On December 13-14, 2000, the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences hosted the next annual scientific conference on the problems of modern development of Southeast Asia, organized by the Department of Southeast Asian Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The conference was dedicated to the memory of corresponding members. M. S. Kapitsa, Russian Academy of Sciences. It was attended by employees of academic institutes and higher educational institutions of Moscow, employees of practical organizations.

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The conference was opened by the Deputy Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences A. Z. Yegorin, who highly appreciated the contribution of M. S. Kapitsa to the preservation of Oriental science and the Institute of Oriental Studies in a difficult time of crisis. A. Z. Yegorin, who highly appreciated the contribution of M. S. Kapitsa to the preservation of Oriental science and the Institute of Oriental Studies in a difficult time of crisis. the region and possible trends in its development in the XXI century. In addition, the conference topics included issues related to the assessment of the current state and prospects of cooperation between Russia and Southeast Asian countries.

The main presentations were made by the Heads of the Department. Department of Southeast Asia D. V. Mosyakov, Yu. O. Levtonova, S. A. Bylinyak, O. G. Baryshnikova (all-IB RAS).

D. V. Mosyakov 's report "New Realities in East and South - East Asia and Russia" contained a conceptual analysis of the problems of gradual convergence of two sub-regions: South-East (SE) and East Asia (VA). He noted that at the November 2000 ASEAN Summit in Singapore, the leaders of Southeast Asian countries and the leaders of China, Japan and South Korea expressed their determination to create a free trade zone within the so-called Greater East Asia (including Japan, China and South Korea). Having considered the possibility of implementing the ideas of Big VA at the country, regional, interregional and extra-regional levels, they came to the conclusion that most of the countries of the region are developing within the framework of a single economic and political macro-model - one of the important prerequisites for integration. At the regional level, however, the trend towards integration of the Southeast Asian countries is quite clear (despite some problems and contradictions). As for VA, there are very weak trends towards integration. Without real changes in the behavior and value orientations of the political elites of the VA countries, it is difficult to imagine the possibility of integrating VA with Southeast Asia. However, at the interregional level, this process may take an unconventional path-strengthening the ASEAN countries ' bilateral relations with Japan, China and South Korea. In the future, Greater East Asia may be divided into several regional groupings, led by Tokyo, Beijing, and Seoul.

Such a scenario poses a major threat to the unity of the ASEAN countries. But the conclusion about the impossibility of integration at the interregional level would be wrong: this is a long and multifaceted process. The tendency to counteract the formation of Greater East Asia is most clearly expressed at the extra-regional level. The main opponent of integration is the United States, which consistently thwarts all initiatives aimed at integrating Southeast Asia and the BA and comes up with the idea of creating security communities in the macroregion, ultimately trying to unite them under its patronage. Under the most diverse scenarios of integration processes in Southeast Asia and the CIS, the possibility of Russia's entry into the free trade zone in the macroregion is excluded. Therefore, from the point of view of national interests, it is preferable for Russia to integrate not on a multilateral basis (as with APEC), but on a bilateral basis, with an emphasis on developing trade and economic ties.

Yu. O. Levtonova's report "The instability factor in Southeast Asia: separatism, ethnic and confessional conflicts, terrorism" is devoted to the problems associated with the negative consequences of globalization (effects, risks). The confrontation of ethnic groups with different systems of cultural, civilizational and religious values can be one of the serious threats to the future world order. It is known that many researchers assess the growth of Muslim fundamentalism and extremism as a response to the challenge of globalization. This approach is also associated with the emergence of the concepts of "arcs and zones of international terrorism and instability". As for Southeast Asia, this region is still on the periphery of these "zones and arcs" not only in geographical terms, but also in terms of instability.

Currently, Southeast Asia has two hotbeds of instability on an ethno-political and inter-confessional basis-Indonesia and the Philippines. At the same time, Southeast Asia is historically predisposed to destabilization on ethno - religious grounds due to its cultural, civilizational, ethnic, and territorial heterogeneity, the presence in almost every country of large titular nations (ethnic groups or groups of ethnic groups) and marginal ethnic groups, often separated by borders during decolonization and nation-building, and, as a rule, significantly reduced by the number of ethnic groups in the region. lagging behind the main ethnic groups in terms of socio-economic development. The reasons for the current emergence of hotbeds of ethnopolitical and religious instability are primarily related to the consequences of the Asian crisis of 1997 - 1998, with the growth of ethnic diversity in the region.-

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the influence of the external factor (so far limited) - Muslim fundamentalism and extremism-on the self-awareness of peripheral ethnic groups. In general, ethno-confessional problems as a long-term factor of instability will be fully inherited by the XXI century. Further involvement of the region in global systems is unlikely to help reduce the level of ethnic conflicts. On the contrary, in the near future it is possible to strengthen separatist tendencies and expand the zone of terrorism.

S. A. Bylinyak in the report " South-East Asia: financial shocks or development deadlock?" I considered two questions: what are the prospects for further development of South-East and East Asia (SEEA) and will the region once again become the most dynamic in the global economy? He analyzed the existing extreme approaches to analyzing the causes of the 1997-1998 crisis: external - fundamental (deterioration of the terms of trade, etc.), subjective (Western policy, currency speculation), and internal (implementation of vicious economic policies). According to the speaker, both approaches are counterproductive if they are considered from the point of view of anti-crisis regulation. In the first case, all responsibility for the crisis is removed from the governments and business circles of the affected countries, in the second - from international institutions (primarily the IMF), rating agencies, lenders and investors who failed to assess the risks associated with the movement of capital.

S. A. Bylinyak does not belittle the importance of business circles ' ties with the government (stop capitalism) in the development of the crisis, but does not consider them the main cause of it. In his opinion, the Asian crisis can be defined as a product of the globalization of financial flows superimposed on a specific economic environment. The crisis is the result of the interaction of two liberalizations: the liberalization of global financial flows and the liberalization of capital transactions in countries that have experienced a crisis. With the transition of anti-crisis measures from macroeconomic to institutional reforms in the direction of the financial market, banks, and the corporate sector, the situation began to stabilize. However, it will take a long time to overcome the economic difficulties revealed by the crisis. The East Asian model has serious weaknesses and its mechanism needs to be adjusted. But the potential of the model is not exhausted, and it is premature to talk about its impasse.

O. G. Baryshnikova in her report "South-East Asia in 2000: cardinal changes in the economy and society" analyzed the main features of the initial stage of the second economic modernization in the region, based on high technologies. She connects the ongoing changes in the economy and society with the expansion of the process of introducing "high-tech" in national production and services, with computerization and the development of telecommunications. In each Southeast Asian country, depending on the level of development and national characteristics, the importance of pragmatism increases both in the economy and in socio - political life. The impact of information revolution factors is more significant and widespread in five economically developed countries-Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia.

Since the beginning of the new century, the group of countries listed above has been noticeably accelerating the process of creating industries of the "new economy" that use high technologies, in particular in business management: a gradual transition to the standards of modern management, adapting its ideas and principles to national conditions. Options programs are being introduced into the corporate culture, and the transparency of firms ' activities is increasing.

Based on estimates of the current level of economic development and the changes taking place in it, O. G. Baryshnikova believes that as digital technologies are introduced, the process of information inequality will deepen between three groups of countries (Singapore, the" four " economically more developed and the rest less developed), as well as between individual states, and thus create obstacles to their convergence. economies. Only in the more distant future, with the technical and technological development of all countries in the region and the growth of intersectoral trade in high-tech goods and services between them, will their economies begin to converge.

In accordance with the conference theme, the presentations are presented in three blocks: politics and geopolitics (general problems), economics (general problems), and country problems.

The first block contains the following messages.

V. A. Tyurin (zh. "Vostok") in the message "Southeast Asia in the light of globalization theories" focused on the problem of the transformational cliff that humanity has reached at the end of the second millennium. Among the many debatable problems of the late twentieth century, one of the central problems of the-

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The main problem is the formation of an alternative civilization to the world North, covering East and South-East Asia - the "New East". This phenomenon can be considered not only as a desire for external attributes of modernity, but also as an attempt to overcome the worldliness of the world, reducing its diversity to a flat perspective of a neo-pagan and pseudo-consumer society in the West and quasi-fundamentalism in the East. In these circumstances, a special role is played by studying the history of Southeast Asia, its fundamental foundations, which are so clearly manifested today (it is enough to point out the paradox: the reaction of "modernist" Malaysia and more "traditionalist" Indonesia to the financial crisis of 1997-1998 is illogical from the point of view of today). According to the speaker, it is impossible to understand the phenomenon of the region Southeast Asia (including its " unity in diversity "project) without understanding not only the current circumstances and development trends, but also the deep "eternal" foundations of its culture (in the broad sense of the word), i.e. the very foundations of its historical existence.

E. A. Cherepneva (IB RAS) noted that globalization, the movement towards a unipolar world and the reaction to this process in Southeast Asia in particular, can be viewed in two historical dimensions: on the scale of civilization and on the scale of the century. In the XXI century, the movement towards the formation of a "New East", a new civilizational space as opposed to Western civilization, is extremely problematic - the East is too diverse culturally and confessionally. For example, in Indonesia, various features of the East are focused: the largest Muslim country in the world by population, it simultaneously belongs to the unique civilization of Southeast Asia and has its own characteristics. Integration of Southeast Asia with both the Confucian and Islamic worlds is unlikely. Within the Islamic world itself, territorial and intra-confessional conflicts are constantly occurring. At the same time, Southeast Asia is becoming part of the global "new economy", a global supplier of microchips, etc.

In R. E. Sevortian's report "The need for a new interdisciplinary approach" , assessments of the prospects for the state - political development of Indonesia are based on a new approach to the problem of state formation and disintegration. To answer the question of whether Indonesian statehood will be strengthened after the incomplete withdrawal of the military, or whether irreversible disintegration processes will continue (resulting in the emergence of a number of "mini - Indonesia"), a comprehensive approach is needed, including, in particular, an analysis of the impact of global structures (the IMF, IBRD, TNCs, etc. ) on maintaining the stability of Indonesia as a state. An analysis of the interethnic situation in Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries is also needed. According to the author, the optimal model is the Malaysian one, which is based on the principle of consent of national elites.

I. A. Razumovsky (Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences) considered the peculiarities of Japanese diplomacy in Southeast Asia, which has always paid extremely great attention to the Asian direction. In particular, when analyzing the specifics of Japanese policy in Southeast Asia, many researchers rightly pay attention to solid non-annual loans, technical assistance, and grants. However, in recent years, Japan has become more active in using foreign policy propaganda, namely information and cultural events aimed at the population of the region, to ensure its national interests in the region. Both governmental (MFA) and non-governmental organizations (Japan Foundation, NHK Foreign Broadcasting Company) are involved in creating a favorable image of Japan among the peoples of Southeast Asia. At the same time, the object of influence of Japanese foreign policy propaganda is represented by two categories of the local population: the elite (political, business, cultural) and the broad popular strata.

V. A. Fedorov (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) highlighted the peculiarities of the struggle of the Southeast Asian countries with various anti-government armed movements. Counterinsurgency concepts that take into account the social base, political orientations, and support for insurgents from the local population and from outside, provide for a set of socio-economic, informational, psychological, diplomatic, and other measures along with armed suppression. Their goal is to undermine the social base of the insurgents, attract the population to the side of the government, and resolve conflicts by non-military measures (southern Thailand, the Philippines, and Burma in the 80s and 90s). The recent intensification of extremist groups in Indonesia and the Philippines, which are part of a global network of Islamist organizations, requires close cooperation between the governments of these countries and international anti-terrorist centers, and the use of generally accepted measures in the fight against terrorism.

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The Economics section opened with a report by A. I. Dinkevich (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) "On the threshold of the XXI century: South-East Asia in the context of global development", which emphasized that the prospects for economic growth in the countries of South-East Asia are inseparable from the general patterns of development of the world economy. In the context of the NTR and its current stage - the information revolution-they are forming a model of the "new economy", which embodies the general direction of economic development on a global scale. The national-specific factors of development of the region, as well as the entire developing world, are superimposed on a complex of external factors, the role and significance of which naturally increases in the context of globalization. According to A. I. Dinkevich, when implementing the "new economy" model, the ASEAN countries may find themselves in more favorable conditions compared to other regions of the third world. At the same time, we should keep in mind the possible negative impact of a number of constraints (resource factor, environmental conditions, contradictions of scientific and technological progress, etc.) that can significantly modify the development process.A. I. Dinkevich believes that in the future we should expect a change in the regional development model.

V. M. Nemchinov (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in his report "Globalization processes and economic development of South-East Asia" considers the formation of a self-sufficient group of countries connected by constantly growing commodity, financial and credit, transport and information flows to be the main result of the region's development in the second half of the 20th century. In his opinion, while preserving cultural diversity and developing non-traditional forms of social organization, the ASEAN countries have largely managed to overcome their peripheral position and become an integral part of the Pacific community. Unlike the Eurasian states with a newly developed market system, the Southeast Asian states have all the conditions for self-sustaining growth in the short and medium term. Although the ecological and social situation in the region will continue to worsen, there are serious prerequisites for defusing the emerging tensions, primarily through balanced participation in the processes of economic globalization and through the operation of national mechanisms for making rational decisions.

In the report of M. A. Ignatskaya (RUDN University) "Southeast Asia in the context of globalization: new trends in business management", the growing influence of international management on corporate management in the "new economy" industries was noted. In the world business at the present stage and in the future, the factor of globalization, which contributes to the unification of forms and methods of economic organization and management, is of fundamental importance.

To a large extent, the use of Western management schemes is facilitated by the growing activity of TNCs and TNBS in the region.

Traditional principles of Chinese management, typical for large family businesses in the region, are gradually, though slowly, losing ground to modern management methods focused on the introduction of information technologies. The young and middle generation of corporate capital representatives who were educated in the West, primarily in the United States, were the first in Southeast Asia to apply a number of important Western-style management principles in their business.

N. G. Rogozhina (IMEMO RAS) in her report "Environmental pros and cons of the financial crisis in Southeast Asian countries" noted that the financial crisis has reversed the process of greening social development. Poverty and technological backwardness - the socio-economic causes of the environmental crisis-are increasing. Nevertheless, the economic crisis provides an opportunity for the Southeast Asian countries to reorient their development strategy towards achieving long-term environmentally oriented sustainable growth. In this regard, it is necessary to comprehensively address economic and environmental issues in the course of reforming the tax system, pricing mechanism, administrative and political spheres.

G. S. Shabalina (IV RAS), in her report "The role of knowledge and information in overcoming inequality in development levels", noted the active participation of representatives of Southeast Asian countries in the APEC Forum summits in Brunei and ASEAN (10+3 formula) in Singapore, held in November 2000. Information technology implementation programs are active in Singapore and are under development in Malaysia, Indonesia, and other ASEAN countries. According to G. S. Shabalina, the implementation of the programs will contribute to the development of educational institutions.-

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in the countries of the region. So far, information inequality between individual States hinders the solution of the tasks set out in the programs. The idea of creating a single information space on the territory of Southeast Asia, put forward in the Singapore summit statement, is obviously not feasible in the near future. Representatives of the Southeast Asian countries expressed their hope for the help of economically more developed countries in promoting high-tech in the region.

A. A. Simonia's report "ASEAN Countries in an unstable Oil Market" analyzes the factors influencing fluctuations in world oil prices over the past decade, in particular, the Asian financial crisis and subsequent economic recovery. A. A. Simonia attributes the movement of world oil prices in 2000 to the problems of the ASEAN oil exporting countries caused by the depletion of oil reserves. She noted that the attractiveness of these countries for investment in oil exploration by the world's largest oil corporations is decreasing. In her opinion, the future of the region will largely depend on the significant natural gas reserves available here, the joint development of its fields and the construction of deep-water gas pipelines connecting the countries of the region.

V. A. Yashkin (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in the report "Prospects for the development of cooperation between the Asia-Pacific region and Russia" described the experts ' assessment of the causes of the currency and financial crisis in Asia and the prospects for the economic development of the Asia-Pacific region. V. A. Yashkin agrees with their conclusions that the crisis in the countries of the region is - public and private, planned and market, directive and indicative. In his opinion, the restoration of their disturbed balance will lead to economic growth and, quite possibly, to the strengthening of the region's role in the world economy. The specific parameters of economic growth will depend on a combination of many internal and non-regional factors. Assessing the prospects for Russia's economic development and cooperation with the Asia-Pacific region, V. A. Yashkin comes to the conclusion that in the near future the peripheral position of the Russian Federation in the Asia-Pacific economy will remain. At the same time, he believes, there are opportunities to strengthen our position in the Asia-Pacific economy.

E. S. Grebenshchikov (IMEMO RAS) 'Russia and Southeast Asia in a Single Conceptual Space of Competition for Investment' analyzes unexpected parallels, potential areas of competition, and comparative competitive advantages of Russia and a number of Asia-Pacific countries. With many similar characteristics (the quality of the state apparatus, the level of corruption, the legislative environment and the state of the judicial system, the incompleteness of institutional reforms, and other features of transition economies) The Southeast Asian countries have gained a significant advantage over Russia, thanks to the attraction of a huge scale of foreign, and along with it, managerial experience, familiarization with the world economy. At the same time, E. S. Grebenshchikov notes the poor quality of economic growth in the ASEAN countries. Among the common challenges facing both Russia and the countries of the region are: attracting high-quality long-term investments; restoring confidence among partners and depositors; achieving a balanced budget; improving and recapitalizing the banking system; developing an optimal credit policy; discussing and coordinating industrial and financial policies with the World Bank and the IMF; reducing the dependence of economic growth on the Russian economy. growth from export markets and commodity price conditions; regulation of relations between financial and industrial groups (conglomerates) and government authorities; reform of natural monopolies.

A. A. Rogozhin (IMEMO) described the main spectrum of Russian economic interests in Southeast Asia, identifying both the real interests that have already been formed and the most likely ones that can be expected to appear in the first decade of the XXI century. He believes that Russia's main interests in the region now and in the next decade lie in the sphere of trade. Russia's trade operations with Southeast Asian countries are quite significant in terms of volume - even according to official data, their volume exceeds the turnover of all Russian - African trade by 2.5 times. However, the actual volume of trade between Russia and these countries, according to the speaker, exceeds the officially recorded 1.7 times. Trade with Southeast Asian countries is beneficial for Russia - their combined positive balance for 1992-1999 amounted, according to official data, to almost $ 3.5 billion. (in fact, over $ 4.5 billion). The commodity structure of mutual trade fairly fully reflected real export trends-

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opportunities of Russia and our partners in the region. Investment cooperation between Russia and the Southeast Asian countries is mostly carried out in forms hidden from the official authorities and is not registered by them, which significantly complicates their analysis. A. A. Rogozhin described in detail the circumstances both favorable and hindering, in his opinion, the development of economic cooperation between Russia and the Southeast Asian countries, and also proposed specific measures to protect economic interests Russia in the region.

I. Yu. Avdakov (Institute of Railway Transport of the Russian Academy of Sciences) spoke about the role of railway transport in the development of integration processes in the Asia-Pacific region. He paid special attention to ESCAP's plans for organizing the railway network of Southeast Asian countries and the possibilities of connecting it to the Trans-Asian Railway through the territory of the PRC. Avdakov cited the opinions of various experts on the importance of connecting the railway tracks of Cambodia and China (prov. Yunan), Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore and Vietnam to promote international trade and tourism in the region. The implementation of the project, he noted, depends primarily on external and internal funding.

N. Yu. Ageev's report "Economic recovery of the Greater East Asian countries and the growth of world oil prices" examines the most important sources of real gross product growth in the countries of Southeast and East Asia (excluding Japan) in the 1990s. According to his estimate, in 2000 only on the island of Taiwan's GDP growth has exceeded the pre-crisis level (6.2% in 2000 versus 5.4% in 1996). The recovery in the economies of the Southeast Asian countries is accompanied by an increase in energy consumption, especially oil. Experts believe that oil consumption in the top 10 countries of the Southeast Asian region, including Japan, should increase. The increase in demand for oil in Southeast Asia in 2000 was one of the main reasons for the increase in world oil prices.

A. I. Salitsky (Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in his report "China's Relations with Greater East Asia" highlighted some trends in the development of China's foreign economic relations with this region in recent years. Exceptionally high growth rates of foreign trade between them indicate the resumption of integration processes in Greater East Asia, interrupted by the crisis of 1997-1998. A. I. Salitsky noted the superiority of China's export dynamics over the corresponding indicators of the Southeast Asian countries. This fact indicates a higher competitiveness of the Chinese economy in comparison with the new industrializing countries of the first and second wave (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam). The strength of China's position in foreign markets is based not only on price factors, but also on the growing complexity of the Chinese economy, the high role of the state in the development and coordination of trade relations with foreign countries. The ongoing rise of the Chinese economy strengthens the political position of the PRC and significantly changes the nature of its relations with many states in the region and international organizations.

The third block, "Country Problems", was opened by A. Y. Drugov (IB RAS) with the message "Indonesia - some preliminary results of post-Suharto development". After the events of May 1998, he noted, society, freed from repressive authoritarianism, tried to find a way to modernize the political system. The merit of President Abd Wahid, as well as his predecessor B. Y. Habibi, is beyond doubt. However, the progress of the reform is hindered by a number of factors: the political limitations of the elite, the looseness of the political structure after the removal of the army as a structural element, and tensions in the ethno-social and religious spheres. In such conditions, there is a high probability of reviving the craving for a "strong hand", for the power of the army. The growing anti-Western and anti-American sentiment among the masses indicates Indonesia's rejection of the unipolar world model.

A.V. Popov (IB RAS) 'Indonesia: Economy as a Concentrated expression of Politics' emphasized that by the end of 2000, the country was experiencing noticeable economic growth (at the level of 4.5-5%), budget revenues increased as a result of rising world oil prices, and exports were developing well. However, due to public disillusionment with the policy of A. Wahid, who was accused of inattention to the country's internal problems, incompetence, a split in political circles, and as a result - the presence of political instability in Indonesian society, the stock market began to rush again, and the Indonesian rupee exchange rate fell to almost 9500 rupees per 1 am by mid-December 2000. dol. Numerous interethnic and interfaith clashes are escalating. In the desire for political independence of individual districts in the conditions of the weakening center, a significant role is being played.

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The role is played by the desire of local elites to redistribute income from economic resources in their favor, cutting the lion's share of the center, or to dispose of them completely. Prospects for the development of events in Indonesia, according to A. V. Popov, largely depend on the possession by certain representatives of certain political circles of power, the participation in political life at crucial moments of representatives of certain strata of society, including the Suharto clan, the youth movement and, not least, the army circles, a certain part of which is eager for political leadership. a rematch.

I. V. Lozhkareva (IB RAS) used the example of Indonesia to continue the topic of the situation in a number of Southeast Asian countries in the context of the unstable global oil market.

A comparative analysis of the government programs of Indonesia and Malaysia to overcome the financial and economic crisis and its consequences was presented by L. F. Pakhomova (IB RAS). Having refused financial assistance and recommendations of the IMF, she noted, the Malaysian government of Mahathir Mohamad at the end of 1998 resorted to temporary emergency measures to establish currency controls and protect the national currency, etc. A number of measures were implemented to prevent mass bankruptcy of enterprises and banks. At the same time, a liberal investment regime has been implemented and remains in place, with a certain degree of political stability in the country. By the end of 2000, Malaysia's annual GDP growth rate was 7.7%. Indonesia, determining ways out of the financial and economic crisis in the face of an acute political situation in the country, was guided by the recommendations of the IMF experts and resorted to its financial assistance. This, according to L. F. Pakhomova, increased its debt obligations and led to certain miscalculations in determining the development strategy from a social and political point of view, to the detriment of the interests of the general population. The new government of A. Wahid seeks to weaken the role of the IMF, resorting to the help of other external donors. New economic recovery programs have been developed and should be included in the revised agreement with the IMF. By the end of 2000, annual GDP growth was 5.1%. However, the severe consequences of the socio-economic crisis have not yet been overcome. According to the regional consulting service, at the end of 2000 Indonesia was the most "stressed" out of the 12 SEEA countries, where foreign investors feel the most "uncomfortable".

V. A. Tsyganov's speech (ISAA at Moscow State University) is devoted to the development of the Malaysian political system under Mahathir Mohamad. In fact, his 20-year tenure as prime Minister has been marked by a number of achievements. One of the main ones is the country's rather successful recovery from the financial and economic crisis of 1997-1998, despite pressure from the West and internal opposition. It demonstrates the viability of a political system based on the effective cooperation of national elites in the joint management of the country. Malaysia's experience forces us to abandon a simplified understanding of the relationship between democracy and authoritarianism. The development of truly democratic institutions and procedures in the country (elections, party struggle, etc.) is combined with the use of harsh authoritarian methods and the suppression of any manifestations of opposition. As a result, a complex and fragile internal political balance of power has developed, the violation of which is fraught with unpredictable consequences.

The peculiarity of the Malaysian way out of the crisis, according to M. N. Gusev (IB RAS), should be considered as a reflection of the power struggle between Mahathir Mohamad and his deputy Ibrahim Anwar. Mahathir Mohamad, contrary to Ibrahim Anwar's commitment to Western values, played his attitude to the IMF as one of the cards. Mahathir Mohamad's rejection of the Fund's assistance and recommendations was a carefully considered move that took into account the country's economic opportunities. Malaysia is successfully emerging from the crisis. As a result of this struggle, Mahathir lost his credibility in the international arena. The Prime Minister's miscalculations affected the results of the parliamentary elections in late 1999. Its mainstay, the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), lost 27% of its parliamentary seats.

E. V. Ivankina (IB RAS) noted that Mahathir's national development strategy for the last decade of the XX century and for the first decades of the XXI century is set out in the so-called "Concept 2020", or "Perspective 2020", according to which the country should turn into a powerful, industrially developed state. With the priority development of the Malay community, it was supposed to eliminate socio - economic disparities and ensure the harmonious formation of a single Malaysian nation based on three ethnic groups-Malays, Chinese and Indians.

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In the report "National-State construction in Singapore" E. M. Gurevich (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) focused on its features in a multinational state with a numerical predominance of the Chinese ethnic group (77%). The formation of a nation in Singapore is a two-way process of bringing together different ethnic groups based on the English language and forming a common supra-ethnic urban culture. At this stage, a stable Singapore identity is being formed, more precisely, civil and political unity within the framework of a sovereign state. Turning this unity into a nation takes a much longer time than Singapore's 35 years of independent development.

Singapore, which is also the subject of M. G. Osipova's speech (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences), is entering the stage of intensive construction of the "new economy"at a new stage of modernization of the country. It is a center of high technology and knowledge. Relevant state scientific programs are being developed. The introduction of the Internet has completely transformed the service sector, raising it to a qualitatively new level. It is significant that by the end of 2000, Singapore significantly surpassed Hong Kong (Hong Kong) and Taiwan in terms of the number of Internet users (per 10,000 inhabitants).

Singapore's involvement in globalization is an objective process. Recently, there has been a tendency to develop Singapore's trade and economic relations on a bilateral basis outside the framework of ASEAN with Asian states-Japan, China, Australia, etc. Singapore remains very attractive for potential investors, but they (as well as representatives of the business community of Singapore itself) are constrained by the presence of a certain political risk associated with its unfavorable regional environment, its neighborhood with unstable Indonesia.

The topic of V. V. Sumsky's speech (IMEMO) is " Reform or revolution? The unsolvable dilemma of the Philippines in the XX century". The path taken by the Philippines after the revolution of 1896 (the"slack" between reform and revolution), V. V. Sumsky analyzes, based on the works of S. N. Eisenstadt. The revolution of 1896 belonged to events that only superficially resembled revolutions, which did not give the effect of overlapping changes (according to Eisenstadt), and as a result received an outlet in neo-patrimonialism. The conclusion is confirmed by the post-revolutionary history of the Philippines: the" reform stability " of non-patrimonial structures combined with political instability. The elites 'response to the threat of" revolution from below "is repression and populism as the highest form of "revolution from above". Her most serious attempt is F. Marcos's "new society" (1972-1986). The overthrow of the authoritarian regime by the "February Revolution" of 1986 raised many expectations. In fact, by removing Marcos, Philippine democracy has only cleared the way for another revitalization of the oligarchy.

Three messages were dedicated to Thailand. V. A. Dolnikova (ISAA) reviewed the social changes taking place in this country. The development of capitalism, the intensive process of modernization of the economy and management, and the acceleration of the pace of development of Thailand in the 80s and 90s were accompanied by profound changes in the social structure of society. The national bourgeoisie, the middle class and other strata associated with the modern sector of the economy were formed. Political changes significantly lagged behind shifts in the socio-economic sphere. This was due to the preservation of traditional patronage relations in society and the power of the bureaucracy, which was the basis of political conservatism. There were also some political changes, especially in the second half of the 1990s. The confrontation between supporters of authoritarianism and dictatorship and supporters of liberal - democratic development paths has escalated to the limit. The beginning of a new stage of political change was marked by the victory of the democratic forces in September 1992. The resistance of authoritarian military groups was broken and representative forms of government were firmly established. They are legally enshrined in the new Constitution of 1997, adopted under pressure and with the participation of broad sections of the Thai public.

E. A. Fomicheva (IB RAS) in her speech "Thailand in 2000 - a new stage of political reform against the background of socio-economic problems" summed up some results of the country's political development. The beginning of 2000 was marked by the first elections to the Senate in the country's history, and preparations for parliamentary elections in January 2001 (under the new constitution). There are two points of view (in political and intellectual circles) on the degree of maturity of the Thai political system. Proponents of the first one speak about its development and the beginning of the formation of civil society. Proponents of the second believe that in society, especially in the provinces,

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traditional patriarchal vertical ties based on the exchange of mutual services still prevail.

E. M. Astafieva (IB RAS) based her report "Banking System of Thailand" on a lot of factual material. She stressed that Thailand is gradually emerging from the 1997-1998 financial crisis, although it will take some time to overcome it. The exchange rate of the national currency, the baht, has stabilized, the economy is reviving (GDP growth in 2000 was estimated at 6.6%, and in 2001 it is projected at 5%), and a program of economic and financial adjustment is being implemented.

With the post " Political perspectives in Burma (Myanmar)" V. F. Vasiliev (IB RAS) made a speech. He noted that by the end of the 20th century, there were no changes for the better. Myanmar is entering the 21st century with one of the toughest military dictatorships. According to the author, the anti-democratic course of the military regime deserves condemnation, as well as some actions of the democratic opposition, for example, demands to strengthen international sanctions against Myanmar, including economic ones that affect the interests of the people. The speaker sees a way out of the political crisis in the gradual settlement of relations between the government and the opposition. One of the real steps in this direction was the start of negotiations between them.

Structural changes in the economy of Myanmar at the end of 2000 were considered by A. P. Muranova (IB RAS). As a result of the policy of liberalization and structural reforms implemented by the military Government that came to power in 1998, the country's economy has undergone significant changes. The role of the state in the economy has significantly decreased. The share of the public sector in GDP production decreased from 40% in the mid-1980s to 23% in 1997, in manufacturing output - from 59% to 29%, in mining-from 89% to 58%, in domestic trade - from 40% to 14%, in exports and imports - from 100 up to 48% and 39%, respectively. Private, including foreign, entrepreneurship is developing rapidly. The economic structure is also being transformed: in the industrial sphere of employment and GDP production, the share of the agricultural sector is decreasing and the share of modern industries is increasing. The share of the accumulation fund increases in the structure of GDP use. The share of manufactured goods in exports has increased.

Several reports were devoted to the economic development of Vietnam. A. A. Sokolov (IB RAS) noted that in 2000 there were trends of further stabilization of the national economy of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. A significant indicator of its development is the GDP growth by 7% by the end of 2000. The volume of foreign capital investments has increased, and exports continue to increase. Foreign donors have decided to provide $ 2.4 billion to Vietnam. as concessional loans and loans for the development of the economy.

Nikolai Maletin (MGIMO of the Russian Foreign Ministry) noted that the successful combination of the policy of national renewal with an effective foreign policy strategy allowed Vietnam to become a worthy partner in economic and political cooperation of both ASEAN member states and other states. According to N. P. Maletin, the Russian direction can remain one of the priorities in Vietnam's foreign policy with adequate efforts on both sides.

Murasheva G. F. (IB RAS) considered economic and political aspects of Vietnam-Russia cooperation and its prospects in the XXI century. She stressed that bilateral cooperation between our countries is developing in the context of globalization: the emergence of new powerful competitors in industries where Russia previously held leading positions makes its presence in Vietnam vulnerable and unstable. Vietnam's foreign policy priority is focusing on the United States and China. At the same time, Vietnam will undoubtedly try to take advantage of the contradictions between these countries in Southeast Asia.

G. V. Birina (IB RAS) analyzed the changes in Vietnam's economic development in 2000. GDP grew by 4.8% in 1999, 6.7% in 2000, industrial production by 10.4% and 15.5%, respectively, and rice harvesting increased from 31 million tons in 1999 to 32.7 million tons in 2000. The Government's economic reform program provides for easing the burden of pressure from inefficient state-owned enterprises on the budget, further developing the private sector, liberalizing trade policy, and reforming Vietnam's financial system as a whole.

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Speech by Pavel Goncharov (Russian Foreign Ministry) is devoted to the current political development of Cambodia. He noted that the internal political situation in the country has stabilized after the 1998 parliamentary elections. This was facilitated by the effective mechanism of interaction between the parties of the ruling coalition - the People's Party (NPC) and the Royalist FUNCINPEC, smoothing out the contradictions between their leaders Hun Sen and N. Riparit. Nevertheless, a number of factors can lead to a sharp destabilization under certain circumstances. The main ones are: personal antipathies of the leaders, factionalism in the NPC, advanced age and poor health of N. Sihanouk (in case of his death, a struggle for the throne is inevitable). Pressure on Cambodia from the West, especially the United States, to speed up the trial of the Khmer Rouge leaders, may provoke the latter to resume armed struggle.

The problem of modern development of Laos is the topic of S. I. Ioanesyan's speech (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences). The country remains committed to market-based methods of managing the economy, while at the same time not rejecting the socialist perspective of building a society. After the Asian crisis, there was a tendency to stabilize production, the financial situation, and the activation of foreign trade activities. In accordance with the state program, by 2020 it is planned to bring the country out of the list of the most backward countries in Asia.

The practice of holding annual scientific conferences by the Department of Southeast Asia shows that the discussion of new realities of the current development of Southeast Asia and trends in the possible evolution of the region in the future attracts the attention of the scientific community and interested practical organizations.

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