The global financial and economic crisis has had a serious impact on the economy and balance of power in Southeast Asia (SE), the construction of the common economic and military-political space of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The rivalry between China and the United States for influence in this region has significantly increased.

ACCELERATING ECONOMIC INTEGRATION

The consequences of the current crisis for the countries of the region turned out to be much more extensive, multifaceted and long - term than during the crisis of 1997-1998, as multinational companies (TNCs) and banks continue to withdraw their capital in the face of a sharp shortage of liquidity, thereby destroying the investment environment and draining the real sector of the region's economy. In the countries of the region, they do not hide the fact that the social costs will also be huge: the growth of unemployment, the impoverishment of a significant part of the population, and the aggravation of the food problem*.

According to forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, in 2009 it is expected to fall by 0.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) The ASEAN Five (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam) compared to 6.3% growth in 2007 and 4.8% in 2008, 2010 is expected to be sluggish, by the usual standards for these countries, the growth of their economies by 3.7% ¹.

Despite the fact that the annual ASEAN Summit of Heads of State and Government was postponed in 2009 due to political instability in Thailand until 2010, the conferences of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Trade, Finance, Communications and Communications made important decisions aimed at ever closer regional integration. They cover both the sphere of political interaction and economic cooperation. Many of the adopted joint documents can be considered as a response of the Southeast Asian countries to the deepening global financial and economic crisis and to new challenges to the existing status quo in the region.

The joint commitment to complete the establishment of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) by 2015 was confirmed at a meeting of Foreign Ministers in Jakarta in December 2008. Nizam Idris, a well-known economist at the Singapore-based IDEA Global research center, explained the general interest in steadily moving towards this goal, noting that " the ASEAN countries are not eager to allow more efficient Chinese and American companies to enter their markets. That is why they are trying to create an alliance in order to somehow resist the pressure of the two leading world powers. " ²

The decision of the meeting of Foreign Ministers was a logical conclusion to accelerate the process of regional economic integration. Thus, at the 40th ASEAN Economic Development Ministers ' Meeting in August 2008, participants agreed to consider removing all non-tariff barriers to trade between the two countries as soon as possible.

They also agreed to allow the free movement of doctors across State borders.³ The solution of this seemingly private issue actually meant a breakthrough in integration, the beginning of the formation of a free labor market within the framework of the free trade zone being created. It is characteristic of the very process of this integration into ASEAN, which takes place in small, almost microscopic steps. But the fact is that the free search for work by doctors in the countries of the Association will pave the way for engineers, then scientists, students, and so a new reality will develop step by step.

CHINA IS SCARIER THAN DISSIDENTS

The main event in the field of political integration, of course, can be considered the completion of the process of ratification of the Charter, or Charter, of ASEAN - the fundamental document that sets out the goals and regulates the forms and nature of relations within the organization.

Despite certain disagreements over the adoption of commitments on human rights and freedom of the press and information, in the context of the financial crisis and the growing economic instability in the world, the ruling elites of the ASEAN countries decided not to start a polemic around the Charter, but to ratify this document in the form in which it was approved at the summit of the organization's leaders in Singapore at the end of 2007. Go to Yandex. Con-

* For more information, see: Voronin A. S. ASEAN. Test for strength / / Asia and Africa today, 2009, N 9.

In 2008, the Charter was adopted by all countries and became a valid document.

This document is distinguished by the fact that it provides the necessary formalization of common standards and criteria related to human rights, the preservation of democratic freedoms, free elections, and freedom of the press. But despite the positive significance of the Charter's adoption as a new step in the process of integration of the Association countries, it should be noted that the implementation of its provisions under certain circumstances is fraught with the risk of undermining the unity of the regional bloc. Until recently, the organization proceeded from the principle that the participating States act as a united front in the international arena, but under no circumstances do they interfere in each other's internal affairs. This approach, on the one hand, preserved the amorphous nature of the regional organization, and on the other, allowed us to maintain unity and not react to complex internal events and processes in the participating States.

Today, according to the adopted Charter, this practice is over: the ASEAN countries can and should demand that their members respect basic civil rights and freedoms. And influential international human rights organizations have been able to increase pressure on regimes that do not comply with the provisions of this document, and have already made extensive use of these opportunities in the preparation of the ASEAN summit postponed from 2008 to February 2009.

The emergence of another crisis situation in Myanmar, for example, may raise the question for the ASEAN countries of how to react and even condemn the military regime for its harsh actions against the opposition. Moreover, it should be condemned not by the speeches of retired politicians known for their pro-Western sentiments and liberalism, but at the official level, with all the ensuing consequences for the Association's relations with Myanmar. The risk of this kind of ambiguity exists in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam, where the political scene continues to be dominated by the Communist Party alone, with no intention of allowing the opposition, let alone sharing power with it.

Nevertheless, we should not exaggerate the threat of internal division of the regional bloc in connection with possible attempts to apply the Charter's provisions in terms of human rights and freedoms. The leaders of the ASEAN countries are likely to take a wait-and-see attitude, based primarily on the overall system of priorities. And in this system, human rights and democratic freedoms are far from the first place, the main thing is to preserve the internal unity of the Association's member countries.

It is impossible for ASEAN to take harsh measures against the military regime in Myanmar, including expulsion from the organization, because isolation would make Yangon completely dependent on China as its only ally and economic donor. And this, according to some analysts, is fraught with the appearance of Chinese naval bases on the coast of Arakan, which can thoroughly undermine the military-political balance of power in the region.

There are already voices saying that the Charter is the document of tomorrow and its provisions should be considered as an ideal that all countries and regimes should strive for. This approach will preserve the principle of non-interference in each other's internal affairs, which has been proven for many years.

The method of small steps, which ultimately leads to major changes, was also clearly manifested in the sharp activation of military-political cooperation between the Association's member countries.

The ASEAN Foreign Ministers ' meeting in Jakarta, which took place in mid-December 2008, signed an agreement on conducting a joint fight against terrorism.⁴ The main novelty of this document is that it has not become an empty declaration on military cooperation, of which many were adopted earlier, but is a document that specifically specifies how and how this cooperation will develop. It is noted, for example, that the ASEAN member states should share relevant secret information with each other, and strengthen the interaction of national intelligence services. Moreover, the document provides for joint anti-terrorist exercises and, in the future, the creation of unified special forces to counter terrorism. Thus, the traditionally influential military and military-intelligence agencies in most countries are involved in real cooperation, which can greatly facilitate the implementation of the project.

next steps to integrate the ASEAN Ten at a new and higher level in this important area ⁵.

THE US IS LOSING GROUND TO CHINA

The ASEAN countries perceive the rapid change in the balance of power and interests of the great Powers in Southeast Asia as a serious danger.

The countries of the region are trying to diversify their policy directions as much as possible and dissolve Chinese ambitions in a wide range of countries with which they have developed cooperation. In fact, the signing and ratification of the Charter itself, with its blatant orientation in politics towards the West and Western values, became a kind of demonstrative gesture, a challenge to China's growing influence.

The global financial and economic crisis has directly affected a significant change in the nature of these processes, sharply weakening the US position in the region. In the pro-American circles of the Association countries, it is painfully worried that Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and most importantly, the global crisis are increasingly pushing the South - East Asian direction in the American foreign policy strategy to the periphery. The ruling circles of ASEAN believed that under the Bush administration they were unable to reach the highest American echelons of power, even though the United States continues to be the second most important trading partner of the Association countries.

Singapore political analysts noted with concern that "in East Asia, we have never seen the United States as weakened as it is now, and America is as integral to Asian development as China is." ⁶

In this regard, an open letter from J. R. R. Tolkien is characteristic. To President George W. Bush, representatives of those circles that advocate American preponderance in the region. This "cry of the soul" began with these words:: "Mr. President, the modern world has already become post-American. This is an indisputable fact. But we pray that it will not be a world without America."

The authors of the letter called on Washington to take the following measures to maintain the US presence in the region: organize a meeting with the leaders of ASEAN, Japan, and India, as China did; sign the ASEAN Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in Southeast Asia after the PRC and other great powers; and step up its participation in the Asian Regional Forum (ARF). and promote its transformation from an instrument of trust to an instrument of preventive diplomacy; initiate a dialogue with ASEAN on energy security, climate change and human rights (especially since an ad hoc committee on human rights is being established, as set out in the ASEAN Charter); and remain committed to the idea of globalization, which is the foundation of the global agenda. American "soft power"; organize a joint speech of the US and ASEAN business circles with an initiative aimed at improving and developing infrastructure in Southeast Asian countries; strengthen cooperation in preventing the spread of avian influenza and other new threats of this type (AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis); develop cultural and scientific exchange programs to establish cultural ties between the two countries., artistic and intellectual bridges with ASEAN countries, as France, Great Britain and China do (Confucius Institute); create a group of prominent politicians to analyze the entire complex of US-ASEAN relations and make recommendations for improving their strategic level.

The letter also called for a constructive approach to the rise of Asia, especially China and India, and for China to be seen as a partner rather than a rival in the international arena. ⁷

The Association began to think about finding an alternative to American influence. Many see it as strengthening military ties between Japan and India, a process that already took tangible shape in 2008. In October 2008, during the visit of Indian Prime Minister Monmohan Singh to Tokyo, a joint declaration on security cooperation was signed. The declaration also refers to joint exercises and counter-terrorism activities. The proposal to conduct regular naval exercises is typical: it indirectly points to a common problem that is of concern to both countries - the rapid strengthening of the Chinese Navy.

At the same time, it is obvious that somehow replacing the weakening of the American presence in the region with an Indian-Japanese tandem is hardly feasible. The PRC is immeasurably stronger than this fragmented and shaky "alliance". The Obama administration has responded to calls to pay attention to Southeast Asia. Participating in the 16th Annual ASEAN Regional Forum, held in Phuket, Thailand, in July 2009, US Secretary of State H. E. Clinton said the United States is "coming back" to Asia and signed a treaty of friendship and cooperation in Southeast Asia. Thus, the United States joined 24 other countries: in particular, China signed this document back in 2003.

NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR BEIJING

In ASEAN countries, in the face of the financial crisis, talk of the Chinese threat that "we have not yet become passengers on the China Express"⁸ has faded into the background. Today, it is not good wishes that are relevant here, but issues of economic survival. Without China and the Chinese market, which is less affected by the global crisis than the United States and Japan, this is almost impossible to achieve.

In this regard, ASEAN was forced to accept Chinese proposals to deepen integration and to actually strengthen China's position in the region.

The countries of the region had no choice but to agree that China should contribute $38.4 billion to the newly formed regional monetary fund. However, Japan also contributed ^the same amount to it9. However, the Japanese contribution was in some ways forced, since it was Beijing that was the most consistent supporter of the creation of a regional fund to support the economies of East Asia independent of the IMF. Speaking at the session of the Board of the Asian Development Bank, Chinese Deputy Finance Minister Li Yun noted that " the Asian countries that survived the Asian financial crisis in 1998 are able to counteract the current crisis." He called on Asian countries to fully utilize the regional financial assistance mechanism and ensure financial stability in ^the region10.

Beijing, sensing a change in the balance of power in Southeast Asia, has stepped up its efforts to become the main economic and political partner of the ASEAN states.

Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said, commenting on the results of the meeting of finance ministers of leading Asian countries held in Indonesia in early May 2009, that " China intends to allocate the funds of the future fund for the development of infrastructure projects in the ASEAN area." He also added that Beijing plans to allocate loans to ASEAN member countries totaling $15 billion, of which $1.7 billion. They will be provided on a priority basis and will be used to develop cooperation between neighboring countries ¹¹.

In 2008, the ASEAN member countries ' trade with China increased to a record $ 231 billion.¹²

It is planned that in 2010, after a two-year pause due to various delays on the part of the ASEAN states, mechanisms for implementing trade, economic and investment cooperation should be put into operation, as the parties agreed back in 2007. According to Xue Hanqian, China's chief negotiator for the formation of a free trade zone, the implementation of agreements on free economic zones for goods and services has already begun, and negotiations on mutual investment have also been completed.

In addition, by 2010, China intends to eliminate trade duties for Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, and by 2015 to establish the same most-favored-nation treatment in trade with Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar. At the opening of the annual joint China-ASEAN Industrial Exhibition in Nanyin, the need for rapid development of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Zone, which will become the 3rd in the world, was pointed out. The idea was supported by both the Chinese Premier and the leaders of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines, Vietnam and Brunei who arrived at the opening ceremony of the exhibition. ¹³

Today, this forecast looks more than realistic, although China still remains only the 4th most important trading partner of the ASEAN countries after the United States, Japan and the European Union. But it is the most dynamic against the background of the decline in the competing countries.

* * *

Thus, Southeast Asia has become a region where the global financial and economic crisis leads to serious changes not only in trade and economic relations and integration processes, but also in the regional system of international relations, primarily in the balance of power and influence between China and the United States. The crisis provides China with a unique opportunity to push its geopolitical rivals in Southeast Asia even further and tie the region's countries to its giant market. But the Obama administration is also trying to maintain the US position in the region.

¹ IMF World Outlook Update / Contractionary Forces Receding But Weak Recovery Ahead/ 8.08.2009 - http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/02/ index.htm

² RBC daily, 17.12.2008.

³ Straits Times, 27.08.2008.

⁴ RBC daily...

⁵ Ibidem.

⁶ Straits Times, 17.09.2008.

⁷ Ibid.

⁸ SE 2007-2008. Moscow, 2008, p. 39.

⁹ RBC, 3.05.2009.

¹⁰ China International Radio, 04.05. 2009 - http://russian.cri.cn

¹¹ Prime-TASS, 04.05.09.

¹² People's Daily, 10.04.2009.

¹³ http://eng.caexpo.org/news 20081023

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