A. A. SIMONIA. MYANMAR: TRANSITION TO A MARKET ECONOMY (1988-2011). MOSCOW: IV RAS, 2012. 223 p.

Since 1988, Myanmar (until 1989, Burma), one of the most closed and least developed countries in the world, has entered a new critical stage of development. Its essence is the rejection of the administrative-command system of economic management and the transition to the rails of a market economy. As a result of this sharp turn, Myanmar, as the author notes in the introduction, "may finally be able to move forward.".. it will cease to be an outcast in the world community and will take its place in the international division of labor " (p. 7).

A. A. Simonyi's monograph is the first work in Russian Burmese studies, in which the author constructed a model of Myanmar's transition to a market economy. The work is original and interesting in its design. This is not a purely economic study, but an attempt, quite successful, to show the regularity of interaction and mutual influence of economics and politics in the most complex process of changing typologically opposite economic, political, and ideological systems. At the same time, the author recreates the picture of truly dramatic changes and upheavals in the recent history of Myanmar, which condemned Burmese society to years of stagnation in the economy, harsh, authoritarian-repressive methods in state politics, poverty and disenfranchisement of the vast majority of Burmese.

It is very difficult to overcome the influence of stable, negative factors that hinder the development of society. The country's transition period, which continues into the second decade of the twenty-first century, is marked by many contradictions and difficulties, partly inherited from the past, and partly generated by the specifics of today's rapidly changing Burmese realities.

In my opinion, one of the advantages of A. A. Simonia's work is the absence of categorical, one-dimensional conclusions and conclusions, the predominance of a balanced, critical approach to the analysis and assessment of certain phenomena, processes and trends observed in the country. Such a scientific and critical approach is particularly noticeable in those sections of the monograph that are devoted, according to the author, to the study of the"Burmese path to capitalism".

Speaking about the interaction of economics and politics, I would define one of the key topics of the work (along with economic issues) as an analysis of the nature of power in Myanmar in the form of two rigid military regimes: left-authoritarian in 1962-1988 and right-authoritarian after the military coup of 1988 variants, the composition and behavior patterns of the ruling military elite. The term "military junta", which is widely used in Burmese studies, seems to me not entirely accurate. In any case, the reviewed work convincingly shows that the supreme power of the military in Myanmar is realized in the form of the autocratic dictatorships of Generals Ne Win and Tan Shwe. They both held the political decision-making mechanism in their hands, wielding maximum power.

The author managed to show consistently the entire path taken by Burma after independence (1948): a short, doomed to failure, stage of parliamentary democracy (1948-1962); the 26th anniversary of the military-authoritarian regime of General Ne Win (1962-1988) with its failed experience of socialist orientation; finally, a multi-faceted, fundamental study of the economic and political development of Myanmar after the events of 1988

The work is written exactly with clearly formulated tasks and conclusions. Nevertheless, I would like to highlight a number of the most interesting and valuable plots from a conceptual point of view.

In chapter I - its economic part, where the author reproduces a generalized picture of the collapse of the economic system of the "Burmese path to socialism". The study of the irreversible collapse of the regime's socio-economic strategy is based on recent analytical and statistical materials. The conclusion about the impact of the economic crisis on the political destabilization of society and the growth of social tension, which eventually spilled out into a mass protest movement, is justified. However, I would like to see a more detailed description of the "politics-economy" feedback loop in the sense of the influence of the political and ideological dogmas of the Burmese Path to Socialism program on the development of the state's economic strategy. It would be appropriate, in retrospect, to give a modern assessment of the Burmese variety of "socialist orientation", which is known to have had many special features.-

specific features (the main thing is the course towards its own special Burmese path of development, which was expressed, in particular, in the policy of self-isolation, autarky, and isolation from the outside world).

Chapter II contains a series of storylines that reflect the first steps of the transition to market reforms. Here, the economic, political, ideological, and external (again in the "economy-politics" link) aspects of the development of society in the initial phase of its transition stage are interesting. For the first time, the author notes the fundamental difference between the military coup in September 1988 and the two previous ones in 1958 and 1962 ."..In those cases, their goal was to end civilian rule, whereas in 1988 the army seized power to support an agonized, almost collapsed regime " (p. 35). And further (which is very valuable for understanding the nature of the new military-authoritarian government and the further evolution of the regime): "From the very first days, the new rulers resolutely set out to change the policy... countries... As the subsequent course of events showed, the ideology has completely changed, but the methods of management have remained unchanged... " (p. 35).

Taking this conclusion into account, and considering that it is impossible to analyze the entire set of problems discussed in this chapter in any detail within the review, I will limit myself to listing, in my opinion, the most important points.

In politics, plot # 1 is the rather rapid and purposeful ascent of General Tan Shwe, who since the second half of the 1990s has concentrated all power in his hands, becoming a leader-dictator and remaining the central figure of the political establishment in the first decade of the XXI century.

Another cross-cutting theme not only in this chapter, but also in the essence of the entire work as a whole is the Burmese response to the challenges of military - authoritarian power, which was expressed in the growth of social protest, dissidence, and the emergence of organizations and parties of a democratic orientation. The largest and most authoritative National League for Democracy (NLD), which is permanently headed by the popular and charismatic female leader Aung San Suu Kyi, the daughter of Burma's national hero Aung San. For Burmese, it has become a symbol of confrontation with the dictatorial regime. A. A. Simonia traces the difficult life of Aung San Suu Kyi, from her imprisonment by the authorities under house arrest in 1989 to the present day. At the same time, the author, while sympathizing quite understandably with this selfless, unyielding woman in her democratic beliefs, manages to maintain scientific restraint and weighty assessments of the role of the NLD in the political process in Myanmar at different stages of development.

The sections devoted to the economy deal with the development of a new economic strategy aimed at eliminating strict regulation, switching to market mechanisms, liberalizing the economy, expanding the participation of private capital, and attracting foreign investment. An excellent illustration of the first steps taken by the country's leadership to implement market reforms is the author's Chronology of Major Reforms in Myanmar, 1987-2010, compiled from publications in the official Burmese press (pp. 46-48).

The author notes that the Myanmar leadership managed to fulfill a number of tasks set for reorientation to a market economy. But the process of economic liberalization was more or less successful only until the mid-1990s.

One cannot but agree with the author's conclusion that further progress on the path of market reforms was negatively affected by the introduction of economic sanctions against Myanmar, first by the United States, then by EU countries, as well as a boycott by international financial organizations that refused to resume financial assistance to the country. Officially, the sanctions were imposed in protest against the anti-democratic, repressive military regime in Myanmar; the lifting of the boycott by international financial organizations was made conditional on the release of Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest.

The author comes to the conclusion that economic sanctions in general have not achieved their goal. The West has failed to completely isolate the country. As a member of ASEAN (since 1997), Myanmar has expanded its economic cooperation with the Association's member countries and two Asian giants, China and India, which have become major trading partners and investors in Myanmar's economy.

The negative consequences of the Western policy of sanctions were reflected in the further impoverishment of the mass segments of the population, but, according to the author, they "did not affect the comfortable life of the highest echelon of power" (p.61). It can be added that the continuous decline in living standards directly affected the maintenance of a high potential for mass discontent, increasing the level of social and political tension and thereby increasing the level of social and political unrest.

setting the stage for a social explosion. This, in turn, contributed up to a certain point to further tightening the repressive, anti-popular course of the ruling regime. Trends towards an exorbitant increase in social and political tension were focused and realized in the tragic events of 2007-2008, the beginning of which was the "Saffron Revolution".

Chapter III, which focuses on the study of the "saffron revolution" phenomenon, is important both in scientific-theoretical and factual terms. This is the first description in our literature of the "saffron revolution" of the mass peaceful demonstrations of Buddhist monks in September 2007, who took to the streets to protest against the authorities ' repeated measures to repeatedly raise prices for basic necessities, which put the majority of the poorest population on the verge of extinction. Ordinary Burmese people spontaneously joined the monks, protesting against unacceptable living conditions. The authorities initially took a wait-and-see attitude, not daring to use force against monks in a Buddhist country. But when the number of demonstrators grew to almost one hundred thousand people, and economic slogans began to turn into political slogans (demands for "national reconciliation", the release of Moon San Suu Kyi and all political prisoners), the military forcibly suppressed the movement (police used tear gas, water cannons, rubber bullets, batons to disperse the demonstrators).

But in this chapter, the main thing is not the presentation of facts necessary to understand the situation, but its analytical part. The author quite naturally pays attention to the question of how it is formulated in the subtitle, "who tried to organize the saffron revolution?" (p.66). There are many versions of the underlying causes of the September 2007 events. The author considers the most common version, including among American researchers, about the impact of external forces on the organization of mass anti-government protests. A. A. Simoniya, in particular, focuses on the position of the American researcher of geopolitical problems in the field of energy, U. V. Simoniya. Engdahl, who claims that the September events were organized with the help and in the interests of the United States. Moreover, he rejects the usual motives of American propaganda and scientific research for democracy and human rights violations in Myanmar, pointing to the main pragmatic goal of the Americans - geopolitical control over the sea route from the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea (p.68).

A. A. Simoniya comments on U.'s position as follows: Engdala: "It's hard to disagree with this statement, since 80% of the oil imported from the Middle East is delivered to China through the Strait of Malacca. Whoever controls the Strait of Malacca also controls oil flows to China, so it is difficult to overestimate the importance of the coastal zone of Myanmar for further development of the region" (p. 68). Moreover, the American researcher's point of view completely coincides with the position of the Myanmar military authorities, who deny the possibility of a spontaneous outbreak of anti-government protests, especially those initiated by mass protests of monks.

The author's position on this problem is expressed quite clearly. Without denying the possibility of directing events by external forces, the author believes that when studying the phenomenon of the "saffron revolution", it is necessary to take into account the specific mentality and national character of Burmese people. "As the turbulent history of Burma throughout the 20th century shows, events in this country often start with a minor reason, and then flare up like a "jungle fire", according to a Burmese proverb. There is no doubt that the mass demonstrations of 2007 were largely spontaneous in nature" (p. 68).

If we talk about the consequences of the September crisis, then, in my opinion, it turned out to be a kind of political and psychological boundary, having reached which the military regime could no longer continue its previous tough, unilaterally repressive state policy.

The change in the behavior of the ruling military elite was influenced by a whole range of internal and external factors. Among them, the persistence of social tensions that create the ground for new outbreaks of protest, the continuing activity of the democratic opposition led by the popular Aung San Suu Kyi. External forces of pressure on the regime the unanimous condemnatory reaction of the international community to the brutal massacre of demonstrators by the military in September 2007, including the active position of the UN on the "Burma issue", including the ASEAN states, again condemning acts of violence by the Burmese military authorities, and finally the new tightening of economic sanctions by the United States and others Western countries (pp. 70-71).

It seems to me that the author somewhat belittles the importance of these factors in terms of their pressure on the ruling military elite, highlighting as the main incentive for Myanmar's turn towards political liberalization the desire of Tan Shwe and the top military leaders close to him to ensure "security and well-being in the future" (p.84). Without denying the significance of this incentive, I should note that the ruling elite was concerned about the threat of being isolated from the world community again and facing the real danger of new outbreaks of mass anti - government protests and, as a result, the possibility of plunging the country into a state of political chaos and economic ruin. It is no coincidence, the author emphasizes, that the Myanmar authorities made considerable efforts to resolve the crisis situation (China, Myanmar's main economic partner, played a decisive role in this process, of course, driven primarily by its own interests).

As a result, Myanmar's rulers agreed to implement a reform program - the "road map to a disciplined democracy" (its main milestones are a national referendum on the attitude to the new constitution, its approval and holding parliamentary elections on a multi-party basis based on the new constitution). In all the activities related to the implementation of the road map, the author highlights the special leading role of General Tan Shwe. "The decision to reanimate the road map and hold elections is a personal decision of the most senior General Tan Shwe "(p. 84). Using dictatorial powers, being a strong and pragmatic politician, Tan Shwe managed to secure all the functions of the supreme ruler after the 2010 elections and the formal transition to a civilian form of government, putting both the army and civilian authorities under personal control. I note that the fate of Tan Shwe at the final stage of authoritarianism is radically different from the inglorious departure from the political scene of two other well-known dictators in Southeast Asia-the Philippine F. Marcos and the Indonesian Suharto.

Chapters IV-VII focus on a single topic: the peculiarities of the development of a market economy in Myanmar, while demonstrating the mutual influence of economic, social and political aspects of this process.

One of the most important storylines is the emergence of the civilian business elite in recent years and its merging with the top military personnel who make up the top of the business community. This process gained momentum, and, according to the author, Myanmar "consolidated military-bureaucratic capitalism and formed a military-oligarchic or clan version of it" (p. 206). The emergence of this type of post-authoritarian socio - economic model, as follows from the experience of other countries typologically similar to Myanmar, is characterized by an increase in corruption and the appropriation of income from the sale of energy resources (in Myanmar-natural gas) by the ruling elite stratum.

Finally, the relevance of the study is due to the growing geopolitical role of Myanmar not only at the regional, but, one might say, at the global level. According to the author, Myanmar "... has another, perhaps even more valuable advantage besides the availability of raw materials: the country is located in a place where the geopolitical interests of China, India, the ASEAN countries and indirectly the United States directly collide" (p.72).

The paper also draws a very serious conclusion, which is directly related to the above about the growing geopolitical role of Myanmar. According to the author, Myanmar has gained access "to the circle of those countries whose governments use the availability of oil or natural gas to solve their political problems and maintain power... Such countries have the opportunity to " buy "the political support of strong allies" (p. 71).

Returning to the structural structure of the work, I would like to point out that it is unusual for our monographic studies, but functionally necessary in this case, to place the section "Preliminary remarks"at the very beginning of the text of the work. It includes a whole range of information about Burmese names, new geographical names, various terms and ethnonyms, which, given the complexity of translating and transcribing them into Russian, greatly facilitates the perception of the text. Thus, the "Preliminary notes" completely replace the traditional name, geographical and similar indexes traditionally placed at the end of the book.

But there are also criticisms concerning the design of the text and the scientific apparatus.

The content part of the work would undoubtedly benefit if the notes were arranged in chapters (in this case, traditionally). It would be possible to transfer some of the material from the main text (for example, about superstitions, "chislomania" among the Burmese rulers); to give more detailed information of an eventful or biographical nature, as, for example, is done in footnote 7, which provides interesting data on the life and career evolution of General Aung Ji.

Given that the monograph is written on a plentiful source, literary and statistical material, in my opinion, it is necessary, in addition to notes on chapters, to make a general summary bibliography with an emphasis on the modern period under study, but also covering past stages.

Perhaps the most serious point is that the book is essentially completely out of touch with the previous stages of the development of Russian Burmese studies (neither in the form of references, nor in the form of any critical or positive assessments). I found only two references to the Russian Burmanist economists S. M. Makarov (footnote 3, p. 209) and I. P. Azovsky (footnote 256, p.220). Finally, nowhere in the book (in any context) is V. F. Vasiliev, one of the founders of Soviet Burmese studies, who for many years headed the historical and political direction in the study of Burma, mentioned. I believe that with a full bibliography, such annoying mistakes could have been avoided.

These comments do not reduce the overall positive impression of the work, which is innovative in nature, characterized by high professionalism and erudition of the author. A. A. Simonii's monograph makes a serious contribution to scientific Oriental studies. It is not surprising that written vividly and emotionally, while maintaining a fundamental scientific and research character, the book of A. A. Simonia will arouse interest and attract the attention of not only specialists in Oriental studies, but also a wide range of readers.

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