On April 13, 2011, the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences hosted a round table on "Social and economic processes in the context of globalization", organized by the Center for Research on General Problems of the Modern East (CIOPSV). Friends and colleagues dedicated this event to the memory of the recently tragically deceased Alexander Mikhailovich Petrov (1946-2010), a talented orientalist, specialist in the economic history of the Eastern countries, a brilliant scientific organizer, compiler and editor of fundamental collections on the development of the Eastern countries1, organizer of the scientific conference "Genome of the East: experiments and Interdisciplinary opportunities" (Moscow, April 12-14, 2004), which became a real event in scientific life. A. M. Petrov's monograph "International Economic Communication in the History of the East"was published posthumously². The latest collection "What is Catching up with Catching Up Development: the Search for a Concept" ³ was published almost a year after his death, in May 2011.

The round table meeting was attended by employees of the Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, primarily CIOPSV, where A. M. Petrov started his research in the Department of General Problems, and the Department of Economic Research, where he worked until the end of his days. Employees of IMEMO RAS, the All-Union State Library of Foreign Literature, the Institute of Africa of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and the State Open University made presentations.

S. A. Panarin, Head of the Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences, made a brief introductory speech. The discussion was moderated by N. N. Tsvetkova (IB RAS).

The first speaker was E. B. Rashkovsky (IMEMO RAS, VGBIL), "A. M. Petrov as a historian-thinker". E. B. Rashkovsky highly appreciated the contribution of A. M. Petrov to Oriental studies. He emphasized such qualities of A. M. Petrov as colossal general cultural erudition, the ability to hear and read the author, which allowed him to be a brilliant scientific editor and publisher, organizer of author collectives. An important feature of A. M. Petrov was his high creative dedication. E. B. Rashkovsky noted with regret that many of A. M. Petrov's scientific plans remained unfulfilled.

V. M. Nemchinov (Institute of Physics and Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences) made a memoir about A. M. Petrov as a person and scientist. He said that A. M. Petrov himself was a "man-institute", emphasizing his ability to organize large groups of authors of his collections within a single concept. A. M. Petrov deviated from trivial approaches in his work, always tried to release something unusual, say a new word in science, and he succeeded.

V. M. Nemchinov also focused on the peculiarities of global processes in the global economy and compared trends in the activities of TNCs in Russia and China. In his opinion, Western experts conclude that Orthodox civilization is more focused on the Western model of consumption than Eastern civilizations. The sales market in Russia for many Western TNCs is no less capacious than China, despite the difference in the population of the two countries. V. M. Nemchinov stressed that the model of globalism in its various elements in different parts of the world has now demonstrated its fragility and finiteness. V. M. Nemchinov also spoke about the increasing role of Eastern countries in the world economy, about India's breakthrough in the field of information technology, which was greatly facilitated by the attention paid to this area, including technical education, by Indian President Rajiv Gandhi.

¹ Recent collections include: Economics of Developing Countries. Collection of articles in memory of V. A. Yashkin, Moscow: IV RAS, ISAA at Lomonosov Moscow State University, Ed. Gumanitarii, 2004; to Valery Shirokov: I would like to talk to you, Moscow: IV RAS, ed. Academy of Humanities Research, 2006; The East as a subject of Economic Research. Essays, articles, Developments, Moscow: IV RAS, ISAA at Lomonosov Moscow State University, 2008.

² Petrov A.M. International economic communication in the history of the East. IV RAS. Lomonosov Moscow State University. ISAA, Moscow: Klyuch-S Publishing House, 2010, 208 p.

³ What is catching up with catch-up development: the search for a concept. Editor-in-chief, editor and compiler A. M. Petrov, Moscow: IV RAS, 2011, 424 p.

A.V. Akimov, Head of the Department of Economic Research of the Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, emphasized the importance of A. M. Petrov's activities as a scientific organizer and editor, a specialist in the economic history of Eastern countries. A.V. Akimov made a report " Forecast of changes in the population of world civilizations in the XXI century." He gave a forecast of the population size, its needs for fuel and energy resources (FER), and the availability of agricultural land and fresh water until 2100.4. Based on calculations, A.V. Akimov presented separate data on the dynamics of these parameters in the main civilizations: European (Western), Orthodox, Chinese, Indian, Japanese, Islamic, African and Latin American. According to population dynamics, civilizations are divided into four groups. The first group is the Orthodox and Japanese civilizations, which have a much smaller population than all other civilizations, and it is decreasing. The second group is the European and Latin American civilizations, whose population is significantly higher than the Orthodox and Japanese, but not as large as the number of other civilizations. The third group includes the Chinese civilization, which is predicted to rapidly stop population growth and transition to natural population decline while maintaining a high population level. The fourth group is the Indian, Islamic, and African civilizations, which have significant demographic growth potential. Different population growth rates of civilizations that are located in close geographical proximity will lead to an increase in international migration between countries belonging to different civilizations, creating a conflict potential. Thus, the combined population of Arab countries and Turkey will exceed the population of all European countries by the mid-2030s.

According to A.V. Akimov's calculations, the ratio of civilizations in terms of fuel and energy consumption will undergo major changes in the XXI century. If now the European civilization is more than three times ahead of each of all other civilizations, then over the course of a century the situation will change radically. The needs of the Chinese and Indian civilizations will grow to the level of the European, and the Islamic and African civilizations will exceed this level and continue to grow as the population increases.

According to the combination of per capita availability of arable land and fresh water, which are the main resources for agriculture, the following groups of civilizations are distinguished. The Chinese, Japanese, Indian, and Islamic civilizations are constantly experiencing a shortage of agricultural land and fresh water throughout the twenty-first century, while the African one still has significant arable land resources, but they will quickly run out with population growth. In addition, the African civilization is experiencing a shortage of fresh water. Throughout the twenty-first century, European, Orthodox and Latin American civilizations will have a high level of land and water resources, and they will have export potential to solve the food problem.

The results of A.V. Akimov's assessment of the population - resources ratio are as follows: in the coming decades, the world's population needs for natural resources will sharply increase to ensure catch-up development.

Yu. G. Alexandrov (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) made a presentation on " People in the transition economy (on the examples of Kazakhstan and Russia)". He noted that the leading criterion for modernizing society is the place of a person in it, the quality of life. The economy of Kazakhstan in the Soviet period was based on uncompetitive industrial technologies combined with the total mobilization of cheap labor of low and marginal productivity. The 1990s were marked by a near-catastrophic collapse of the republic's economy and its disorderly spontaneous restructuring. In the 2000s, part of its divisions began uneven recovery growth, against which the rapid development of the oil industry stood out. By the end of the decade, the foundations of its new organization as an economic leader were laid: more than 20% of GDP.

The challenge of modernizing states like Kazakhstan is partly how to put oil at the service of the nation's interests, rather than its cosmopolitan elites or local despotisms. It is necessary to create new effective sources of public income. In the case of Kazakhstan (as well as other countries with a diversified economy, such as Russia), this is an increase in labor productivity. The main thing is to introduce differentiation catalysts into the economy

⁴ For calculation methods, see: Akimov A.V. "2300: global problems and Russia", Moscow, 2008.

through competition and encouraging the population to volunteer hard work, increasing their income and increasing economic and social mobility.

From this point of view, the following changes have taken place in Kazakhstan. In the main sectors of the economy, State ownership has been almost completely replaced by private ownership. Only in the oil and gas sector does the state seek to consolidate its positions through the national company KazMunayGas. The nature of workers ' rights to their own labor force has changed. Forced employment (the universal obligation to work) has been replaced by the economic employment of hired and independent workers. Thus, formal prerequisites have been created for the transformation of labor from the former object of state exploitation into a subject of the economy.

GDP exceeded the initial level by 40%. At the same time, employment in all industries, except oil, declined significantly. The share of agriculture in GDP decreased from 30% to 5%, while employment, on the contrary, increased from 25% to 30%. The tertiary sector, while showing a dynamic increase in employment, has become mainly a zone of low incomes and marginal labor productivity.

Yu. G. Alexandrov concluded that the transition economy of Kazakhstan is still closer to the model of a dual commodity economy than to the type of an integrated system. In the area of remuneration of the labor force, the former equalization has been replaced by differentiation, which is typical of economic systems in transition from socialism to capitalism, in which sectors of the economy or individual industries that are better able to respond to the corresponding efficiency criteria are emerging ahead. The "residual" principle has been preserved in relation to such legacies of socialism as free health care and education, public utilities and social services. The salary scale there is strongly biased towards the subsistence minimum. In contrast to the budget sectors, the current leaders of the new economy are the export divisions of the extractive industry, led by oil production and real estate operations.

S. A. Panarin spoke about the peculiarities of Kazakhstan's economic development, the multiplier effect, due to which the growth of oil export revenues contributes to the growth of a number of other sectors of the economy of Kazakhstan.

R. G. Landa (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) drew the attention of the participants of the round table to the events of spring 2011 in the Arab countries. He believes that the peculiar socio-political upsurge in North Africa and in a number of countries in the Middle East cannot be considered either the work of Islamists or revolutions in the true sense of the word. There is no question of changing the social or even political system in any of the Arab countries affected by the unrest. It is a stretch to call the personal changes in leadership that took place there "half-revolutions", rather even "half-revolutions".

All these events had a pronounced political character, were held under secular slogans, and aimed not so much at social as at personal changes. If the Islamists participated in them, it was not as leaders or initiators, but only as fellow travelers, most likely trying not to "show up" too much, so as not to give a reason for repression (in Libya and Syria, they eventually came out, but this is a special conversation).

R. G. Landa noted that globalization is gaining only some positions from Islamism in the East in the sphere of economy and the latest technologies (including military ones), but meets fierce resistance in the sphere of politics, ideology and spiritual life. Perceiving it as a continuation of the millennial expansion of the West, which encroaches on their identity and religion, Muslims mostly support Islamists as defenders of their faith, way of life, customs, customs and worldview. This is due to the tradition of confrontation between Islam and Christianity in the era of Arab conquests, Crusades, corsairism and colonialism. Moreover, globalization is now the main cause of economic and social difficulties in the eyes of Muslims, especially the impoverishment of the vast masses of urban and rural marginals. And they are the main social base of political Islam from Senegal to the Philippines.

R. G. Landa emphasized that globalization in the usual sense of "Westernization" in the East is facing a more hidden, but no less real "globalization of Islamism" or political Islam. There is indeed a war going on between them. On the side of the former - economic and financial power, military superiority (so far), etc. But on the side of the latter-a skilful build-up of the same advantages and, moreover, an increasingly effective use of the objective weaknesses of the West, which can attract mainly well-fed and rich people.

prosperous people of the East. But there are many more disadvantaged people who need social justice and are ready to fight for it.

According to R. G. Landa, the difficult experience of the Arab world at the end of 2010 - the first half of 2011 proves that in our time, the latest information technologies, social networks and means of communication, which have repeatedly multiplied their impact on the consciousness of people, their opinions, ideas and way of thinking, have literally increased tenfold the possibilities of direct influence of more developed states on-the political situation in less developed countries. Thanks to this, the world's leading powers can create an appropriate environment in countries that are inferior in terms of scientific, technological, economic and cultural development without firing a single shot, and then impose policies that are pleasing to these powers. This is a new factor that is largely changing the nature of international relations and calling into question not only the UN Charter, but also the fundamental principles of the post-1945 world order.

The problem of Arab revolutions, the role of the army, especially on the example of Syria, was discussed in the speech of V. M. Akhmedov (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences) "The role of the ethno-confessional factor in the political systems of the Arab countries of the Middle East in the conditions of the revolutionary upsurge".

A.V. Kiva (Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences) made a report "The role of the demonstration effect in the context of globalization". Speaking about the events in Arab countries in the spring of 2011, he stressed that the demonstration effect, which is reinforced by the media, played an important role in them. The Internet played a special role in spreading the demonstration effect.

N. N. Tsvetkova (Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences) presented her paper "Globalization in the 2000s: Economic and social aspects". The scale of globalization and the development of foreign expansion of TNCs, she noted, can be judged at least by the fact that the ratio of the book value of direct investment in the world to world GDP increased from 5% in 1982 to 29% in 2006, then in the context of the global economic crisis slightly decreased, but remained very high.

N. N. Tsvetkova described new features of the globalization process in the 2000s. From the mid-1980s to the beginning of the new century, the process of globalization developed smoothly, and the crises were mostly peripheral: they took place in Asia, Latin America, and Russia. In the 2000s, the process of globalization was clearly disrupted - the crisis of the stock market of computer companies in 2000-2001, and then the global economic and financial crisis of 2008-2009, the consequences of which are still noticeable today.

A new moment (or rather, a return to a somewhat forgotten old one) in the course of the global crisis is the increasing role of the state, huge state injections into the economy, primarily in the United States and Western Europe, and a temporary departure from economic liberalization.

One of the most important changes in the process of globalization in the 2000s was the increasing role of countries with emerging markets in the world economy, including the BRIC (or BRICS) countries and the countries of the East. Many experts even regard it as a distinctive feature of a new stage of globalization.

The role of the Eastern countries is increasing at the macroeconomic level. In 2010, China ranked second in the world in terms of GDP (calculated at current exchange rates). The Eastern countries have become the world's leading exporters of industrial products, including high-tech ones. From 1996 to 2008, the share of developing countries in global exports of ICT goods increased from 34.7% to 58.7%, including developing countries in Asia - from 32.0% to 54.7%, and China - from 2.7% to 22.6% ^.5

At the microeconomic level, TNCs and national welfare funds from Eastern countries play an increasingly important role in the international movement of capital. In 2008, developing countries accounted for 16% of global outward FDI, including 12% in ^the Orient6. In 2008, out of the top 100 global TNCs listed by UNCTAD, 7 were companies from developing countries, of which 6 were from Eastern countries. In 2010, among the 100 largest banks in the list of 2 thousand largest financial companies in the world, according to Forbes magazine, there were 39 banks from developing countries, including 11 Chinese (including 1 bank from Hong Kong), 5 Turkish, 5 South Korean, 3 banks each from Saudi Arabia and India.

Globalization is primarily the replication of a Western-style consumer society model. Pervasive media, the Internet, and the demonstration effect play an important role in this process. Almost all countries are included in globalization as consumers. But

⁵ Information Economy Report 2010. UNCTAD. N.Y.; Gen., 2010, p. 147 - 149.

⁶ Calculations by: World Investment Report, 2009, p. 247-250.

from the point of view of production, not all countries of the world are equally covered by globalization processes. In 2008, about 90% of the world's book value of FDI came from 40 countries. Accordingly, all other countries of the world account for only 10% of FDI. Among the top 40 countries where FDI is located, 9 countries of the East were included: China and separately its Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Singapore, India, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates ⁷.

Both developing and developed countries face negative social consequences of globalization. Globalization, which creates ample opportunities for thriving companies and rich people to export their income and hide them from taxation offshore, is seen as a threat to the "social state" - the developed system of social protection of the population in Western countries; capital flight leads to a decrease in the tax base and a decrease in budget revenues. The movement of labor-intensive, material-intensive industries, and now even "white-collar" jobs, respectively, leading to an increase in unemployment and freezing of wage growth, is considered by some authors as "social and environmental dumping". These processes affect entire industries and regions in developed countries.

T. L. Deitch (Institute of Africa of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in her report "BRICS and Africa in the context of globalization" spoke about the increasing role of developing countries in the world economy. She noted that BRIC is becoming a leading global player, and its membership is expanding. In December 2010, South Africa was invited to become a full member of the BRIC. BRIC countries ' cooperation with South Africa has been actively developed. In August 2010, South African President Jacob Zuma led a delegation of 400 businessmen and 11 government ministers to Beijing. The visit ended with the signing of a number of important agreements. And at a conference in Durban marking the 150th anniversary of the Indian community in South Africa, Jacob Zuma invited Indian companies to work in South Africa, calling this country "the gateway to the billion-dollar African market."

The BRIC countries produce 15% of the world's GDP; from 2000 to 2009, their share in world trade increased from 6% to 15%. Africa has become a vital market for the BRIC trading bloc, which has led to a significant increase in trade with the continent. By 2008, China had become the second-largest trading partner in Africa, India the sixth - largest, and Brazil the tenth-largest, and the BRIC's total trade with Africa had grown from $ 22 billion in 2000 to $ 166 billion in 2008. The share of India was 20%, Brazil-11%, while Russia - only 4%. The BRIC countries ' trade with Africa declined slightly in 2009 as a result of the global financial crisis, but the trade turnover increased again in 2010.

The BRIC, which invested more than $ 60 billion in Africa between 2003 and 2009, became one of its main investors, second only to Europe ($190 billion), the Middle East ($170 billion) and the United States ($120 billion). According to some sources, China invested $ 28 billion in Africa during this period. India - 25, Brazil -10, Russia - 9.3 billion dollars. The global economic crisis affected the BRIC countries ' FDI inflows to Africa, which declined slightly. However, investment continued to grow in 2010.

Beijing's oil strategy focuses on Africa. African oil accounts for 30% of all Chinese oil imports. China attracts more than just oil to Africa: it imports phosphates from Morocco, copper and cobalt from Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, platinum from South Africa, uranium from Niger, and iron ore from Liberia. At the same time, the principle of "raw materials in exchange for infrastructure"is widely practiced. One of the main reasons for China's success in Africa is its position, repeatedly voiced by the country's leaders: "China does not interfere in the internal affairs of other states." This position has led to the active development of China's relations with Sudan and Zimbabwe. China and the events in North Africa did not force it to retreat from the principle of "non-interference". Although Beijing's interests in Libya are significant (75 Chinese companies have invested here, 50 joint projects have been implemented, with a total value of $ 20 billion). The Chinese leadership reiterated that " China should not and will not interfere in the internal affairs of Arab countries."

Beijing's assets include the ability to combine public and private initiatives, comprehensive state assistance to companies, and the participation of banks in the implementation of programs.,

⁷ World Investment Report, 2009, p. 251 - 254, World Investment Report, 2008, p. 257 - 260.

It also focuses on certain sectors of the African economy, particularly infrastructure, which is a "weak point" in most African countries.

Africans claim that they have accepted Western aid and followed Western development models for many years, but they have not managed to end their backwardness, and the BRIC countries will be able to bring something new to the field of economic cooperation. They perceive these countries as donors who are ready and able to help them solve development problems. Growing economic aid, unencumbered by political conditions, a trade and investment boom, and the protection of Africa's interests in international organizations have made BRICS an attractive alternative for Africa to the West.

N. A. Dlin (IB RAS) made a presentation on "Globalization and qualitative transformations of the social structure in modern transition countries". The problems of innovative development and modernization in the countries of the East were also discussed. L. F. Pakhomova (IB RAS) made a report "Modernization of an innovative type in developing countries".

Among social problems, a special place was given to the problems of urbanization, global megacities and international labor migration.

З. A. Galich (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in her report "The era of globalization and a new category of cities - world/ global centers" noted that the XX century, and especially its second half and the beginning of the XXI century, is the time of formation of the global economy and its management centers-global cities. The phenomenon of a city of international significance - a "world city", a super-city, a super-city - is a special cross-cutting phenomenon of the historical process. Since the second half of the XX century, the world city (usually a megacity)is not a special single phenomenon, but a kind of natural and universal (even if there are historical, cultural and socio-economic differences) phenomenon of the urban process in the era of globalization and post-industrialization (postmodernism).

Since the second half of the 20th century, the concept of a world city has become a scientific paradigm of the emerging theory of world / global centers, and the term "global city" itself expresses the essence of a certain stage of historical development and the corresponding urban process. Cities of this type have served and continue to serve as "catalysts for change", the" main link " of development. Today, such cities are not separate individual centers of international significance, but an independent category. In the epistemological sense, global cities are a scientific paradigm that reflects the essence of not only urban studies, but also a new recently emerged branch of knowledge - globalistics. In the present, a new urban model is being formed with its own hierarchical system of cities, the leadership in which belongs to the world/global cities of both the West and partly Non-West/Of the East.

The question of general optimal indicators of properties and qualities of the global cities category remains extremely important. Although there are already a number of lists of world / global cities (their special "world hierarchy"), defined and ranked based on the score of the functions performed, the number of cities and lists is constantly growing.

It can be argued that as early as the 1980s, there was a need for awareness of new realities and new challenges, including the formation and development of new urban and socio - economic, more broadly, cultural and civilizational forms. Since then, such issues as "world centers in the world system", "globalization and world cities", "the role and place of the global city in the modern industrial world"have been actively studied.

In the context of globalization, international labor migration is increasing. The problems of immigrants and their perception by the local population were discussed at the round table. L. A. Birchanskaya devoted her speech to the problem of labor migrants from Central Asia to Moscow. According to the latest data from the Levada Center, in Moscow, compared to other large Russian cities, xenophobic and nationalistic sentiments are most pronounced. This is confirmed by last year's events on Manezhnaya Square.

The vast majority of guest workers work in Moscow illegally. So it is easier to go to the shadow sector than to get a permanent work and residence permit from corrupt officials. As a result, our state is deprived of tax revenues. In addition, according to experts, labor migration from Central Asian countries is becoming poorly managed. But attracting foreign labor is necessary. Various private services are in demand, such as transportation, construction of private houses, dachas, apartment repairs, street cleaning, road construction.

What kind of people go to work in Moscow? These are mostly men of working age. People with higher education work on construction sites, slaughterhouses, movers and handymen. Among guest workers, rural residents predominate, they have no education, hardly speak Russian and do not want to study it. At the head of the group, connected by ties of kinship or community, is the foreman. As a rule, he speaks decent Russian, solves issues with employers and the police. Many facts show that discrimination mechanisms operate within and between groups. Recently, not only men, but also women come to Moscow to earn money.

Studies have shown that migrants who come to the capital with the desire to stay and move their families here are ready to destroy some of their previous cultural attitudes and identity and will willingly consider themselves Muscovites. Meanwhile, the concept of "Muscovite" is latently firmly connected with the concept of "Russian", i.e., in Russia, not civil identities prevail, but ethnic ones. The hostile attitude of the population and the authorities towards the "newcomers" who are culturally alien to them dominates the understanding of reality: labor migrants are necessary for the development of the national economy in Russia.

Summing up the discussion, N. N. Tsvetkova returned to the question of A. M. Petrov's contribution to Oriental studies, recalling that in 2011 he would have turned 65 years old.

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