George Zinoviev. The history of U.S. - China relations and the Taiwan issue. Tomsk: Tomsk State University Publ., 2006, 348 p.

According to Georgy Zinoviev, at the beginning of the XXI century, no international conflict can compare in real danger and unpredictability of consequences for the whole world with the Taiwan issue, which has more than half a century of history. Although the island nation attracts far less attention than the events in Palestine, Afghanistan or Iran, Taiwan is the only problem in the modern world that is fraught with a direct military clash between the United States and China - the superpower and the main candidate for this role. The half-century-long standoff shows that, despite the successful freezing of the conflict, a US-Chinese consensus on the Taiwan issue is hardly possible in the foreseeable future.

Traditionally, the international community remembers this hot spot only once every four years - during the presidential elections in Taiwan. However, analysts believe that the peaceful course of the conflict is due to two factors: the fact that China has not yet received a guaranteed opportunity for a military solution to the Taiwan issue (almost everyone believes that this is a matter of time), and the fact that it is not by chance that the ability to wait in the wings is considered the dominant character of China.

Georgy Zinoviev tries to answer the question: why does Beijing not intend to change its position on tiny Taiwan (the population of the island state is 22 million people), even if it contradicts the will of the majority of the island's population? The answer to this question, according to the author of the monograph, is a complex mixture of considerations of prestige and geopolitics.

First, the Taiwan issue is an echo of the old humiliation of weak China by "imperialist predators", the shame of having to tolerate interference by a foreign power-the United States-in the country's internal affairs.

Secondly, the issue concerns the legitimacy of the Beijing authorities. Proclaimed on October 1, 1949, as a result of the victory of the Chinese Communist Party-led forces in the civil war, the People's Republic of China was to replace the Republic of China as the legitimate Government, whose sovereignty naturally extended to Taiwan. However, while the PRC was preparing for the last operation of the civil war-the landing on Taiwan, where the remnants of the Kuomintang armed forces were evacuated, the Korean War broke out and the United States introduced ships of the Seventh Fleet into the Taiwan Strait. In turn, Taiwan, which continues to be called the" Republic of China", has not yet openly abandoned the provision that its sovereignty extends to the entire territory of China.

Finally, the strategic aspect of the issue, according to Zinoviev, is that Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines form an island chain along the east coast of China, which serves as a natural barrier to access to the Pacific Ocean. As long as one of the elements of this island chain does not come under the control of China, it will not be able to become a great maritime power and reliably ensure its security. Meanwhile, the east coast of Taiwan provides a convenient deep-sea outlet to the Pacific Ocean and can serve as a good springboard for the spread of Chinese influence in the Pacific basin.

In recent years, the Taiwan issue has shown a tendency to escalate. One of the reasons for this is the process of democratization on the island, which began after the death in 1988 of the son and successor of Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek-Jiang Jingguo. On the one hand, the processes of democratization are attracting increasing sympathy from the international community. On the other hand, they allow the separatists to demand a referendum on independence. Meanwhile, one of the conditions for Beijing's use of force against the island states: "if Taiwan separates from China under any name." After winning the presidential election in 2000, Chen Shui-bian, a representative of the Democratic Party, which traditionally supports the island's independence, has been deterred from a rash step by the separatists only by American diplomacy and the influence of the opposition Kuomintang (which still defines Taiwan as a "non-communist part of China").

The outcome of the US-China conflict is difficult to predict. Along with those who predict an unconditional victory for the United States, there are also those who, like the mayor of Tokyo - the famous writer Shintaro Ishihara - predict defeat for the American army. According to them, the United States will be forced to stop the war as soon as the losses of the American army reach several thousand people, while China is ready for multi-million victims.

Taiwan is the biggest ticking time mine left over from the Cold War. Will the United States be blown up by a self-made mine?

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