On February 18-19, 2002, the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences hosted the next annual scientific conference on the problems of modern development of Southeast Asia, organized by the Department of Southeast Asia of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Employees of academic institutes and higher educational institutions of Moscow, employees of practical organizations participated in its work. The conference was dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the birth of Academician A. A. Huber, the founder of the direction in Russian Oriental studies - the study of Southeast Asia.

In the opening speech of the Deputy. Director of the Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences N. Z. Yegorin emphasized the importance of A. A. Huber's works for Southeast Asian studies. He also noted the scientific and practical relevance of the conference topic: links of regional and country issues with global problems and assessments of the current state and prospects for the development of relations between Russia and Southeast Asian countries.

The contribution of A. A. Huber to the formation and development of research in the Southeast Asian region was discussed in the speeches of A. Yu. Drugov (IB RAS) and Yu. N. Gavrilov (Vostochny University at IB RAS). For the outside world, Drugov said, A. A. Guber is an academician, professor, director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the USSR Academy of Sciences, member of various scientific councils, deputy academician-Secretary of the Department of History of the USSR Academy of Sciences, etc.For most of us, he is a Teacher, the founder of the branch of science that we serve. All Indonesian scholars "came out of the works" of A. A. Huber, he became the discoverer of the planet called "Indonesia" in our country, and many of his works remain unsurpassed in the richness of material and breadth of generalizations. The same can be said by those of us who deal with the Philippines (it is enough to mention his work "The Philippine Republic of 1898 and American imperialism" and the biography of Jose Rizal). Another country to which he paid no less attention in the post-war period than Indonesia was Vietnam. A. A. Huber's research was very relevant. And he encouraged his students to find an exact correlation between the study of modernity and the distant past, rightly believing that without this it is impossible to correctly understand the events unfolding before our eyes. There were also works on the history of Latin America, India, and Afghanistan. He was extremely demanding and kind to students, democratic in discussion and respectful of the opinions of colleagues, regardless of the age difference and academic degrees. One of his contemporaries said: "The personality of Alexander Andreevich was so significant, his moral qualities were so high, that people turned to him with their best side."

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Yu. N. Gavrilov spoke about the life and scientific work of A. A. Guber - an extraordinary talented scientist, charming, sympathetic, noble man, a polymath who spoke an amazing language in terms of accuracy and beauty*.

The main presentations at the conference were made by the heads of the Department. Department of Southeast Asia D. V. Mosyakov and O. G. Baryshnikova (IB RAS).

D. V. Mosyakov's report "Sino-Japanese contradictions and problems of regional consolidation in East and South - East Asia" considered the current geopolitical situation in Southeast Asia through the prism of increasing rivalry between China and Japan, which predetermines new trends in the development of the region, in particular, the rejection of the project of forming a regional community according to the 10+3 formula (the Asean Ten plus China, Japan, and South Korea). Instead, in November 2001, the ASEAN countries signed an agreement with China to establish a free trade zone with China within the next 10 years. In response, the Japanese side proposed the idea of creating a common market to the most developed ASEAN countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia). In 2001, the role of the ASEAN countries in the process of regional consolidation became more clearly defined - they could no longer be considered as equal subjects of this process, but as objects of the growing Sino-Japanese struggle for dominance in the region.

An important place in the confrontation between China and Japan, in addition to a complex of economic and military-political issues, is occupied by their attitude to common cultural and historical origins (Buddhist-Confucian civilization according to S. Huntington). China includes Japan in this world based on the values of ancient Chinese civilization. In Japan, however, there is a widespread belief that there are two different types of Asian cultures in WA and Southeast Asia - oceanic (its main carrier is Japan) and continental (respectively, represented by China). These days, the Japanese see themselves as a strong, self-sufficient nation, culturally more West-oriented than China. Social studies in both countries have not revealed a deep reciprocity in Japanese-Chinese relations (less than 50% of Japanese people are sympathetic to the Chinese, and only 10% of Chinese people are positive to the Japanese, and 44% are negative). It is known that all the recent Japanese-Chinese negotiations (at various levels) were unsuccessful. Apparently, Japan is reviewing the entire structure of relations with China. The view that the "policy of compromise and economic assistance" is unprofitable for Japan is becoming increasingly popular in the country, as it objectively contributes to the growth of Chinese power.

China, in turn, is actively pursuing its policy in the ASEAN countries. Although the latter are afraid of the threat of Chinese expansionism, they nevertheless agreed to sign the agreement on the creation of a joint free trade zone with China mentioned above, seeing in this a broader opportunity to overcome the threatening economic crisis affecting the most developed countries of the region. The Japanese common market model is less attractive for ASEAN countries (it provides for bilateral relations and does not clarify the issue of investment). Already based on these two projects, we can assume the possibility of a split in Southeast Asia. More developed countries will join the bloc with Japan, and less developed ones with China. But it is possible that the most developed countries of Southeast Asia will also start to drift towards closer relations with China. It is difficult to make any accurate predictions about the future development of the situation in Southeast Asia, but in the language of conflictology, the transfer of Japanese-Chinese contradictions from the non-actualized to the actualized phase can once again turn Southeast Asia into the sphere of contradictions of the great Asian powers with all the consequences that follow for their independence and stability.

O. G. Baryshnikova's report "South-East Asia in the first years of the XXI century" examines changes in the economy of the most developed countries of the region - Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia, which occurred under the influence of negative external and internal factors. Special attention is paid to the main external factor - recessions in three world centers-the USA, Japan and the European Union countries, with which the region's economy is closely connected. Among the internal factors hindering economic development, the speaker noted that the implementation of post-crisis economic strategies is too slow (except for-

* For more information about the life and creative path of A. A. Guber, see: Gavrilov Yu. N. Academician Alexander Andreevich Guber (on the centenary of his birth) // East (Oriens). 2002. N 2. pp. 116-134.

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Singapore), their lack of development, the delay in the structural adjustment of the economy, and the corruption of officials, including members of the upper - echelon state apparatus (least of all in Singapore). The use of information technologies contributes to a certain degree of improving production efficiency, but not to the extent that it can contain the decline in economic growth. And what's more, it's a sharp decline in production (but not usage!) The decline in demand for electronics in the world's economic centers, primarily in the United States, was the main source of reduced growth in this group of Southeast Asian countries. The speaker confirms his conclusions with data on changes in macroeconomic indicators in 2000-2001.

O.G. Baryshnikova divides the Southeast Asian countries according to the level of implementation of information technology elements, based on the dynamics of indicators for 1995-2000, into three groups. The first group includes Singapore , the only country that is part of the group of "high - tech" owners of world significance, the second - Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia, and the third - Vietnam, which is more likely to be adjacent to Indonesia than to the rest of its group members-Laos, Cambodia and Burma. In the first two groups, only hardware is produced. Singapore does a bit of programming. The use of information technology in the region's countries, excluding Singapore, remains low as a proportion of the population, especially in the third group with backward economies. Users of network tools are unevenly distributed across countries, and the cyber market is fragmented. In 2002, inequality between countries will deepen in all these dimensions, as well as lagging behind the leading countries of the world. The emerging improvement in a number of economic indicators, primarily in the United States, should have a positive impact on the region: economic growth will accelerate somewhat, and the inflow of foreign investment will increase. And at the same time, a marked drop in demand in the US market for electronics (it is already largely filled) will be painful for its manufacturers and exporters in the region. The possible continuation of political and social conflicts, separatist actions and terrorist attacks by Islamist extremists will negatively affect the economy.

In accordance with the conference theme, the presentations were presented in three blocks: politics and geopolitics (general problems), economics (general problems), and country problems.

The first block was opened by V. A. Tyurin's report "Colonialism and Globalism" (Oriens magazine). In his opinion, globalization is not a completely new phenomenon, but rather another milestone in the development of the world, since the time of the Great Geographical Discoveries. The era of colonialism accelerated the formation of modern Western civilization. One of its main features was Eurocentrism, now it is the concept of the "golden billion" and Americanocentrism. The crisis of the colonial system can be seen as a reaction to the growing globalism. The latter, in contrast to globalization, i.e. the ability of the world to solve problems on a planetary scale, is a worldview that has its origins in Eurocentrism and is genetically linked to colonialism.

V. M. Nemchinov (Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences), in his report "Changing the Geopolitical Paradigm", examined the consequences of the events of September 11 on the example of the regional policy of the Southeast Asian countries. The ability of countries in the region to make rational, independent, individual and group decisions is largely due to their ability to distance themselves from the pressure of global power centers. In the last decade, only the inter-national financial mechanism has remained a powerful lever of influence on Southeast Asia. However, today the opportunities for differentiating the policies of regional players are sharply reduced due to the emergence of tough interaction on the issue of new criteria for supporting US steps in relation to "rogue states". Artificially induced consensus has allowed the formation of an order in which the mechanism of linking state actions ensures the selection of decisions without the possibility of arbitrary combinations on the part of national governments. Thus, the role of regional authorities is reduced and its certain alienation from natural motivations caused by local realities of life is achieved. According to the speaker, this creates a potential gap between the exercise of national power and the motives of its actions, and the external globalizing factor acquires a previously uncharacteristic function of restraining regional originality. He concludes that the main outcome of the current situation is

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Today, the situation will not be the eradication of international terrorism, but the increased possibility of converting the US global strategy into the economic policies of individual countries and regions.

The report by V. D. Marchukov (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation) contains an analysis of the problems of ensuring security in Southeast Asia. With the growing international importance of the region in the context of the globalization of the world, the issue of maintaining stability here is becoming a global one. But the main conflicts in Southeast Asia are still unresolved and sometimes approach a tough, almost military confrontation. Disputes over the ownership of islands in the South China Sea (SCM), which involve part of the Southeast Asian countries, China and Taiwan, are cited as an example of an acute, unsolvable conflict and serve as the subject of a multidimensional analysis. In connection with the conflict in the South China Sea, V. D. Marchukov examines the relations between ASEAN and China, as well as the positions of the United States and Japan, which, along with China, dominate the geopolitical landscape of Southeast Asia. Currently, all parties to disputes over these islands are aware of the dangers associated with a military solution to the conflict, advocating a political settlement. According to the author, one of the options for a political solution to the problem is the joint development of oil and gas fields in the disputed territories. Most of the ASEAN countries, Japan and South Korea are leaning towards this option, but China, the main "player" and potential hegemon in Southeast Asia and the Pacific, is not ready for such a decision. The South China Sea, apparently, will potentially be one of the" hot spots " of the planet until the disputes are resolved.

M. N. Gusev (Institute of Islamic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in his speech "Southeast Asia: the Fundamentalism syndrome" focused on the real, in his opinion, threat of conflict between Christianity and Islam that arose after the events of September 11, 2001. Southeast Asia, a significant part of the population of which professes Islam, becomes an attractive area for the spread of radical political Islam and the rise of Islamic fundamentalism (examples include Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines). The radicalization of Islam in the Southeast Asian countries is influenced by both external factors (the globalization of the world economy, accompanied by differentiation on a global scale and an increase in the number of"rogue" countries), and internal factors associated with the deterioration of the economic situation of the population (as a result of the Asian crisis) and, accordingly, the growth of social discontent and political destabilization.

V. A. Fedorov (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences) considered the peculiarities of the anti-terrorist campaign in the Southeast Asian countries. The war on "global terrorism" declared by President Bush has also partially spread to Southeast Asia, as extremist Islamic groups have become more active in recent years (Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines, Jihad Army in Indonesia, etc.). At the 7th ASEAN session in December 2001, the participants condemned the terrorist attacks in South Asia. The United States also called for the active participation of the countries of the region in the fight against terrorism through the exchange of intelligence information, strengthening the protection of joint borders, blocking the channels for smuggling weapons, drugs, etc. In January 2002, the United States provided military and financial assistance to the Philippines, as well as sent its military personnel to the country. According to V. A. Fedorov, Washington's actions, in addition to the fight against terrorists, are also aimed at resuming the use of Philippine territory as an important military base in the region.

N. G. Rogozhina (IMEMO RAS) noted that anti-globalism in Southeast Asia has become widespread among so-called fourth-generation non-governmental organizations that adhere to alternative positions on development issues. In terms of their ideological preferences, they are extremely close to anarchists and socialists, whose views and beliefs determine the content of anti-globalism. According to the speaker, the involvement of developing countries in the anti-globalist movement is in the interests of the latter's development, represented mainly by structures of Western society that gain their authority by discrediting the existing global political and economic system. At the same time, developing countries, including the Southeast Asian countries, are assigned a supporting role in the anti-globalist movement. N. G. Rogozhina believes that the appearance of an anti-globalist movement here does not mean the beginning of a large-scale political mobilization of the world's population against the existing world order (as the participants of the movement try to imagine). Rather, it expresses the desire of those who participate in it to preserve themselves as political structures, to survive by adapting to new conditions. -

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in the context of the development of the post-industrial world through the formation of a new strategy and tactics of activity.

The report of E. A. Cherepneva (Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences) "American studies of Southeast Asia in the 1990s" contains an analysis of the state of this branch of American Oriental studies. As E. A. Cherepneva notes, American scientists explain the reasons for the decline in US interest in the region at the end of the XX century. the end of the Cold war, the disappearance of the bipolar world. They recognize that the "postcolonial theory" and methodology of "postmodernism", "poststructuralism" and "post-Marxism" are unproductive in the current context, demonstrating the loss of old paradigms and failures in the search for new intellectual frameworks. One example of the theoretical impotence of American Southeast Asian studies is the lack of a regional development concept. At the same time, the new realities in the world caused by the fight against terrorism and Islamic extremism may soon revive US interest in the Southeast Asian region, where Indonesia is located, a country with a large Muslim population and where the Islamic movement is currently growing. This may provide an incentive to renew funding for US research in Southeast Asia.

The second block was opened by S. A. Bylinyak 's report "South-East and East Asia: Crises and development". In the second half of the 1990s, the countries of Southeast and East Asia faced deep crises; 1997-1998 was marked by an acute financial crisis - currency, stock market, banking. In 1999-2000, the crisis subsided and quite acceptable economic growth resumed. But already in 2001, a new crisis broke out, due to the recession in the global economy. It overlapped with an insurmountable banking crisis, which targets credit institutions and the corporate sector. S. A. Bylinyak notes that while the financial crisis mainly affected NIS-2 (Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines), as well as South Korea, the recession in the global economy hit NIS-1 the hardest (Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong), which have a more technically developed export structure. He concludes that, firstly, the period of long-term crisis-free development of the region is over. Secondly, these countries will have to seriously adjust their development strategy in the main areas that made them make an economic breakthrough. These are primarily: economic growth with a high rate of savings and capital investment; export-oriented economy; state participation in the reproduction process. The crises have shown that the East Asian model of development is not as perfect as previously thought, and needs serious adjustment, but not a change in strategy.

A. A. Rogozhin (IMEMO RAS), in his report "The Southeast Asian Economy in 2001: Worries and hopes of the region", noted three external factors that are most significant for analyzing the economic development of Southeast Asia in 2001. First, the global economic downturn that began at the end of the year. It turned out to be deeper, longer, and broader in scope than expected (and this also applies to the Greater East Asian economy, of which the Southeast Asian economy has long been an integral part). Secondly, the September 11 attacks and the events that followed brought an element of uncertainty to the world economy that was beginning to revive. In Southeast Asia, they mainly affected only two sectors - tourism and air transport. Third, the economic downturn in East Asia was deeper than expected. The recovery in the economy of this region will begin only closer to the middle of 2002. A. A. Rogozhin noted that the Southeast Asian countries were particularly affected by: The most difficult economic situation in Japan, the uncertainty caused by China's accession to the WTO, the consequences of the difficult transformation of the Chinese economy, the transfer of investment resources from Taiwan to China and the partial withdrawal of South Korean capital from Southeast Asia. At the same time, he believes that there is no reason to talk about the mass closure of enterprises of the "second Japanese economy" in the Southeast Asian countries. The latter also actively used the difficulties of the Chinese economy, "luring" capital, including regional Chinese, trying to implement the idea of creating a certain Asean-China economic space, attracting Taiwanese capital.

L. F. Pakhomova (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in her report "Globalization: National Approaches of Southeast Asian countries" noted that over the past five years, Southeast Asian countries, primarily Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore, have experienced the relationship between economic globalization and the globalization of crises. If the difficulties of 1997-1999 were mainly related to financial flows, then the deterioration of the global situation in subsequent years gave rise to problems.-

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data flows. The hard lessons of the crisis and the downturn in economic development required a reassessment of the effectiveness of key international organizations and the existing monetary and financial system. Under these conditions, the Southeast Asian countries put forward their own concepts of their reconstruction and take steps to create new economic entities. In particular, a currency swap pool, which could, in turn, serve as a prototype of a currency pool or some Asian monetary fund. Another example is the agreement on the creation of an East Asian Free Trade Zone. New entities are created on the basis of the ASEAN+3 formula, which significantly expands the regional boundaries of Southeast Asia for economic activity and integration processes. This, firstly, reflects a certain exhaustion of opportunities for integration of the ASEAN member countries at the present stage, secondly, indicates an increase in the uneven socio-economic development of individual countries in the region after the crisis, and thirdly, indicates the absence of an economically powerful state within the Association that can take on the role of a "locomotive" economic development. L. F. Pakhomova concludes that, despite the incompleteness of new forms of multilateral and bilateral cooperation (for example, Japan-Singapore), they indicate an intensive search for ways to create multipolarity in the economy.

The report by E. S. Grebenshchikov (IMEMO RAS) "Business environment in the ASEAN countries - a factor of institutional maturity" is devoted to the creation of a favorable business environment by the Association countries. They were among the first in the developing world to learn the lessons of interdependence and the use of comparative advantage in the interregional division of labor. Favorable market conditions and huge capital inflows ensured rapid economic growth, despite all the vices of the business environment. However, the crisis of 1997-1998 revealed the institutional immaturity and under-reformation of economic mechanisms. Previously, the most reliable guarantees of compliance with the interests of foreign corporations were their close ties and personal contacts with top management, who received "pay-offs".

The most difficult problems have arisen in Indonesia, where the most urgent task remains to maintain law and order and regulate relations between the center and the provinces. The fall of the Suharto regime has brought TNCs face-to-face with a legislative system and institutional environment that provides neither judicial protection of the legitimate interests of owners, shareholders, creditors, and investors who are not part of government-sponsored financial and industrial conglomerates; nor open access to participate in privatization transactions; nor effective bankruptcy and property disposal procedures debtors; or fulfilling the terms of contracts. E. S. Grebenshchikov noted that for most Southeast Asian countries, especially the least developed ones, the concepts of business transparency and regular and complete reporting, especially in accordance with international standards, remain alien (in this regard, the Russian reality does not look so bad). But they have already accumulated a significant amount of foreign capital, and even a partial outflow of it will not undermine the economic recovery and growth, although not as soon as before.

In conclusion, E. S. Grebenshchikov noted that rapid diagnostics of economic development imbalances in the ASEAN countries leads to the conclusion that the influence that the West has had on them is superficial. So far, they have not been able to break away from the not very good traditions of Eastern society and the state. In the course of the ongoing and upcoming economic and social restructuring, the ASEAN countries will have to rely on the United States and the West, and not on autarky and populist policies.

A. I. Dinkevich (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in his report "Economic growth and problems of social impact (on the example of Southeast Asia)" analyzed recently published studies on the dynamics of economic macro-indicators, an important feature of which was the increasing attention of scientists to the issues of social impact. The appeal of economists-scientists and practitioners - to social issues is caused by two factors: first, the increase in the cost of labor in the context of the information revolution and, secondly, the effect of feedbacks (mutual influence) between social returns and economic growth, and therefore their socio - political consequences. The study of these problems on the example of Southeast Asia revealed significant discrepancies in the mechanisms of interaction between the two countries.-

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There is no linear relationship between economic growth and social impact. The reasons for this are related to the levels of socio-economic development, the nature of power and the policies of national states, as well as the distributional and redistributive relations in them. The absence of a linear relationship between economic growth and its social impact results in structural gaps. Indeed, while in 1970-1997 the growth rate of GDP per capita in the Southeast Asian countries averaged 4.04%, the quintile coefficient (the ratio of 20% groups of recipients of higher and lower incomes) either increased (for example, in Thailand and the Philippines), or decreased slightly (in Indonesia). The ratio remained very high in the 1990s (1:8.8), including the highest in Malaysia (1: 11.7).

Under these conditions, of course, the poverty rate, even according to official data, on average in the region exceeded 35%. Despite the increase in budget expenditures for social purposes, the situation could not be corrected. In the most important areas-education and health systems-the share of allocations for them in GDP is much lower than the global average: by 1/3 and 1/2, respectively. All this indicates the need to strengthen the social orientation of the development strategies of the countries of the region.

In the report of G. S. Shabalina (IB RAS) "National cadres of Southeast Asia for the "new economy", it was noted that in the countries of Southeast Asia, there is a growing belief in the need to create a"knowledge-based economy". High technologies will contribute to economic growth, so the countries of the region should not stay away from this process. In the post-crisis period, many projects for the development of national education, science, and culture were developed in the Southeast Asian countries. So far, the real contribution of targeted state programs on informatization and training of national personnel is very modest. Top-level specialists and a skilled labor force in general are trained either abroad, or attract foreign teachers and scientists to national educational institutions and research centers. The US, UK, Australia, France and the Netherlands are still active. Recently, Japan has provided significant financial assistance and other support for the development of education systems and the use of new technologies in Southeast Asia, including in Indochina. Germany has joined this process, where 2 thousand Indonesians (mainly in the field of technical knowledge) and 1500 Vietnamese are currently studying and receiving scholarships at universities. Many German universities and higher education institutions organize summer schools, implement their study programs in universities of the Southeast Asian countries, or set up their own centers there. Such cooperation is carried out with Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand.

In her report "Foreign Direct Investment in Southeast Asian countries", S. A. Solovyova (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) drew attention to the fact that global flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2001 decreased to $ 800 billion. While the share of developing countries in the total volume increased slowly (from 1.1 trillion in 2000), it is projected that in 2005 the share of developing countries in the total volume increased slowly. it can make up 29% of the world's volume. FDI inflows to Southeast Asia in 2000 were below the pre-crisis level. The region's share of total investment inflows to developing Asia continued to decline, reaching only 10% this year, compared to more than 30% in the mid-1990s. According to S. A. Solovyova, the method of cross-country mergers and acquisitions is increasingly used as a tool for attracting FDI. So, in Southeast Asia, the use of this method after the crisis gave an impetus to the economic recovery of the countries of the region. Cross-border operations were concentrated in sectors focused on the domestic market. And their volume in the countries that experienced a particularly acute crisis - Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, and in East Asia - in South Korea - increased sharply in 2000: from $ 3 billion to $ 18 billion. Over the past 5 years, the share of cross-country mergers and acquisitions in FDI entering Southeast Asia has increased from 6% to 30%. Most of these operations are carried out in such areas as wholesale and retail trade, real estate operations and financial services. S. A. Solovyova notes a decrease in the volume of such revenues to the region, along with changes in the sectoral structure of investments. Currently, investments in the form of cross-country mergers and acquisitions predominate.

P. Muranova L. (Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in the report "Main trends in the development of foreign trade in Southeast Asian countries in the 1990s" considered the dynamics of foreign trade turnover, changes in the quality of goods and services.-

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the structure of exports and imports and the geographical focus of trade. In the first half of the 1990s, all countries in the region rapidly increased their foreign trade: the average annual growth rate of individual countries ' trade turnover ranged from 10% to 30%. High dynamics were interrupted in 1996 due to a reduction in demand from the largest partners of the Southeast Asian countries-the United States and Japan, which survived the recession. The 1997-1998 monetary and financial crisis worsened the situation, and by the end of the decade, the economic growth rate did not reach the same level (except for Cambodia and the Philippines, which were less affected by the crisis). In the 1990s, there were also significant changes in the commodity structure of exports. The share of exports of raw materials and fuel (excluding Brunei) decreased, while industrial products increased. In more economically developed countries, machinery, equipment and vehicles became the leading export item; the share of investment goods in imports increased, while consumer goods decreased. In less developed countries, on the contrary, the share of consumer goods increased. Changes in the geography of trade resulted in a decrease in the share of the main partners-the United States and Japan; at the same time, intraregional trade expanded, as well as trade with developing countries of the Asia-Pacific region.

A. I. Salitsky (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) has identified the significance of China's WTO accession for its relations with the ASEAN countries. The content of the agreements that the PRC has concluded with the WTO is a major step in modernizing China's foreign economic relations and gives grounds to talk about preserving its institutional foundations and a very high role of the state in this area. The private sector of China, in his opinion, is "too late to fit in with globalization": the main areas of cooperation and competition in the domestic and foreign markets determine the relationship between the largest state-owned corporations and foreign capital, and in a number of areas the role of the center is clearly increasing. The complex nature of China's economy, its high dynamics and relatively low dependence on foreign markets make it reasonable to predict that its relations with ASEAN will develop elements of integration, collective reliance on its own forces and markets. Statistics from 2000 to the first half of 2001 indicate a faster growth rate of mutual trade. Other areas of economic cooperation are also developing rapidly. Systematic economy of the People's Republic of China and the foreign economic power of the state, according to AI Salitsky, can continue to serve as a real foundation for its economic and political rapprochement with the ASEAN countries, the development of common approaches to the problems of the region and the modern world, and the growth of mutual interest and support.

V. Y. Arkhipov (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) gave a speech on the role of Australia in the economy of Southeast Asia. Noting that the 1990s and the beginning of the new decade are characterized by its high activity in SEEA, he attributes this to Australia's significantly strengthened position in the global economy, its geographical proximity to the countries of the region, as well as the successful economic development of the developing countries of SEEA during most of this period and the high demand for Australian goods, especially mineral and agricultural ones. In 2000, SEEA accounted for 55% of Australia's total exports (its commodity shipments to the region increased by 35%). In the context of the economic downturn in Southeast Asia, Australian exports have maintained a high level since the end of 2000 (for the 2000/01 fiscal year - from March 2000 to March 2001-they increased by 23%). In 2000/01, Japan traditionally ranked first in Australian exports, the United States second, and China and South Korea third and fourth, respectively. In the second five-year period of the 1990s, Australia's investment in SEEA countries more than doubled. With stronger ties to the Asian region, Australian investment increased, primarily in Japan ($22.8 billion). Australian dollars, including $ 353 million. direct - data for mid-2000), in Hong Kong (8.4 billion, including 4.2 billion - direct), Singapore (9.7 billion, including 1.9 billion - direct), Indonesia (2.6 billion dollars, including 670 million dollars-direct). Australia increases its contribution to the creation of intellectual capital (training students from Asia) both in the region itself and in Australia. Further strengthening of Australia's economic position in SEEA is not in doubt.

The third section, devoted to the problems of politics, economy, and foreign policy of individual Southeast Asian countries, was opened by a speech by A. Drugov (IB RAS), who analyzed the current political situation in Indonesia. The essence of the events of 2001 in this country is the continuation of the crisis of state power or even statehood in general. The fall of the repressive regime in May 1998 did not lead to the creation of an effective power structure based on the majority of the population or even the political elite. With the election of M. Sukarnoputri

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One problem has been solved, albeit formally : the president has a relatively stable majority in the parliament and Congress (more than 60% of parliamentary mandates). But in this bloc, the most radical and most conservative forces are somewhat unnaturally united. The discrediting of state power in all its forms, inherited by Sukarnoputri, has created a moral and political vacuum, which is being filled by political Islam. After the events of September 11, 2001, the latter received an additional " legitimation "in the eyes of the masses as a representative of the world power, which is considered, even with a minus sign, the only superpower. However, the Islamic color of conflicts in Sulawesi, Moluccas, Aceh and other regions should not hide their essence. This is a response, often inadequate, to the excesses of development and modernization. Emerging problems addressed within State institutions take the form of ethnic and / or interfaith conflicts. The army is taking a wait-and-see attitude. The task of the near future facing Indonesia is to ensure political stability and, on its basis, get out of the economic crisis (the solution to this task largely depends on the success or failure of the government of M. Sukarnoputri).

The report of R. E. Sevortian (ITAR-TASS) "The role of statehood in the consciousness of the Indonesian political elite" is based on a political science approach to the problem of the state. The author believes that Southeast Asia is one of the regions where the development of the state community manifests itself on a large scale and unpredictably. This is especially true for Indonesia, as the situation in the entire region depends on maintaining its integrity. According to R. E. Sevortian, in the minds of the political elite of Indonesia (civil and military), there is still an insurmountable dilemma: either an attempt to build a new Asian democracy (fraught with the collapse of the country), or to stabilize the state by turning to its authoritarian forms (albeit veiled). The government of M. Sukarnoputri demonstrates the statist approach that was formed in Indonesia during the period of independent existence, turning into a stable stereotype of the nation's thinking. According to the author, it will determine the state line of any leader in power.

In the speech of A. D. Popov (IB RAS) " Islamization of Indonesia?" The problem of radicalization of syncretic Indonesian Islam was considered. According to the author, as a result of the collapse of the Suharto regime, all separatist movements and ethnic and religious conflicts in Indonesia have received an Islamic coloring. They put forward fundamentalist and Islamist slogans for the "purification" of Islam and the creation of Sharia Islamic states (the most serious example is Aceh, where Sharia norms are officially introduced). The radicalization of Indonesian Islam was facilitated by the American bombing of Afghanistan, which caused a sharp rise in anti-American sentiment among the population and in the political elite. At the same time, the Indonesian Government is firmly opposed to terrorism. Further radicalization of the Muslim movement will contribute to the development of destabilizing processes in the country. However, eliminating the threat of Islamism is not yet realistic.

The topic of the presentation by E. P. Zakaznikova (IB RAS) is "Separatist movement in the Indonesian province of Irian Jaya". The main reasons for anti - government protests are socio-economic. Despite the fact that the province has huge natural resources, its population is on an extremely low standard of living, education and health. Revenue is absorbed by the center. Irians, who differ ethnically and religiously from Indonesians, also fear the disappearance of their original culture in the face of a massive influx of migrants from other parts of the country. Until the early 1980s, the separatist movement was widespread; by the mid-1990s, the main forms of protest were terrorist actions and hostage-taking. Then, in an attempt to dampen the intensity of the confrontation, the Government granted some of the separatist demands in 2000, and the opportunity to move on to peace talks opened up. However, this was opposed by the army, the top of which advocated tough measures against separatism, as well as the radical wing of the anti-government movement, which expressed disagreement with the positions of its leadership. Only at the beginning of 2002. The central government, in an effort to resolve the problem, granted the province the status of extended autonomy and renamed it Papua. But the final solution to the problem is still far away.

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N. A. Tolmachev (head of the group of the Orthodox Encyclopedia Church Research Center) made a presentation "Decolonization of East Timor: some aspects and problems". In his opinion, the background of the East Timor problem is a direct consequence of the era of Dutch colonial rule. East Timor has been developing for four centuries in isolation even from the closely related peoples of the western part of the island and was on the way to forming a new ethnic community with its own national identity.

The Indonesian authorities were forced to hold a referendum on self-determination of the territory of East Timor in 1999, realizing their inability to eliminate the ongoing struggle of the Timorese for independence, and also, as N. A. Tolmachev believes, losing the support of the United States in annexing this territory. Speaking about the prospects for the independent existence of East Timor as an independent state, N. A. Tolmachev notes the doubts of a number of experts in the viability of the new state and, accordingly, the existence of serious problems for stability in the region.

V. F. Urlyapov (IB RAS) analyzed the foreign policy program of the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS), the leading opposition party. According to the PACE leaders, the main challenge to the world Muslim community comes from the aggressive course of the United States, which seeks to "impose" the policy of "secular liberalism". PACE condemned the US military action in Afghanistan, considering it a cover for creating a regime in Kabul capable of protecting the interests of US TNCs. PACE advocates declaring Israel a " worldwide Islamic jihad." As one of the possible ways to resolve ethnic and religious conflicts in Indonesia (Ace) and in the Southern Philippines, she suggests using the East Timor settlement option (a referendum under the auspices of the UN on self-determination). PACE tried to create an "international of Islamic parties" that shared the idea of creating a similar Malay-Muslim confederation in Southeast Asia, but met with strong opposition from the government, which made it extremely difficult to implement the party's foreign policy goals.

E. V. Ivankina (IB RAS) gave a speech on the national question in modern Malaysia and its impact on politics. She noted that against the background of Malaysia's rapid economic development, the division of society along ethnic lines is supported by the desire of each of the ethnic groups to preserve their national identity and resist the processes of assimilation. The problem of communalism remains the main obstacle to the integration of the three national communities. The basis of this problem is the difference in the levels of socio-economic development of the main ethnic groups, the dominance of non-Chinese people in the most profitable areas of the economy, and the priority position of indigenous nationalities in the political sphere established by legislation. As for religious affiliation, in Malaysia it actually corresponds to the national sign. Thus, Islam has become the most important integration tool for Malays, but at the same time it largely hinders the processes of national consolidation of society, increasing the isolation of the Malay community from other ethnic groups in the country.

Yu. O. Levtonova (IB RAS) considered three main aspects of the problem of Muslim extremism in the Philippines (where syncretic Islam generally prevails). The first aspect is related to the assessment of the historical origins and features of the inter-religious conflict in the Philippines. Its nature lies in the traditional discrimination against the Muslim minority (the Philippines is the only Christian country in Southeast Asia, where more than 80% of the population professes Catholicism), which today is reinforced by the contradictions of modernization and the general economic downturn in the country caused by the Asian crisis. Currently, under the influence of international factors, the Muslim movement is being radicalized: the spread of ideas of political Islam, Islamic fundamentalism, the transition of autonomists to separatist positions, and the activity of the ultra-radical Abu Sayyaf group. The second aspect. The events of September 2001 gave the Philippine political elite a serious chance to improve and strengthen the partnership with the United States, which was weakened in the early 1990s. Traditional pro-Americanism persists in society - up to 80% of Filipinos support the pro-American policy of the Arroyo government. This does not prevent the growth of anti-American, anti-Western, and anti-globalist sentiments among certain categories of the population. But in the event of a power crisis, any new leader will continue to pursue a course of close cooperation with the United States, primarily in the field of defense and security. The third aspect. The Americans sent military units to a friendly and loyal country - this is not the case here.-

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The term "retaliatory action"is acceptable. According to Yu. O. Levtonova, the ideas often expressed in the press about the intention of the Americans to turn the Philippines back into a large base enclave are erroneous. We can only talk about clearly limited tasks of helping Filipinos in the fight against local Muslim terrorism. At the same time, of course, the deployment of American units in the Philippines, a kind of test of the reaction of neighboring countries, and, in addition, a hidden challenge to China are symptoms of the future struggle between the United States and China for hegemony in the Southeast Asian Region.

E. M. Gurevich's report "Singapore in the era of globalization" shows the inconsistency of globalization processes. On the one hand, Singapore has firmly integrated itself into the system of world economic relations, established itself on the world market and has taken an independent position in international political relations. On the other hand, Singapore's economy has become extremely vulnerable and dependent on global financial and economic shocks. The slowdown in economic growth in the United States and the complexity of the domestic political situation in a number of neighboring countries could not but affect the state of Singapore's economic complex. The city-state, which for several decades remained by all standards a phenomenal example of economic achievement, was caught in the grip of an economic downturn - the worst in the last 37 years.

M. G. Osipova (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences), reviewing the economic development of Singapore in 2001, noted that the decline in economic growth was a consequence of the deterioration of the economic environment in the countries that are its trading partners, primarily in the United States and Japan. The process of globalization for a small state is fraught with a serious danger of negative impact on its economic development. In the long run, it is difficult for Singapore to compete with larger countries that have significant reserves of natural resources, so its development strategy is aimed at creating a knowledge-based economy. The Singapore Government is promoting accelerated liberalization in the financial, economic and telecommunications sectors. A balanced government policy in the financial sector leads to the fact that Singapore at the beginning of the XXI century will serve as one of the leading financial centers in the world. However, the revolution in information and other cutting-edge technologies poses many serious challenges to the country in the field of education, business, and traditional values.

E. A. Fomicheva (IV RAS) analyzed the results of the development of the political system of Thailand in the XX century. from the absolute monarchy to the bourgeois revolution of 1932 and the formation of the parliamentary system through the struggle of authoritarian and parliamentary tendencies. Assessing the degree of democratic development, the quality of democracy, and its stability, E. A. Fomicheva concludes that the type of political system and the degree of its democratization generally corresponded to certain stages of economic development. In addition, the country's political system is characterized by a combination of features of the Thai political culture, traditions of public life, as well as political institutions and principles borrowed from the West. In general, a peculiar political system has developed, the important elements of which are the institution of the monarchy, political parties, an elected bicameral parliament, a government formed by the results of elections, the adoption of a new constitution, the implementation of constitutional reform, etc.

P. E. Shustroye (ISAA at Moscow State University) described the current economic situation in Thailand. In recent years, the negative consequences of the 1997-1998 crisis have mostly been overcome. The Government of Thaksin Chinnovat is taking measures aimed at ensuring balanced economic growth, improving the financial sector and prioritizing the development of agro-industrial sectors. Small and medium-sized businesses are encouraged to develop in both urban and rural areas of the country. The state strives to choose the optimal development strategy, taking into account internal and external factors, in order to maximize the use of national natural resources and human resources. P. E. Shustrov's conclusions were supplemented by the analysis of actual data on the economic development of Thailand in 2001 by E. M. Astafieva (IB RAS). Thailand's economic development slowed slightly compared to the previous year, mainly due to the downturn in the global economy. However, exports and imports grew by 7.0 and 2.8%, respectively (the trade balance remained positive at $ 2.5 billion). US$). In general, according to E. M. Astafieva, the economic situation in 2001 became more favorable for economic recovery;

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the national currency fluctuates in the range of 43.64-45.62 baht per 1 dollar. US $ (average 44.5%). The high liquidity of assets allowed to reduce domestic interest rates and improve credit conditions. But until now, overdue loans (10% of the total amount) are a huge problem that hinders normal economic development. In 2001, the Thai Asset Management Corporation (TAMS) was established, which bought up overdue loans from all state-owned banks for 33% of their face value, and TAMS also plans to buy back a significant part of overdue loans from private banks. The reorganisation and restructuring of debts allowed to increase the profit of commercial banks. E. M. Astafyeva notes that the real sector is experiencing problems due to insufficient lending. Industrial production grew by only 1.3% in 2001, while the capacity utilization rate averaged 54.1%. These and other problems in the real sector not only hinder its development, but also hinder the normal growth of the entire economy.

V. A. Dolnikova (ISAA at Moscow State University) noted in her report that despite the intensive process of urbanization and the growth of the urban economy, Thailand remains a predominantly agricultural country in socio - economic terms, where more than 42% of the labor force is employed in agriculture. By 2000, over 60% of the population lived in rural areas. At the same time, the number of rural people employed in industrial sectors, trade and services is gradually increasing (by the beginning of the XXI century, 47% were employed in them). Such changes in the social status of people indicate that the rural population of the country is beginning to play an increasingly important role in national political organizations and representative institutions of power.

V. F. Vasiliev's speech (IB RAS) is devoted to confidential negotiations (since October 2000) between the Government of Myanmar (Burma) and the democratic opposition (National League for Democracy - NDL) on achieving national reconciliation. According to V. F. Vasiliev, these negotiations are the largest political event in the country since the military junta seized power in 1988, because they contain the possibility of resolving the long-term social crisis and overcoming the national split. The author notes that now everyone is in favor of reconciliation - the opposition, international forces, including the UN, ASEAN, the United States, Japan, the EU, and, finally, the junta itself, tired of accusations of illegitimacy and of international sanctions and isolation that have worsened the country's economic situation and other problems. However, according to V. F. Vasiliev, it is still too early to indulge in complacency (the junta has repeatedly declared its commitment to democracy during its 14 years in power, while remaining a totalitarian military dictatorship).

In the report of A. A. Simony (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences), it was noted that in the period 1988-1993, the military leadership of the Union of Myanmar pursued a course of partial economic liberalization. However, the economic growth that began in the early 1990s began to slow down due to a number of internal reasons. Economic sanctions imposed by the US and EU countries also affected the country's economic situation. All this led to a certain decline in GDP growth rates from 7.7% in the mid-1990s to 5.7% by the beginning of the 21st century. Myanmar's GDP per capita remains the lowest in Southeast Asia. At the end of the XX century. It was $ 1,027, lower than in Laos and Cambodia. The changes that took place in the Government of Myanmar in 1997 and then in 2001, according to A. A. Simoniya, indicate difficulties and contradictions in the implementation of the government's policy of implementing real reforms in the country's economy.

Based on the analysis of the Vietnamese press in 2001, G. F. Murashova (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) reviewed Vietnam's foreign policy activities in the context of the globalization of international life, in particular, the development of Vietnam's relations with the United States and China, and Vietnam's preparations for WTO accession. In economic terms, Vietnam sees China and the United States as the preferred markets for selling its goods, and in geopolitical terms, it seeks to use the contradictions of both powers to its advantage.

G. V. Birina (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) described the main aspects of reforming the Vietnamese economy. The deterioration of the global economic situation in 2001 could not but affect the pace of economic growth in Vietnam. The development of the country's economy is largely dependent on export revenues, and the decline in world prices for oil and agricultural products has led to a sharp drop in the growth rate of export revenues from these groups of goods: from 25% in 2000 to 7% in 2001. Measures taken by the Government of Vietnam in 2000-2001, to some extent

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degrees have mitigated the negative impact of the recession on the global economy. The implementation of the Enterprise Law in 2001 (aimed at further developing private ownership in all sectors of the economy), the active credit policy pursued by the State Bank of Vietnam, the revised foreign investment law, the removal of restrictions on interest rates on foreign loans, the bilateral US-Vietnam trade agreement, and the adoption of a long-term reform program helped to revive the business environment. activities in the country. The Vietnamese economy is projected to grow at a slower pace than expected in 2002. Nevertheless, Vietnam may take the second place (among the ASEAN member countries and China) in terms of economic development (the first is reserved for the PRC).

A. A. Sokolov (IB RAS) reviewed the demographic and socio-economic situation in Vietnam: population growth, labor resources, employment, internal migration, labor force exports abroad, etc. He paid special attention to the Vietnamese emigration and its participation in the modern economic life of Vietnam. Currently, approximately 2.5 million Vietnamese live in more than 90 countries around the world. According to the Vietnamese Committee for Compatriots Abroad, in 2001, about $ 2 billion was received from Vietnamese living in different countries of the world. (11% more than in 2000), which accounted for about 2/3 of all foreign direct investment in the country. Vietnamese expats participate in more than 600 different investment projects in Vietnam with a total value of $ 300 million.

G. M. Maslov (IB RAS) focused on the results of the official visit of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin. Putin's visit to Vietnam (March 2001), in particular at the signing of the declaration on strategic partnership, which referred to strengthening defense cooperation that would not be directed against "third countries". A number of agreements were also signed and agreements were reached in the fields of economy, science, culture, and education. Their development, refinement and coordination continued until the visit of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov to Vietnam in March 2002. The course of development of Russian-Vietnamese relations, as noted by G. M. Maslov, is associated with the tense and rather complex political situation in Vietnam and in the Southeast Asian region.

S. I. Ioanesyan 's speech (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) focused on the socio-economic and political situation in the Lao PDR in 2001. It remained quite difficult due to natural disasters and the need to quickly overcome the negative impact on the economy of the last crisis, insufficient provision of the country with material and human resources. Laos still needs an influx of foreign loans, investments and grants, which has declined markedly in recent years. At the same time, a number of international organizations, such as the IMF, the ADB, the World Bank and the Mekong Committee, continued to subsidize the Lao economy. In 2001. GDP grew by 5-5. 5%, the dollar exchange rate fluctuated between 8-9 thousand bales. Revenues from foreign tourism declined. The balance of state budget items and foreign trade is chronically dependent on foreign revenues, a significant part of which, according to the Government, should be made up of growing monetary and material resources sent by "overseas" Lao to their relatives in Laos. A significant political event was the seventh Congress of the Lao People's Revolutionary Party (March 2001), the leading and only party in the Lao PDR, whose decisions determine all state policy in the republic in the short and long term. The Congress formulated the main socio-economic goals, approved the tasks of the indicative development plan for 2001-2005, and again turned to the idea of industrialization of the economy, which was rejected a decade and a half ago. At the same time, the priority is given to the development of agriculture and forestry, followed by industry, infrastructure and the social sphere.

The timeliness and scientific significance of the conference are demonstrated by the topics of reports and speeches devoted to the most acute and controversial problems of regional development in a rapidly changing modern world-in the context of economic and political globalization.

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