One of the conditions for the progressive development of the economy of any country is statistical accounting at all levels, but first of all - at the most highly aggregated, macroeconomic level, which allows for a systematic analysis of the processes occurring in the state economy. The study of these processes at the level of modern science is possible only in the presence of well-developed statistics of national accounts. Therefore, in Pakistan, as in many other developing countries, during the entire process of economic development, this type of statistics was first established and then further developed; but this process was particularly intense in the first three decades after independence; then there was a gradual and very slow development, to a certain extent and even improving (as much as possible in the context of Pakistan) such statistics.

Keywords: Pakistan, macro statistics, macroeconomics, production, distribution, use, consumption, accumulation.

The main role in organizing the statistical service in Pakistan at the macro level was played by the relevant UN services. In the 1950s, research in the field of national accounting went beyond the national framework and work began on the international standardization of national accounts. The result of this activity was the development of the UN System of National Accounts at that time, and since 1956, the UN Statistics Office has been sending out questionnaires to all countries that correspond to the international system of national accounts adopted by this international organization in 1953. At the same time, the first international yearbook "Yearbook of National Accounts Statistics" prepared by the UN Statistical Commission was published, which has since become a regular publication. In an effort to ensure that such a yearbook included the necessary data for as many countries as possible, the UN helped to establish macro-statistical accounting in those countries where it did not exist or where it was in its infancy.

It should be noted in passing that even in the most developed countries with market economies, macroeconomic statistics are still far from perfect. For example, it does not yet take into account the labor costs of driving car owners, the work of housewives and some other categories of unpaid work; there are other disadvantages. Therefore, it is not difficult to imagine how far from perfect similar calculations in the framework of national accounting statistics are in developing countries, where many industry calculations are inaccurate, where due to the existence of a significant subsistence sector in the agricultural sector and some other industries, the majority of the population is illiterate (in 1972, for example, the literacy rate in Pakistan was only 22% and 57% in 2010) [Pakistan Economic Survey

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1982-83, p. 177; Pakistan Economic Survey 2009-10, p.145] and a number of other reasons, existing calculations up to the beginning of the XXI century were incomplete. Nevertheless, there were gradually positive changes in the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of this accounting, which from year to year more fully and better summed up the labor activity of the Pakistani society.

The leading category of macroeconomic statistics and national accounting of all states, regardless of their level of development, is the final social product. It represents the sum of national income (i.e., the new value created in a given year in all branches of material and material production-the real sector of the economy - and the service sector) and depreciation, i.e., the part of the materialized past labor used in a given year. If the calculation does not include calculations on the foreign economic relations of a given country, then it gives the so-called gross domestic product (GDP); GDP adjusted for the balance of payments of this country with foreign countries is the gross national product (GNP).

There are three independent ways of calculating the final social product, formulated in the UN System of National Accounts; these methods correspond to the three stages of reproduction of the final social product-production, distribution and use. 1
At the production stage, the calculation of the final social product is carried out by summing up the gross value added created in all branches of material production and the service sector. Gross value added is calculated by subtracting the cost of raw materials, semi-finished products, auxiliary materials and energy consumed from the cost of products produced or services rendered. National income is calculated by adding up net value added, which does not include the transferred cost of fixed capital, or by subtracting the amount of depreciation from the final social product. This method is called the output method.

Since any newly created value is converted into income (capital)when distributed The calculation at the stage of distribution is carried out by summing up the income and profits of all segments of the population of the country. Since these revenues and profits do not include depreciation of fixed capital, the amount received is national income. The latter, as is known, is less than the final social product by a relatively small amount of depreciation. This method of calculation is called the distributed income method. Here we note that in Pakistan this method of calculation is practically not used, since it requires regular sample surveys of family expenses and income, on the basis of which the income of the entire population of the country is calculated and, ultimately, national income is calculated. At the same time, inequality in income distribution is calculated, which provides a basis for analyzing the social stratification of society and its (stratification) dynamics. As a rule, such a sample survey is conducted simultaneously with the census of the country's population.

At the use stage, the final social product is calculated by summing up private and public consumption with private and public investment. In order to avoid repeated accounting of the same values (i.e., the entire amount of the transferred value), at this stage of reproduction, not all material products are counted (except for services produced during the year).,

1 Formally, after the stage of distribution of the social product, the stage of its redistribution follows, when public finances come into effect, simply put - financial levers for the redistribution of income, primarily direct and indirect taxation systems.

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Table 1

Average annual growth rates of the main macroeconomic parameters, %

Years Structure

1950-1960

1960-1970

1970- 980

1980-1990

1990-2000

2000-2005

2005-2010

GNP

3.1

6.8

5.1

6.1

4.6

6.9

4.6

Agricultural industry

1.6

4.1

2.3

5.5

4,0

3.4

3.4

Manufacturing industry,

7.7

9.9

4.2

8.2

4.8

8.7

3.4

including:

a large one

15.4

13.3

3.1

8.2

3.6

12.0

3.3

small

2.3

2.9

7.3

9.4

4.7

2.2

7.9

Transport, communications

4.4

7.8

5.6

6.2

5.1

3.5

3.9

Service sector

3.4

6.5

6.0

6.1

4.3

6.9

5.1

Population

2.4

2.9

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.2

1.8

Per capita income

0.6

3.8

2.1

3.,0

1.7

4.7

2.8

Рассчитано по: Pakistan Economic Survey 1976 - 1977, 1977, p. 9 - 10; Pakistan Economic Survey 1984 - 1985, 1985, p. 17; Pakistan Statistical Yearbook 1984, 1984, p. 369, Pakistan Statistical Yearbook 1995, 1995, p. 461, Economic Survey 2001 - 2002, 2002, p. 9, Pakistan Economic Survey 2006 - 2007, 2007, p. 5; Pakistan Economic Survey 2009 - 2010, 2010, Table 1.1.

but only that part of it created during the year that is not subject to further processing and has left the process of social production, i.e. final products. This method of calculation is called the expense method or final product method.

The development of these three methods of calculation took more than a decade in developed countries. But when they emerged, they marked a new stage in the development of macroeconomic statistics. They made it possible to fill in the gaps of one or another calculation method, and became the foundation on which the national accounting system emerged.

Almost none of the Asian less developed countries and countries that are on the verge of moving from this category to the group of medium-developed countries, such as Pakistan, regularly calculate the final product using all three methods. In most of them, there is an industry method and calculation at the stage of use, almost everywhere there is a method of calculating at the stage of production, by adding up the value added created in all areas of the real sector of the economy and in the service sector.

In this way, the main macroeconomic parameters were calculated in absolute terms, on the basis of which the average annual growth rates of the main macroeconomic indicators of Pakistan were then calculated (Table 1).

But let's return directly to Pakistan and start with British India, where estimates of individual macroeconomic indicators existed in the XIX century, and already in the first half of the X century, many macroeconomic calculations were made in the country. Here we should highlight first of all the calculations of the national income of India, made by K. Shah and K. Khambata [Shah, 1924], as well as V. Pao [Rao, 1940]. In their works, Indian economists sought to show the unusually low level of national income per capita, the poverty of lower castes and social groups

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population, pumping out of the country's natural resources by the mother country, which were exported from India almost without equivalence 2.

The obvious need for the organization of macroeconomic statistical accounting in Pakistan arose immediately after independence. In 1950, after the adoption of the Colombo Plan in Pakistan, an attempt was made to draw up a six-year economic development plan for the country, but significant difficulties were found due to the almost complete lack of macroeconomic statistics in the country. In this connection, the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) was established in Karachi in September 1950, and the first issue of its monthly publication, the Statistical Bulletin, was published in early 1952.

The first calculation of the national income of Pakistan was made for 1948/49 and published in the Statistical Bulletin in 1952 [Statistical Bulletin, 1952]. However, due to the lack of many statistical data necessary for this calculation at that time, it was necessary to resort to a rather large number of rough estimates. During the first half of the 1950s, work was carried out to improve the recording and collection of indicators of industry statistics; this work culminated in the compilation and publication of data on national income and its sectoral structure for 1949/50 - 1952/53 (Statistical Bulletin, 1955).

The same materials, revised and supplemented with data for 1953/54, were published in the statistical yearbook for 1955. Finally, with the publication of the United Nations System of National Accounts in 1953 and the development of the first five - year plan for Pakistan's economic development for 1955-1960, the industry-by-industry calculation of national income was slightly improved and was carried out annually thereafter.

In the 1950s, national income was calculated only at the production stage, but even here, Pakistani statisticians experienced great difficulties. The latter were associated with the lack and poor quality of cross-industry statistics (especially in agricultural production, small-scale industry and some areas of the service sector), as well as insufficient qualifications of Pakistani specialists in statistical accounting [Middle Eastern..., 1965, p. 45-49]. Considerable difficulties also arose in the valuation of manufactured products, especially in the natural sector of agriculture and small-scale industry. Therefore, in the annual industry-by-industry systematic calculation of national income (ND) established since the mid-1950s, rough estimates could not be avoided in many cases, and the errors in the final result could reach, according to the Pakistani economists themselves, 20 - 30% [Middle Eastern..., 1965, p. 51].

As a result, a number of measures aimed at improving cross-sectoral macroeconomic calculations were implemented during that period. In 1959/60, a census of the manufacturing industry was conducted, during which the value added created in each of the 19 main branches of the qualification industry was calculated. In 1960, a household census was carried out, which helped to improve the calculation of value added in the household as well. In 1961, the second population census was conducted in the country, which made it possible to clarify the calculations of the average per capita size of the social product made in the 1950s.

If in the 1950s the main role in the development of macroeconomic statistics was played by employees of the so-called practical organizations (mainly the Central Bank and the Planning Commission), then in the next decade, the Institute for Economic Development of Pakistan, established at the end of the 20th century, played a major role in the development of macroeconomic statistics in Pakistan and the training of national staff of macrostatistics.

2 We do not address here the question of how harsh the exploitation of India by Great Britain was, or whether it was even harsh at all. In this regard, it is hardly possible to ignore the fact that the colonialists created in India (including in the territory of modern Pakistan) the most extensive network of irrigation channels in the world, which is still successfully used today.

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1950s. A number of important studies on these issues were carried out by the staff of this institute, and a number of important studies on these issues were published on the pages of its print organ "The Pakistan Development Review". National statisticians received considerable help in this work from foreign specialists (E. F. Szczepanek, A. Bergan, G. Renis, etc.).

The Central Statistical Bureau established a commission in 1961 whose main task was to improve the country's relatively primitive calculation of key macroeconomic indicators. The report submitted by the commission in July 1962 contained recommendations, in particular on the organization of the calculation of the final social product by province. The Commission emphasized the need to create macroeconomic statistics in the country that would meet the requirements of the UN System of National Accounts [Report..., 1962]. And it was the results of the work of this Commission that were fundamental to the creation of a relatively full-fledged System of National Accounts in Pakistan, and until the first decade of the twenty-first century, this system was not fundamentally changed in the country.

In accordance with these recommendations, the Commission on National Income was established in April 1963, which included six of the most prominent experts in the field of macro statistics. The Commission was given the task of developing recommendations for a radical improvement of the entire field of macroeconomic accounting, and creating industry statistics for this purpose. The Commission also had to improve the calculation of national income for the previous 15 years of Pakistan's existence. The results of the Commission's work, which included updated estimates of national income for 1949/50-1958/59 and recommendations for further improvement of macrostatic accounting, were published in 1964.At the same time, an important decision was made to calculate gross national product based on factor prices of 1959/60, and this decision remained unchanged for the next 20 years. 3
Among the important decisions of the Commission, it should also be noted that four types of calculations of macroeconomic indicators were carried out, which could "improve the preparation of plans for the country's economic development in the near future" [Economy of Pakistan..., 1968, p. 349].

These counts are as follows:

1. Calculation of the net national product of Pakistan, calculated separately for each province at current factor prices;

2. Calculation of the net national product of Pakistan, calculated separately for each province at constant factor prices 1959/60.;

3. Calculation of the gross national product of Pakistan, calculated separately for each province at current factor prices;

4. Calculation of the gross national product of Pakistan, calculated separately for each province at constant factor prices 1959/60.

Members of the commission clearly pointed out the need to clarify the size of the country's population, its growth rate, as well as the size of per capita income. In particular, it was noted that the population census of 1961 was conducted incorrectly, in particular, for one reason or another, a number of population groups in different regions of the country were not taken into account. Therefore, the population growth rate of Pakistan in the 1950s was recalculated again, taking into account the amendments made to the 1961 census. In order to get an idea of the size of the error in conducting a population census, we present the table below, which clearly shows the underestimation of a significant part of the population.-

3 Initially, this information was published in a separate publication [National Income..., 1964], and then in the Statistical Bulletin for 1965 [Statistical Bulletin, 1965]. The Commission's work was covered in detail in the journal of the Institute for Economic Development of Pakistan (Khan and Bergan, 1966).

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Table 2

Population of Pakistan according to the 1961 census, as well as later recalculated data (millions of people)

Year

According to the 1961 census.

Recalculated data

1959 - 60

91.9

98.9

1960 - 61

93.7

101.5

1961 - 62

95.6

104.1

1962 - 63

97.6

106.8

1963 - 64

-

109.6

Compiled from: [Economy of Pakistan..., 1968, p. 348].

Research Institute of Pakistan. Note that similar data can be given for the 1981 and 1998 censuses.

Accordingly, as a result of this kind of underestimation of the country's population, the average per capita size of the social product in that period was largely overestimated. In this regard, in the first half of the 1960s, these figures were also recalculated. Looking ahead, it should be noted that the census conducted in 1971, then in 1981 and 1998 also allowed for an underestimation of the country's population. In preparing for the census in the summer of 2011, the heads of the Population Census Organization operating under the Department of Statistics of the Ministry of Finance of Pakistan, trying to avoid gross errors (under-accounting)as much as possible in the course of its implementation, we divided the country into a larger number of census districts (423) and employed a larger number of census takers (91 thousand people). [The Pakistan Times, 2010]. For comparison, we note that during the census in 1998, there were a little more than 80 thousand such people.

Also, one of the important points contained in the Commission's report was the need to fully introduce the UN Standard System of National Accounts in Pakistan. At first glance, such a general formulation may seem quite unconstructive and even very primitive, but it is not. The fact is that since the beginning of the 1960s, the economy of Pakistan began to gradually "gain momentum", the pace of economic growth began to increase, which was a natural consequence of the increase in production in the main sectors of the economy - agriculture, industry, services, and other industries. What was particularly needed was, first, real information about the almost monthly, not to mention quarterly, state of the national economy of the country, and secondly, expanded information of this kind-i.e., the maximum possible quantitative statistical data, even if they were initially unreliable. But it was better than nothing at all. Therefore, the economic ministries and departments took the conclusions of the above-mentioned Commission very seriously and were ready to give appropriate instructions within their institutions, as well as to appeal to the country's leadership with a request to provide maximum assistance in solving the problems of organizing decent statistical accounting in Pakistan.

Moreover, the report of this Commission noted that there is a serious problem in organizing unified information on the main macroeconomic indicators, since there are quite a large number of" official " estimates of these indicators, which differ significantly from each other. Thus, in the published review of the economy of Pakistan for 1963/64 and the report on the economic situation of Pakistan

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for 1965 (all these materials were then prepared by the Planning Commission), completely different estimates of the gross national product were given, and they were based on different methods of calculating the leading economic indicator - GNP [Lewis, 1970, p. 85].

As is well known, the UN Statistics Department has published the International Statistical Handbook of National Accounts every year since 1953. While the first issues of such a macroeconomic yearbook (Yearbook of National Accounts Statistics) in the section "Pakistan" published only data on the sectoral structure of net domestic product (i.e., national income), calculated only in constant factor prices averaged for the period 1949-1952, then in 1963 it did not include any data on the industry structure of net domestic product (i.e., national income). not only the specified information, but also similar data about this parameter in current market prices. But the very next year, 1964, in the UN Yearbook of National Accounts, in accordance with the recommendations of the Commission on National Income, data on the sectoral structure of Pakistan's gross domestic product appeared in both current and constant factor prices 1959/60. The need to transfer all calculations of Pakistan's macroeconomic indicators to a later price base was associated with a significant, a very serious inflationary increase in prices in the country in the second half of the 1950s. Although, of course, external factors also had a negative impact on the need to make such a decision.

Here we will allow ourselves to digress a little from the study of the development of macroeconomic statistics in Pakistan and note that inflationary processes have always been observed in the country and will continue to "take place". Although it is reasonable to ask yourself a simple question: in which country is there no inflation? The problem is different - what is the growth rate of this inflation? And what measures have been taken and are being taken to contain it? The answer to these questions will be given below, and here we will note that in Pakistan, up to now, the base of estimated prices of leading macroeconomic indicators has changed twice more - in 1980 and in 2000.

In 1972/73, the Federal Statistical Bureau (FSB) attempted to transfer the price base in the system of national accounts from 1959/60 to 1969/70, but it was not successful due to the disparity of data in the manufacturing industry, and the then Committee on National Accounting recommended that the FSB transfer the price base to 1975/76. industries such as wholesale and retail trade, small-scale industry, some sub-sectors of agriculture, energy, etc. However, this attempt also failed. It was only later that this was achieved for 1980/81. And after 20 years, using the previous experience, the price base for calculating in constant factor prices was transferred to 1999-2000 [National Accounts of Pakistan..., 2004, p. 1].

Naturally, this did not help to compare the corresponding absolute indicators for different years, for example, GDP in 2000 with GDP in 1990 or 1980. Of course, it would be possible to calculate the size of GDP in terms of the dollar, i.e. using the current exchange rate of the rupee against the dollar, but such a calculation would suffer from a very serious stretch and it is unlikely to allow such comparisons to be made correctly.

For clarity, below we have placed a comparative table of the main macroeconomic indicators calculated on the basis of prices in 1980/81 and 1999-2000. At the same time, the corresponding data in current prices of 1999-2000 are taken as a basis. (the rupee's exchange rate against the dollar was 62 rupees per 1 US dollar in 2000.)

From the above numerical data, it is easy to see that the cost indicators in these years differ from each other by about 18-20%, although even a difference of 1% objectively does not make it possible to conduct a comparative analysis.

Returning to the main topic of our research, it should be repeated that until the mid-1960s. Pakistan provided information to the UN Statistics Department

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Table 3

Key macroeconomic cost indicators, calculated in base prices 1980/81 and 1999/2000, in millions of rupees

Macroeconomic indicators

1999/2000

In 1999/2000 prices

In 1980/81 prices.

Agricultural industry

923609

779692

Industry

798190

676369

Service sector

1807546

1495927

GDP

3529345

2951988

GNP

3481389

2907082

Per capita income

25314

21376

Compiled from: [National Accounts of Pakistan..., 2004, Table 1].

only on the sectoral structure of gross domestic product, calculated in both current and constant factor prices 1959/60.

Very timid first steps (mostly indirect ones) on the way to the formation of the calculation of national income at the second stage of reproduction-distribution-were made in the first half of the 1960s. It is true that certain but extremely primitive elements of calculating national income by income existed in the country before, but they did not have an independent meaning, but were intended to indirectly determine the amount of value added where it was impossible to directly determine it for objective reasons, primarily due to the extremely low qualification of Pakistani statisticians and statisticians. the very base on which such work could be carried out. For example, a third of the first national income calculations made in the 1950s were made by summing up the corresponding income rather than the value added value (Middle Eastern..., 1965, p. 50).

In 1964, the Pakistani economist Khadija Haq conducted a study of the uneven distribution of income among the urban population of Pakistan (Khadija Haq, 1964). But it was very unrepresentative, because, firstly, it was based on income tax data (rather than a sample survey of family income and expenses), and, secondly, as the author of the study herself noted, it affected only 0.5% of all families and 5% of urban families in the country.

But another, more important step in this direction was already the sample survey of personal income of the population of Pakistan, carried out by the Central Bureau of Statistics in 1963/64. It covered more than 8,000 families in villages and towns in East and West Pakistan (there is no objective way to single out the former West Pakistan). Based on this survey, the Norwegian economist A. Bergan compiled data on the social structure of national income for the first time in 1963/64, in other words, it was the first time to calculate national income at the distribution stage, albeit extremely simplified [Bergan, 1967]. According to A. Bergan's calculations, the overwhelming majority of national income was made up of personal income (over 94%).

Unfortunately, this sample survey did not mark the beginning of a regular survey of this kind. Although similar surveys were conducted in the following two years (1964/65 and 1965/66), they were not complete. First, they did not cover the entire fiscal year, but only part of it (January-

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December 1965), and secondly, the 1965/66 survey concerned only the urban population. The 1967/68 survey was not processed at all, so the data were not even published.

As a result, the most comprehensive surveys (of course, this term is used here not in absolute, but in relative terms), suitable for analyzing national income by income, were conducted in 1963/64, 1966/67 and 1968/69. Of particular importance was the fact that the 1966/67 and 1968/69 surveys were conducted according to a single scheme, which made it possible to compare their results.

Based on these three surveys, the Pakistani economist R. H. Khandker carried out a study of national income by income in these years, calculated the uneven distribution of income in the village and city, studied its dynamics during 1963-1969, and also showed the role of the financial system in the redistribution of national income [Khandker, 1973]. However, the findings of the Pakistani expert should be evaluated very critically, since they are based on unrepresentative sample surveys and also contain a significant number of rough estimates. The calculations made by the author showed a decrease in income inequality in Pakistan in 1963-1969, while in the country there was a general opinion among economists (and even more so among foreign experts) about the strengthening of this unevenness, and the author himself noted the discrepancy between digital survey data and a lot of indirect information that suggests exactly the opposite [Khandker, 1973, p. 13]. However, the significance of the research conducted by R. H. Khandker was so great at that time (even with all its shortcomings) that it was published in 1972. in an abridged form in the economic compendium on income distribution prepared by ECADB [Intraregional Trade..., 1972].

For the sake of justice, we note that in the second half of the 1960s, two more works appeared that were designed to contribute to the formation of a regular calculation of national income at the distribution stage. Thus, in 1967, Azizur Rahman Khan carried out a study of the dynamics of wages of manufacturing workers in Pakistan from 1954 to 1964 [Azizur Rahman, 1967]. The second work, written by the Bengali economist S. R. Bose, was devoted to the study of the dynamics of real incomes of the low-income segments of the rural population and covered 1949-1966 (Bose, 1968). However, these two studies did not make a significant contribution to the development of national accounts statistics at the distribution stage.

The difficulties of establishing the calculation of national income at the second stage of reproduction are understandable, since calculations using the distribution method can only be carried out by those countries that have reached at least an average level of development of their economic statistics. This is reflected, in particular, in the fact that at a certain stage of economic development, income tax (rather than indirect taxes) begins to play a decisive role in public finances, and it is income tax statistics that provide the main material for calculating national income at the distribution stage. However, in Pakistan, this source could not (and cannot even now) be used for these purposes, since only a small part of the country's population (a group of high income earners) was subject to this type of taxation. Moreover, over the entire history of Pakistan, the minimum non-taxable income tax rate has been increasing, and its rates have tended to decrease.

As for the land tax, its rates were set in the colonial period and after the formation of Pakistan, despite the repeated increase in prices, they were not revised. Therefore, the materials of land taxation could not be used to construct data on the income of the rural population. In this regard, it should be noted that even in the XXI century, the question of a full-fledged introduction of

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the issue of income tax was never resolved (a number of restrictions on tax rates continued to apply in this regard), which was repeatedly mentioned by political figures in the country4.

Ultimately, as a result of the continued "increased" focus on indirect taxes (which is quite understandable, these taxes are much easier to collect), as well as due to the massive evasion of middle and high income earners from paying income tax, regular ND statistics on income are still not available in Pakistan.

Counting at the third stage of reproduction could not be carried out in Pakistan for a long time due to the lack of statistics on private consumption in the country. To try to fill this gap, a sample survey of the family budgets of urban residents was conducted in 1955/56, and a sample survey of rural residents was conducted in 1960. A sample survey of personal expenditures of the rural population conducted in 1960 covered 250 villages in each province of the country; 8 families were selected from each village to survey and determine their monthly expenditures. The simplest extrapolation of the results of this survey to the entire rural population was obtained for the personal consumption of rural residents of Pakistan for the year.

As for the sample survey of family expenses of the urban population, it was carried out by the Central Statistical Bureau in 1955/56 in individual cities. A significant drawback was that it covered only groups of the low-paid population. The calculation of the current consumption of highly paid individuals was limited to a survey of the personal consumption of government employees working in Karachi. These two surveys were the basis for assessing the personal consumption of the urban population.

The first attempt to calculate the final social product at the stage of use was made by M. A. Khandkar in 1962; this calculation covered 1960/61 [Khandkar, 1965]. Private consumption (and this is the most difficult component for calculating the total volume of GDP at the third stage of reproduction) was calculated from the materials of the two sample surveys mentioned above, and public consumption was calculated from public finance statistics. The problem here is that the calculation of private consumption based on sample surveys is extremely inaccurate, and since private consumption is the main part of the use of the final social product, it introduces a large error in the overall calculation result. The vast majority of private consumption is made up of so-called personal consumption, and calculating the latter is the most difficult; its formation in developed countries took many decades, and in most of the middle-developed countries of Asia (not to mention countries with low-developed economies) it was almost everywhere absent, even at the beginning of the XXI century. This is due to the fact that the calculation should take into account the current expenses of millions of residents, the majority of whom are still illiterate. There are no government records of these expenditures or regular statistics on domestic trade in Pakistan yet.

Due to the lack of data on accumulation, M. Khandkar calculated investments. But even in this case, he was able to calculate not investments per se, but private and public development expenditures. Meanwhile, development expenditures, as they appear in statistics and economic literature, differ significantly from the size of capital investment: on the one hand, they include many non - capital expenditures, and on the other, they do not include many capital investments.

4 The leader of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, Altaf Hussein, repeatedly stated as early as 2010 that the ruling circles still pay almost no attention to the full implementation of land taxation, but instead are engaged in expanding the collection of indirect taxes, in particular sales tax [Dawn. 25.12.2010].

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An important step in establishing the calculation of the final social product at the stage of use was the research of Pakistani economists S. A. Abbas and T. M. Khan, who made presentations at the conference on macroeconomic statistics in Istanbul in 1962 [Abbas, 1965]. Both reports dealt with the problem of calculating investments. The main part of S. A. Abbas ' report was devoted to a theoretical understanding of the essence of capital investment and its role in economic development. Another part of his report was a review of the materials available in Pakistan for the annual calculation of capital expenditures, and data on the size of public and private investment in the years of the second five-year plan (1960-1965). The author noted, in particular, that there is no direct calculation of domestic savings in Pakistan and the latter were determined indirectly: by subtracting investments from external sources of capital investment financing (foreign aid, loans, and foreign private investment, as well as foreign currency reserves used for this purpose).

In the second report, made by T. M. Khan, the calculation of fixed capital investments was proposed only in 1960/61. The value of this study was that for the first time the author carried out this calculation using three independent methods provided for by the UN system of national accounts, and received the rate of fixed capital investment in the specified year in the amount of 9.4% of national income (Khan, 1965).

Established in 1963, the Commission on National Income (discussed above), in its final report submitted to the Central Bank and the Government of the country in February 1966, noted the great importance and necessity of regular calculations of the final social product at the stage of use and involving for this purpose sample surveys of family budgets necessary for calculating the private sector. consumption indicators that (surveys) should be conducted on a regular basis [Economy of Pakistan..., 1968, p. 351]. The Commission drew the attention of the CSB to the need to improve the calculation of fixed capital investments by dividing these calculations separately for rural areas and cities.

Thanks to the work done by the mid-1960s, since 1966, it has been possible to establish an annual calculation of the final social product at the third stage of reproduction, albeit so far in a very primitive, indirect way. However, unlike the experimental calculation of the use of this product in 1960/61, when private consumption was calculated directly on the basis of sample surveys of family budgets, the CSB determined this indicator indirectly, subtracting gross capital investment and state consumption from the sum of the final social product calculated using the production method [Naseem, 1975, p. 42-48]. Gross investment was calculated directly, while government consumption data was taken from public finance statistics. This indirect path was due to the lack of regular statistics on private consumption in the country. This is how the calculations of the use of the social product in the future were carried out.

It is no coincidence that we pay so much attention to the period of formation of national accounts statistics and single out specific researchers who have made an invaluable contribution to solving these complex issues. It was then that the foundations of this kind of statistics were laid, which later only improved in its individual parts and components. But the first stage, as you know, can be the most difficult; and in this case it was exactly so, despite the help of experts from the UN Statistics Department, specialists from developed countries and international organizations.

In order to examine the extent to which the national accounting system in Pakistan changed in the 1970s and 2010, and how drastic the adjustments made to this system were (and whether they were even drastic), we decided to analyze the materials of the Federal (no longer Central) Bureau of Statistics.-

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National Accounts of Pakistan..., 2004), and compare them with the calculations and calculation methodology that were established in the 1960s.

A comparison of the texts of the Introduction of this work with the final document prepared by the Commission on National Income showed that they are almost identical, which indicates that there have been no fundamental changes both in the methods of calculating the final social product (i.e., advancement) and in the cardinal improvement of the calculation methods themselves [National Accounts of Pakistan... , 2004, p. 1 - 2]. This circumstance can hardly be considered negative - the process of developing the newly created system of national accounts, even in developed countries where there are well-trained, highly qualified personnel of national statisticians, takes more than a decade. Therefore, it is not surprising that this process has been extremely slow in Pakistan. Until now, the calculation of national income at the stage of income distribution has not become regular. In practice, the Pakistani State has begun to pay attention not so much to smoothing income inequality as to implementing various State programs to combat poverty and misery. First of all, this applies to the Poverty Reduction and Social Development Program. However, this topic is so broad that it goes far beyond the tasks set out in this section to study the formation and development of macroeconomic statistics, primarily statistics of national accounts.

Next, we would like to consider and analyze the question of how the final social product (GDP or GNP, or national income - in this case, it does not matter which category is decisive; in most cases it is GDP, but the so-called Gross National Product has become increasingly used) has been calculated in practice up to now. Revenue).

Due to the lack of data necessary for calculating the final social product, Pakistan could not use any one method of calculation. Gross national product calculations were performed using a combination of the first and third methods. To a very small extent, the distribution method was also used indirectly (but not as an independent one, independent of the first and third methods of calculating national income).

Production method (which occupies a fundamental place) It was used to calculate value added in agriculture, mining and manufacturing industries, and construction. The distributional method - only by accounting for the corresponding income-was used in calculating value added in transport and communications, trade and credit, home ownership and management (i.e., in a number of service industries). The final product method has been used relatively little - for calculating value added in some service industries and fisheries in East Pakistan [National Accounts..., 1974, p. VII].

From our point of view, it is advisable to consider how, in practice, the Central Bureau of Statistics of Pakistan carried out the calculation of the final social product using an already established, albeit not yet fully developed, methodology.

The calculation of value added generated in agriculture was carried out in four sectors: agriculture, animal husbandry, fishing and forestry. The value added in agriculture, in turn, was divided into the value created in this area by the main and secondary crops. The gross value of basic crops at current prices was calculated by multiplying the annual output by its average price. Prices for secondary crops were taken in

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80% of their wholesale prices; then the gross value was calculated in the same way as shown above. Value added was calculated by subtracting the value of intermediate products (i.e., the cost of seeds, fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides, irrigation costs, etc.) from the total gross value of major and minor crops.Due to the lack of data on the cost of some agricultural crops, the gross value of major and minor crops increased by 4%.

The gross value of animal products was calculated in the same way as in agriculture; but in this sphere, because of the very small value of intermediate products, the gross value was assumed to be equal to the value added.

Prices for fishery products were reduced by 10%; then the gross value was calculated in the same way as in agriculture. To calculate the value added, its gross size was reduced by 3% (to exclude re-counting).

The gross value of forestry products was calculated based on the auction price of wood, and its reduction by 3% (to avoid re-counting) resulted in added value created in this branch of the economy. Summing up the value added in these four agricultural sectors, the FBS obtained the value of conditional net products created in agricultural production. Depreciation in this sector of the economy was estimated at 5%.

The calculation of the cost of mining products was carried out in the same way as in agriculture. To avoid re-invoicing and generate value added, the gross value was reduced by 17%. Depreciation in this industry was taken at the rate of 5%.

The calculation of value added created in large-scale industrial production of the manufacturing industry was initially carried out on the basis of the industrial census of 1959/60, during which the value added created in the specified year at each large-scale industrial enterprise was calculated. In subsequent years, the total amount of value added was calculated by multiplying it by the index of large-scale industrial production in a given year compared to the base year (i.e. 1959/60). However, this option was used if the corresponding censuses of the manufacturing industry were not conducted. In the case of the latter, the calculation of value added was carried out on the basis of data from such censuses (the last of these censuses available to us refers to 2001 - "Census of Manufacturing Industries 2000-2001" [Census..., 2001]). Depreciation was taken at the rate of 10%.

The calculation of value added created in small-scale industrial production was carried out indirectly; it was calculated in 1959/60 (by multiplying the number of employees in this industry by the average value added created by each employee), and then the value added was calculated based on the growth of employees in this industry by an average of 2.7% per year. Depreciation was taken at the rate of 5%.

Due to the lack of data necessary for calculating the value added generated in construction, the contribution of this branch of the economy to the creation of the final social product was estimated indirectly separately for the city and rural areas. In the city, the cost of construction was considered equal to ten times the cost of the cement used in this process; further, it was assumed that 40% of the total amount received is the added value created in construction in the city. In rural areas, the calculation of value added created in this industry was based on data on land rent: here the assumption was taken that land rent is 8% of gross value, and the value added, in turn, is equal to half of its value. Depreciation was 2.5%.

The amount of value added generated in the energy, gas, water and sanitation sectors was calculated using the final product method. Based on provincial data

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The average per capita expenditure on these services was calculated separately in each province, and then the data obtained were multiplied by the urban provincial population. It was assumed that total expenditures in this sector of the economy increased from year to year in the same proportion as the population of cities. Depreciation in these sectors of the national economy was calculated (but not taken on the basis of some rough estimate!) in the amount of 6.7% of gross value added.

As for the contribution to the creation of the final social product of such industries as transport and communications, trade, the credit system, management, and a number of other areas of the service sector, here the value added was calculated by summing up the income and profits of all persons employed in these industries, i.e., the calculation of value added was carried out using the income distribution method.

It should be noted that these calculation methods, which began to be used in the 60s of the last century, continued to be used almost unchanged in the first decade of the XXI century [National Accounts of Pakistan..., 2004, p. 2-6].

Thus, up to the first decade of the XXI century (inclusive) Pakistan actually continued to carry out an independent calculation of the final social product (first of all, GDP, and then on its basis already GNP) almost only at the production stage, summing up data on the value added created in the sectors of material production and services. As in most other developing countries in Asia, there is still no regular counting at the distribution stage. Sample surveys conducted since the 1960s, however, have provided valuable material for assessing the income and expenditure of various strata of Pakistani society, and this, in turn, has allowed at least a rough estimate of income inequality, as well as the size of personal (and on its basis, private) consumption, in which the population is divided into two groups. first of all, its structure. Nevertheless, the calculation of the final social product at the stage of use was carried out partly indirectly: private consumption was regularly determined by subtracting government consumption and gross investment from the value of this product calculated using the production method. Although the qualitative characteristics of the macroeconomic statistics obtained so far are very far from perfect, nevertheless, the statistics currently available in Pakistan make it possible to analyze the country's economic development at the macroeconomic level.

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Khandkar M.A.H. An Estimate of the National Expenditure of Pakistan, 1960 - 1 // Middle Eastern Studies in Income and Wealth. L., 1965.

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Naseem S.M.A. Consistent Series of National Accounts for East and West Pakistan: 1949 - 50 to 1969 - 70 // The Pakistan Development Review. Spring 1975.

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