistan were covered in the reports of the Kurdish scientist B. Khashavi, employees of the Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences G. I. Starchenkov, N. Yu. Ulchenko, G. S. Shahbazyan and others. It was noted that during the rule of S. Hussein's regime, Iraqi Kurdistan was among the economically depressed regions of the country. In the post-Saddam period, a project for the integrated economic development of this part of Kurdistan began to be created.

B. Khashavi focused on the question of the acceptability of modern models of economic development for Iraqi Kurdistan, in particular, the development of market relations. Kurdish economists believe that the "evolutionary" approach, which is determined by creating conditions for the development of stable market relations, is more acceptable. This thesis was supported by the adviser to the representative of the regional government of KAR Y. S. Nabiyev, noting the presence of a lively trade turnover with the neighboring Kurdish areas of Turkey and Iran. In his opinion, the attraction of foreign workers and Turkish Kurds also contributes to the development of the economic potential of Iraqi Kurdistan. In addition, he stressed that the territory of ethnic Kurdistan has large deposits of hydrocarbons, and the main corridors for the transportation of oil and gas pass through it. He gave some data on recently discovered oil and gas reserves: in Iraqi Kurdistan alone, they amount to 45 billion cubic meters. With 100 trillion barrels of oil and 100 trillion cubic feet of gas, Kurdistan's water resources are also vast.

Continuing this topic, G. S. Shahbazyan added that the presence of large reserves of water resources makes it possible to build two reservoirs and a hydroelectric power station in the Sulaymaniyah governorate. Natural and climatic zone of the Iraqi (Southern)Sea Kurdistan region is favored by the development of agriculture - rainfed agriculture, as well as animal husbandry. Deposits of minerals (limestone, dolomites, gypsum, sand, gravel, clay) create prerequisites for the development of the economy of Kazakhstan.

page 187

Along with the development of a small oil field in the Tak-Tak area (south-east prov. Erbil) new oil and gas deposits are being explored. G. I. Starchenkov devoted his report to the problem of oil production in modern Iraqi Kurdistan. He noted that the instability of the political situation in today's Iraq negatively affects the formation of the oil situation in Iraqi Kurdistan. Oil revenues and their distribution across the country are not properly controlled. Despite conflicting estimates of oil reserves in the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the expert believes, it is still possible to assume that 1/3 of Iraq's oil reserves are accounted for by the autonomy. In recent years, there has been an intensification of oil exploration and an increase in the rate of oil production in the territory of the Kurdish Autonomous Region. The speaker sees the reasons for this in the policies of the leading Kurdish political parties - the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), led by M. Barzani, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), led by J. Barzani. Talabani; financial assistance from the United States and other UN states; stable income from oil exports of all Iraq, received by the Kurds (equal to 13%); attracting foreign companies (9 companies today). The expert also noted that the growth rate of oil production in Iraqi Kurdistan could be higher, but they are being held back for a number of reasons. These include, in particular, the following:: reduced growth in oil production due to the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1989), underfunding of Kurdish areas during the regime of Saddam Hussein; bureaucracy and nepotism among employees of the central government; attacks by radical Islamist groups on oil pipelines.

The management of KAR is trying to solve the issues of oil refining on its own territory independently. Unbeknownst to Baghdad, it has entered into a contract with a Norwegian company for oil exploration and is working to create a legal framework for attracting foreign capital. In addition, the growing consumption of petroleum products requires an increase in the number of oil refineries (and there are only two of them in Iraqi Kurdistan now), G. I. Starchenkov pointed out. Therefore, again, without coordination with the central government, Prime Minister Karzirvan Barzani managed to agree on the transportation of oil across the Iraqi-Turkish border, as well as start developing new oil and gas fields. All these steps are designed for the long term: if the United States withdraws its troops from Iraq, the KAR, according to the expert, may declare its independence, so the autonomy's leadership is taking steps to ensure economic self-sufficiency of the region in the event of a large-scale civil war and economic sanctions. Further, G. I. Starchenkov noted that important oil pipelines, such as Kirkuk-Ceyhan, were taken under protection by American troops. The Kurds themselves cannot ensure the security of oil facilities. At the same time, there are contradictions around the control over them between Muslim radicals and Western companies. Smuggling operations carried out, in particular, across the Iraqi-Turkish border play a negative role. Turkish Kurds, however, almost do not participate in the operation of gas and oil pipelines located on the territory of Turkish Kurdistan. N. Y. Ulchenko elaborated on this aspect.

A number of reports highlighted the positive role of Iraqi Kurds in maintaining stability in Iraq, even though the presence of coalition forces did not address all the needs of the Kurdish population. So, N. V. Stepanova (MGIMO) noted that the Iraqi Kurds also actively participated in the process of forming a new government of the country, complicated by deep political contradictions existing between Sunnis and Shiites. They demonstrated a high level of political culture, and this was reflected in the fact that J. R. R. Tolkien and his colleagues were very active. Talabani was re-elected President of the country for a new four-year term. The ongoing instability in Iraq delays the resolution of the most pressing problems of the Iraqi Kurds, including, for example, the definition of the new borders of the Kurdish autonomy in accordance with the articles of the permanent constitution; the solution (postponed to 2007) of the problem of Kirkuk; the relations of the KAR with the federal center are not yet defined, etc. At the same time, the majority of Kurds support the declaration of independence of KAR. This was also mentioned by the Academy of Sciences in his speech. Armenian Academy of Sciences Sh. Kh. Mgoi, who noted that the KAR regional Government is making efforts to create the foundations for the independent development of the Kurdish region. Within its current borders, a process of political integration is underway (a unified government is being formed), a president has been elected, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) is gaining importance as the ruling party. In Iraqi Kurdistan, work is underway to create a national economy, establish international relations with foreign countries. Moving away from Baghdad,

page 188

KAR has various difficulties. However, it maintains a stable situation. The expert also stressed that the possible destabilization of the situation in Iraq in the event of the withdrawal of coalition forces may negatively affect the fate of the country. At the same time, the Iraqi Kurds will defend their already won positions, including the use of armed methods of warfare, although they prefer a peaceful solution to disputed problems. This topic was developed by N. S. Mosaki (IB RAS). He noted the positive role of the Iraqi Kurds in maintaining stability in the area of the Iraqi-Turkish border. The Kurds adhere to a policy of containing conflicts, which manifested itself on the eve of the American invasion of Iraq, when Turkey intended to occupy the northern part of Iraqi territory. A similar position is typical for them, according to N. S. Mosaki, and in the question of Mosul and Kirkuk. At the same time, Turkish political circles are closely monitoring the situation in Iraqi Kurdistan, since the declaration of independence by the Iraqi Kurds (currently only hypothetical) can destabilize the situation in neighboring Turkish Kurdistan.

Turkey's policy on the Kurdish issue was analyzed in detail in the report of K. V. Vertyaev (IB RAS). Trying to prevent the progress of the Iraqi Kurds on the path to independence, Ankara, in his opinion, is trying to look for various ways to strengthen Turkey's position in northern Iraq. On the one hand, it tried to use the Iraqi Turkomans in northern Iraq to weaken the positions of the Kurdish autonomists. On the other hand, it considered the possibility of introducing a limited military contingent to the Salaheddin area in order to control the situation in the area of the Iraqi-Turkish border in the event of the announcement by the leadership of Southern Kurdistan about the withdrawal of the QAR from Iraq. Moreover, the positions of the Turkish political and military circles on the issue of independence of the Iraqi Kurds are different: the military is categorically against such a turn of events. At the same time, Ankara did not abandon its intention to put an end to the Kurdistan Workers ' Party (PKK) militants based in the border areas of Iraq and Turkey. However, Turkish military and political circles failed to reach an agreement on these issues with representatives of the US administration. Despite the existing tensions in Turkish-American relations (the Americans did not manage to use Turkish territory to transfer their troops to Iraq), the positions of the United States and Turkey basically coincide on the issue of the PKK. The Americans, in particular, have a negative attitude to the collection of funds by its functionaries from the Kurdish population.

Most participants in the symposium agreed that the United States is using the Kurdish factor to exert political pressure on the Turkish ruling circles. At the same time, Sh.K. Mgoi clarified that the PKK abandoned the previous slogan of autonomy and now put forward an alleged slogan of independence of Kurdistan, although the secession process is very complex and can affect the situation in the entire region. V. K. Yegorov (Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences), who has thoroughly analyzed the international aspect of the Kurdish problem, agreed with this conclusion in principle. He also spoke about the history of the PKK since its creation and noted that at present, the Turkish ruling circles are afraid of the resumption of its armed struggle for independence and would like the Americans to destroy its bases. Continuing this theme, the chairman of the International Union of Kurdish Public Organizations, M. D. Shamoev, stressed that the West deliberately classifies the PKK as a terrorist organization. In his opinion, it is not such and really exists solely at the expense of voluntary contributions from the Kurdish population.

Some reports analyzed the impact of the presence of coalition forces on the situation in ethnic Kurdistan. N. V. Stepanova (MGIMO), in particular, noted that the efforts of the United States to create a model in Iraqi Kurdistan that can become an example of transformation for the entire region, were not crowned with success. Despite the fact that Iraqi Kurdistan is the only stable region in Iraq, socio-political and economic activities in it are dictated by American advisers. She positively assessed the visible changes that are taking place in the region, but, in her opinion, the issues of internal political and economic development of this region are still far from being resolved. It considers it possible to continue the struggle of the Kurds for the inclusion of the oil-bearing region of Kirkuk, which brings real incomes, in the KAR and for declaring the city of the same name as the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. At the same time, Stepanova expressed doubt that in the current conditions, the Iraqi Kurds will be able to resolve the issue of Kirkuk in their favor due to the ongoing instability in Iraq, the internal political struggle (between Sunnis and Shiites-

page 189

mi) and the activities of radical Islamist groups. It doubts the rapid stabilization of the situation in Iraq, and therefore Iraqi Kurdistan will remain in an arc of instability for the time being.

Sh. H. Mgoi warned against exaggerating the importance of the American factor in resolving the Kurdish issue in Iraq. He is convinced that the presence of the United States in Iraq is determined not by the desire to resolve the Kurdish issue, but by its own interests. O. I. Zhigalina believes that the Kurdish factor is of pragmatic importance for the Americans and is used differentially by them in each Kurdish area of the countries where the Kurds live: if they support the situation of stability in Iraqi Kurdistan, then in the Kurdish areas of Iran and Syria, countries that the United States ranks as the "axis of evil", on the contrary, provocative actions aimed at destabilization of the situation in them; in Turkish Kurdistan, American politicians use the Kurdish factor as a means of putting pressure on Turkey. Touching upon this issue, Y. Nabiyev, in particular, stressed that the Kurds of ethnic Kurdistan fully support the American concept of democratic development of the Middle East. At the same time, they try to use their relations with the United States to solve their own national problems. He believes that this cooperation will last until the end of 2007, while the Bush administration is in power in the United States. In this regard, the Kurds insisted that a solution to the problem of Kirkuk be made before the end of 2007.

The participants of the symposium paid much attention to the analysis of the prospects for the development of ethnic Kurdistan. Thus, K. V. Vertyaev believes that Turkey will stand in solidarity with Iran and Syria in preventing the independence of the CAR. At the same time, it could, in his opinion, recognize the existence of such a state entity in exchange for the transfer of the oil fields of Mosul and Kirkuk to it. This point of view was also supported by V. K. Yegorov, who noted some factors that indicate the irreversibility of the movement of Iraqi Kurds to create their own statehood (the successful functioning of national state institutions, the presence of a well-trained army of many thousands, which is the guarantor of the protection of a possible Kurdish statehood, the issue of their own banknotes, the solution of the problem of the language of common Kurdish communication, etc.). Sh. Kh.Mgoi and N. S. Mosaki agreed. The latter, in particular, stressed that the process of forming a Kurdish statehood is basically prepared by the permanent constitution, and the expert considers groundless statements about Kurdish selfishness and separatism contained in the speeches of some foreign media. G. I. Starchenkov believes that the Iraqi Kurds may declare independence in the event of the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq, but this is fraught with the outbreak of a large-scale civil war in the country.

Yu. Sh. Nabiev expressed a slightly different position. He noted that the prospects of the Kurdish region of Iraq largely depend on its relations with the United States, which has its own strategic interests in the region that do not coincide with the Kurdish ones. At the same time, the Kurdish leadership has a real understanding of the current situation. The US Administration stands for the territorial integrity of a democratic and federal Iraq. Despite the unanimous desire of the Iraqi Kurds to declare the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan, the KAR leadership does not do this, including because of the negative position of the United States, which considers Iraqi Kurdistan as the most reliable territory for the deployment of the American army in the event of a civil war in Iraq. The deployment of the US army in QAR, according to the Kurdish leadership, is a reliable guarantee of the security of the autonomy. According to Yu. Sh. Nabiyev, the Iraqi Kurds are guided by a healthy pragmatism: at present, they benefit from being part of Iraq from the point of view of security and economic. The Kurdish leadership believes that the declaration of independence of KAR is currently premature, since it is fraught with its economic blockade and the beginning of military operations against the Iraqi Kurds by Iran and Turkey. In this regard, at this stage, the Iraqi Kurds set themselves the task of consolidating their achievements in Iraq, strengthening their positions in the central authorities, developing the Kurdistan region's economy, and forming national state institutions.

O. I. Zhigalina agreed that at the beginning of the XXI century the Kurdish factor has acquired unprecedented acuteness and relevance in the countries of the Middle East. She noted that the aggravation of political processes in one part of the divided Kurdistan region inevitably leads to a corresponding reaction in other Kurdish areas. Given this mutual influence, the solution of the Kurdish issue in the region, apparently, should be carried out in a comprehensive manner. Since the policy of the ruling

page 190

If the situation in the Kurds ' home countries over the past 90 years, which have passed since the First World War, has not led to peace in ethnic Kurdistan, its socio-economic development, then an alternative to it could be a course towards achieving national accord and socio-economic and cultural development of the region.

In conclusion, O. I. Zhigalina noted the importance and relevance of the issues raised at the symposium. She noted that the economic models proposed by the American advisers of the KAR do not meet the realities of the region. Therefore, its leaders independently, without coordination with Baghdad, make decisions acceptable to the Kurds. The settlement of the Kurdish issue in Iraq according to the American model can lead Iraqi Kurdistan not to independence, but to the establishment of an American protectorate in one form or another. The activation of US policy in the Kurdish areas of Syria, Turkey and Iran only destabilizes the situation in them. At the same time, it would be desirable to create a multilateral international commission that would take responsibility for deciding the fate of the Kurdish people in ethnic Kurdistan, taking into account the specifics of the development of each Kurdish area, and could offer balanced and constructive solutions that take into account the interests of the Kurds and their regional neighbors, as well as the international community.

Permanent link to this publication: