The theses proposed by V. I. Maksimenko for discussion do not raise any special objections. I believe that in principle none of the propositions put forward can be rejected. In my notes, I would like to draw attention to some aspects of the development of Central Asia that are poorly covered in the literature.

First of all, this concerns the natural and climatic processes that have led to serious changes in Central Asian society. We are talking about a very noticeable increase in the area of sandy deserts. The process of desertification is well illustrated by archaeological excavations in the southern outskirts of the Karakum mountains. The same process is also known in western Turkmenistan - a city in the sands of Shahrislam, absorbed by the sands in the Middle Ages. Here, to the west of Kurendag, the city complex of Dihistan ceased to exist.

V. I. Sarianidi's excavations especially clearly illustrate the attack of the desert on ancient civilizations ¹ . In the area between the Tejena and Murghab rivers (ancient Margina), they discovered a huge complex - a hillfort and burial ground - Gonur, identified with the legendary Margush. In this connection, it can be assumed that the "draining" of the lands to the south of the modern Karakums also caused the movement of the center of the Parthian power from Nyssa (Ashgabat) far to the west, to northern Iran. Last but not least, dehydration determined the decline of civilizations in the Kopetdag foothills. The great deserts expanded in other directions as well.

The process of dehydration of the Western Karakum was marked from the middle of the 2nd millennium AD. Most wells in this part of Central Asia by the middle of the XX century. we've already had salt water. An archaeological study of the Eastern Caspian region suggests that by the 17th century, the population of this part of the region, due to the lack of fresh water, left the territory of their ancestors and partially went to Khorezm, the Baltic steppes and the Akhal oasis. A similar process of desertification took place in the eastern part of Central Asia. Dozens of medieval cities that had lost their water supply sources were abandoned here. This is well shown in the works of Professor K. M. Baipakov ² .

Desertification of the region led to an increase in population density in oases located in the eastern and southern parts of the region. The Khwarezm oasis did not escape the reduction of irrigated areas. By the middle of the 19th century, irrigated areas were also noticeably reduced in Ferghana and in the Tashkent oasis. Citizenship rights were granted to the now little-used concept of "ancient irrigation lands".

In the remaining oases, the population was acutely aware of the lack of moisture that could be used for irrigation. The economic weakness of the local society allowed the Russian Empire to easily conquer Central Asia. There was no need to disperse forces over large areas. The conquest of this or that oasis automatically subordinated the steppe peoples to Russia, since the main sources of existence of the steppe peoples were in the hands of the military - grain markets.

Russia's relatively rapid advance into Central Asia was also due to the fact that only oases had to be conquered. The latter did not possess, like the steppe, mobile cavalry detachments that could to some extent resist regular troops. As for the "oasis" military units, their capabilities were clearly insufficient to provide any serious resistance to the Russian army.

Much more complex barriers that Russia has not been able to overcome - the Syr Darya and Amu Darya in the east and south of the country, and the Kopet Dag - and beyond which it has not been able to reach.

(c) 2003

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advanced. Russia's eastern borders in Central Asia have long remained "foggy". Russian society was more interested in the Caucasus. Even St. George's Crosses received in battles in the Caucasus were valued more among the military than the same awards received in Central Asia. Somewhat later, at the beginning of the XX century. Russia has nevertheless moved south in the "Caspian possessions". This was an episode that did not develop, and there was no conflict with Iran. Even Basmachestvo could not aggravate relations between the USSR and its southern neighbors-Iran and Afghanistan. Nevertheless, experts, most of them military, warned both ^the tsarist and Soviet governments of the inevitable difficulties that could eventually arise in relations with Afghanistan.

The Afghan tragedy still continues to remind of itself-from thousands of crippled Russians to the rejection of "Shuravi" ("Soviet") forces in Afghanistan. But this is only the "external" side of the problem. Afghanistan "closed" the acute situation in Central Asia with its events. Dealing with the problems of the foreign East, the government of the USSR, like the government of Russia, missed the development of negative processes in Central Asia. When assessing the situation, first of all, the above-mentioned process of "drying up" or reducing the area of productive agriculture and watered pastures was not taken into account. Society gradually degraded - the natural life-supporting resource decreased, and the number of" indigenous " people is constantly increasing. In the 130 years since Central Asia joined Russia, the region's population has grown sevenfold^. :

During the same time, the amount of moisture available to humans has been reduced at least twice. This was due to the salinization of wells, the dewatering of karizs and the reduction of the actual amount of moisture in small rivers and large streams. For example, in Western Turkmenistan (Zabalkhania) and on the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea in the 60s of the XX century, 8 out of every 10 wells were salty. Moving away from the lack of water, the population of the steppes settled on the borders of oases, on the least suitable lands for farming. These lands could be used only under the condition of integrated farming-a combination of agriculture with remote steppe cattle breeding. In the literature, this type of economy is often called "semi-nomadic". Its main characteristic is the lack of an idea of development. The "semi-professionalism" of agriculture and cattle breeding makes progress in both agriculture and cattle breeding impossible and leads to degradation (at best, stagnation) of society. Such "semi-societies" are extremely explosive and their behavior is unpredictable. In particular, Afghanistan has proven this repeatedly.

It is also important to take into account the fact that such a state of the economy of a society determines its entire social structure. There are no real large tribal divisions that are subordinate to a single leader. As a rule, the situation was determined by the heads of tribal structures that were actually related to each other. Just such formations -

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high-level Turkmen tribal units were the most socially capable. They were economically independent and their heads determined the policy of larger formations-tribes. It was the tribal structure that was decisive in the states of Central Asia at the time of its conquest by the Russian Empire.

Here we should pay attention to the fact that not a single document - neither public nor "private" - even hints at Russia's desire to take over British India. This desire is mostly thought out by researchers of the foreign policy of Russia and England.

Today, the situation on the southern borders of Russia has changed dramatically. In modern conditions, only an ignoramus or a person with a disturbed psyche can dream of a" full-scale " conquest of Central Asia. For Russia, the region has become a destabilizing territory only in" big " politics. At present, the Russian state simply does not have any political or serious economic levers of pressure on the political elites of Central Asian states. The question of Central Asia's" dependence " on Russia can only be discussed at the domestic level - fruit trading by natives of the region in the markets of Russian cities. As far as can be judged from publications in the Russian mass media and data from statistical compilations5, ^the economic relations of Central Asian states with foreign partners in monetary terms are very insignificant. Their ties to Russia are limited to the transportation of oil and gas and, to a very limited extent, the supply of fruit to bazaars in Russian cities. Russia's trade with Kazakhstan, which also has reserves of metal ores in addition to hydrocarbons, reaches a somewhat large size. On a much smaller scale, ore reserves are explored in other post-Soviet states of the region, and their extraction does not significantly affect the economic potential of these states.

The inter-State relations of the Central Asian republics are also very complex. The situation has reached the greatest tension on the borders of Uzbekistan with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and on the Tajik-Afghan border. In addition to the actual economic problems, the situation here is also complicated by the drug trade, which has reached a dangerous level in the last two republics. The impact of drug trafficking on the real socio-economic situation in these countries is well illustrated by the example of the northern provinces of Afghanistan and the southern regions of Central Asia. Drug traffickers through various channels have a huge influence on the power structures of various levels and do not want to change the situation in the border provinces. This is a state within states. No industry will provide even a tenth of the income that drug dealers have. They, together with corrupt officials, do not want and will not allow, in the foreseeable future, in any case, to change the situation "in either direction." The main reason for this is that only very rarely the drug trade is controlled not by tribal leaders, but simply by the rich. In any case, there is no real force in the districts that could resist the drug mafia. And she is the first one who is interested in maintaining this situation.

At present, it is hardly necessary to link directly the situation in Central Asia, Afghanistan, India and Iran. In the 150 years that have passed since Russia conquered Central Asia, the situation has changed radically. India is no longer dependent on the power of England and pursues a completely independent policy, and Russia cannot even cope with its internal problems. She is no longer the "beast" to be feared.

I believe that the reason for the interest in controlling Central Asia has also changed. At the same time, both the object and the subject of such interest have changed. Now it's oil and gas and the United States. The main question is who will actually own the nave-

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tenosnye areas of this part of Asia. The Americans, not Britain, have already established themselves quite firmly in the region, without asking permission from Russia, which no longer plays a leading role here. At the same time, the main problem that Central Asia will have to deal with in the very near future will be providing the population with food.

Unemployment and extremely low wages for working people make the prospects for the newly formed Central Asian states very bleak. Those who want to get its oil and gas need to think for themselves about the well-being and peace in the region. It is necessary to establish an alliance with Iran and Afghanistan. It is necessary to further create the "southern road", because the" northern road " is completely controlled by Russia, which is not interested in changing the current situation. As for the post-Soviet republics of the region, they are objectively not able to complicate the situation with Russia also due to the fact that a very large part of the population, as noted, feeds on trade with Russia and works on its territory. I am not sure that this situation will change significantly in the near future. Neither side, with all the desire, is able to do this. Russia simply does not have the strength to change the situation in Central Asia, and the latter, in addition to the lack of real opportunities, also lacks the desire to change anything in its policy towards Russia.

As for the US presence in Central Asia, this is another attempt to break through not so much to local oil (it is very difficult to export it from the region), but to get close to the Iran-Iraq oil-bearing region and try to "put pressure" on the Shiite part of the Islamic world, with which the United States has quite complex relations. For the United States and its ally Great Britain, the Central Asian states are now more of an "intermediate" airfield than a solid springboard. I believe that American politicians soberly assess the real state of the newly formed states and the situation in Afghanistan. America does not yet have any serious reasons to settle in Central Asia for a long time. The United States already feels quite comfortable in the region, almost without spending money. As for Russia's position on the situation in Central Asia, it is, as always, completely illogical. Russia treats it as enemy territory or as chains that have been imposed on it. It, Russia, has now completely abandoned its "worries"in this part of Asia, rightly believing that with the new owners of the region's production structures, it has nothing to do there. Moscow is no longer interested in Central Asia, as new owners have appeared there, oriented in a completely different direction. Unfortunately, this orientation in socio-economic terms is a continuation or development of the process discussed at the beginning of the story. The natural desiccation and dehydration of Central Asia, as part of the Islamic world, was continued not only in the degradation of agricultural production. The entire economy of the region has been destroyed. The country has become a fuel tank, a kerosene canister from which oil and gas are pumped.

What this policy leads to is eloquently demonstrated by the experience of oil - producing countries in various parts of the ecumene. Degradation of society and mass migration of population to industrialized countries. The population of the rich emirates, Saudi Arabia, Libya, and some other countries make up a small fraction of the world's Muslims. The vast majority of countries that are similar in nature to the present-day republics of Central Asia and live off income from the sale of hydrocarbons, have stopped in their socio-economic development. The "oil boom" did not create modern industry, nor did it change the medieval social structure of such societies.

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These processes will become more pronounced over time. They will be determined primarily by two factors. The first is unregulated population growth (already mentioned) and water scarcity. And if, being part of the USSR, Central Asia could count on using part of the flow of West Siberian rivers, then in the current situation, with a focus not on Russia and with its not at all good-neighborly relations with some states of the region, the question of water supply hangs in the air. Soon enough, one more problem will be added to the noted problems - personnel. The old technical intelligentsia is already serving its term, but the new one is no longer there. And if in Kazakhstan the personnel structure in the industry has not yet been completely destroyed, then the situation in four Central Asian states in this area does not inspire optimism.

The economic confusion and confusion that prevail in Central Asia today determine the policy of external donors. As the practice of the last 10 years has shown, it is very difficult to find "good uncles". The ruling elites are trying to achieve the impossible - to retain full power in their countries and at the same time get money for the maintenance of their states without any conditions. And this is what determines the importance of the Central Asian states in the system of world politics. Little depends on them, however, as well as on Russia.

Getting out of this situation requires special research. Detailed analysis requires additional materials. They need to be collected. And returning to the original story, I would like to note that in addition to a detailed analysis of the socio-economic conditions that have developed in the region so far, it is necessary to carefully study the natural processes that are taking place here today. This is a very special topic that requires the involvement of up-to-date, very diverse material. Unfortunately, if it exists, it is unavailable or absent altogether.

notes

^{Sarianidi V. I.} 1 Necropolis of Gonur and Iranian Paganism, Moscow, 2001.

^{Baipakov K. M.} 2 Medieval cities of Kazakhstan on the Great Silk Road. Almaty, 1998.

^{Snesarev A. E.} 3 Afghanistan. Moscow, 2002.

⁴ Material kindly provided by zav. Department of Central Asia of IE RAS V. I. Bushkov.

⁵ Commonwealth of Independent States. Statistical Yearbook-99. Moscow, 2000.

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