Not so long ago, a significant event occurred in the waters adjacent to the Japanese island of Okinawa. During the maneuvers of the American carrier group, about five kilometers away, the Chinese submarine ¹ surfaced. Its ostentatious surfacing dangerously close to American ships was a clear demonstration of the new capabilities of the Chinese navy and further evidence of the real rivalry that is increasingly intensifying in the East Asia and Southeast Asia (SE) region.

The struggle for dominance in Southeast Asia between the United States and the People's Republic of China is gradually escalating. At the same time, if in previous years China showed the greatest activity, then recently the United States has begun to make vigorous efforts not only to stop the growth of Chinese influence, but also to expand its ability to control the situation in the region.

The struggle for dominance in Southeast Asia is quite understandable, because the region is turning into one of the main centers of global development and economic growth, occupies an important geopolitical position at the junction of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, and is crossed by the most important world trade routes. In addition, the Southeast Asian region's population of more than 500 million forms one of the fastest-growing consumer markets, and natural resources - from oil to tin-cannot but attract major players on the Asian and global stage.

For a long time, the capacious American market and large-scale Japanese investments, coupled with American military power, created a fairly stable situation in which the most developed countries of this region, which formed the ASEAN bloc (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) in 1967, were in the zone of US-Japanese dominance. China, from the point of view of the ruling regimes of these countries, acted as the main opponent, seeking to overthrow the existing regimes in the 1960s and 1970s with the help of local communists, and later, in the 80s, as an aggressive and expansionist force, actively expanding its presence on the Paracel Islands and the Spratly Islands in South Africa."The China Sea. Clashes between the Philippines and China over the Mischief Reefs or the Vietnamese and Chinese over the Paracel Islands, which dramatically intensified the military confrontation in the region, seemed to exclude China from the list of countries that could count on increasing their influence and presence in Southeast Asia.

However, the obvious weakening of the US military potential in Southeast Asia, on the one hand, and the gradual transformation of China into the economic and political leader of the East Asian region, on the other, led to the fact that the balance of forces and interests that had been maintained for many years was disrupted. For some time, it seemed that the United States was extremely sluggish in responding to the new challenges of its influence in Southeast Asia. Today, however, American policy has begun to undergo a major revision, and Washington has dramatically stepped up its actions here.

SCENARIO OF A WAR AT SEA

The emphasis, first of all, was placed on strengthening the American military presence. Four carrier groups and almost 60% of all US nuclear submarine forces are now concentrated in the Pacific Ocean.² From the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific, an additional six submarines are being transferred. If we add to this that in 2005 the transfer of F-15 fighters and B-2 bombers from the continental bases of the US Air Force to Guam, the very base from which B-52 bombers were sent to bomb Vietnam ³ in the 1960s, then the increase in American military potential will be even more noticeable. Today, for the first time since the end of the Vietnam War, such a high concentration of American warships has been achieved in this area. At the same time, Washington does not hide the fact that the reason for demonstrating the US military capabilities was the continuous increase in the power of the Chinese Navy and the influence of this country in Southeast and East Asia.

In a special Pentagon report published in February 2006, the need to build up American forces in the Pacific was justified by "a sense of growing strategic threat from China." ⁴

From this report, it follows that the US administration is seriously considering the possibility that in the foreseeable future Beijing will be able to suddenly disrupt the control systems of American troops in the region and significantly restrict their actions. In this regard, a recent article in the Washington Times newspaper indicates that the build-up of forces in the Pacific is part of a strategy that implies the possibility of defeating China in any military conflict of any kind.⁵

One of the scenarios of a Chinese attack being considered at the Pentagon is predicted as follows: China forces-

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The Japanese Navy and Air Force conduct instant amphibious operations to capture Taiwan, the adjacent small Japanese islands in the Okinawa zone, strategically important territories in the South China Sea, along the main transport route from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean. After that, the United States will be faced with the fact: either get involved in ground operations fraught with heavy losses and a full-scale war, or at least partially recognize the new reality that will appear after the attacks of the Chinese army.⁶

Based on such assumptions about China's actions, the US command set a course for dense deployment of aircraft carrier formations in the Pacific Basin with their possible access to the Indian Ocean. According to the Americans, such a configuration of the deployment of strike forces "should prevent even the potential threat of negative developments for the United States." ⁷

The process of rearming the Chinese Navy and Air Force has a significant impact on changing the balance of power in Southeast Asia. The Americans are closely following this process, which also forces them to strengthen their forces in the Pacific. In July 2005, a special hearing in the US Congress was devoted to this issue, which noted the rapid development of the Chinese defense industry. Among its successes were the development of a new long-range cruise missile, the commissioning of new warships equipped with the Chinese equivalent of the American IGIS fire control system, and the appearance of a new Yuan-class attack submarine. The US media reported that the Chinese side has developed high-precision weapons, including new air-to-surface missiles and surface-to-surface missiles⁸. All this, together with the influx of modern military equipment from Russia, significantly increases the capabilities of Chinese troops both in the areas around Taiwan, in the South China Sea and in Southeast Asia as a whole.

But it's not just the U.S. military that is sounding the alarm about the shifting balance of power in East and Southeast Asia. The US administration and the authors of the report "China and ASEAN: A Threat to American Supremacy in Southeast Asia"call for a sharp intensification of American policy towards Southeast Asian countries. This report was prepared by the Heritage Foundation, an organization close to the US administration, and published in late 2005.

The document points out that China is rapidly becoming the dominant force in Southeast Asia, and that " the center of gravity of the Asian economy is increasingly shifting from Japan and the United States to China... Chinese diplomacy has effectively translated China's economic growth into political influence, calling into question the traditional role and position of the United States here, threatening relations even with traditional allies and friends."⁹. The report's authors see the only way to turn the tide is for the United States to begin its full-scale return to the region, not only in the military sphere, but also in the economy and politics. They believe that the United States should create its own free trade zone with the ASEAN countries in contrast to China, step up its participation in the APEC organization and in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), and look for any opportunities to strengthen and develop relations with the ASEAN countries.

The document prepared in the bowels of the Heritage Foundation caused a serious resonance in the US administration. Already in July 2006, at the next ASEAN Regional Forum, the United States and its member countries signed a so - called five-year action plan to improve political and economic relations between them. This was followed in August by the US and ASEAN countries signing a trade and investment facilitation agreement and even appointing a special Treasury attache based in Singapore to coordinate trade and financial policies in the region10.

ISN'T IT TOO LATE TO CATCH ON?

Thus, the Americans took the first step towards starting negotiations on the creation of a joint free trade zone with the ASEAN countries. In order to confirm its determination to resist China's expansion, Washington, despite its vigorous-

What the magazine wrote about 40 years ago

For hundreds of years, the East Asian region was known as a citadel of colonialism. In recent years, as in the rest of the world, profound revolutionary changes have taken place here... Lenin's prophecy that the masses of the colonial world will inevitably rise up as "independent participants, as creators of a new life"is coming true.

These changes are causing panic, especially among the US imperialist circles, which in recent years have significantly intensified their policy of "big bludgeon" and "dollar diplomacy" in this part of the world...

A number of influential White House and State Department advisers strongly recommended that the burden of American policy in Asia be shifted to the "social sphere" without weakening the "war effort." It is in this context that the strengthening of US-Japanese relations, the creation of the Asian Development Bank, the proclamation of the "Johnson Doctrine" and preparations for the creation of the so-called "Pacific NATO"should be considered.

V. Vorontsov. Washington's Inter-Asian Alliance (Asia and Africa Today, 1967, No. 3)

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China has resumed arms shipments to Taiwan, which is expected to receive new submarines and aircraft after a long hiatus.

Analyzing today the actions of the United States, which, no doubt, are caused by the growing influence of China, one cannot pass by the question of whether the Americans realized it too late, whether they will be able to reverse the military-political and economic processes in the region, which are clearly going in an undesirable direction for them. Despite the fact that the volume of trade turnover between the United States and ASEAN countries is approximately 150 billion rubles. Despite the fact that the United States is the largest buyer of goods produced in these countries, Washington's relations with the ASEAN countries have developed slowly and difficult in recent decades. They have always been driven by various kinds of political demands, especially in connection with the American desire to force the ASEAN countries to toughen their positions on the repressive policies of the regime in Myanmar or to increase their efforts in the fight against international terrorism.

In addition, the ideological component of American politics turned out to be completely alien to the ruling elites of most of the ASEAN countries, who began to almost openly declare their disagreement with the US foreign policy, especially after the invasion of Iraq by their troops.

Against the background of stagnation and even a certain regression in relations between ASEAN and the United States, cooperation between the ASEAN countries and China developed very rapidly. China has taken excellent advantage of the cooling of relations between the ASEAN countries and the United States and the growth of Asian nationalism, which acts as outright anti-Americanism and anti-Westernism. In addition, amid the rapid economic growth of the Chinese economy, the ruling elites of many ASEAN countries saw China as the locomotive of the Asian economy, and in the vast Chinese market-a real competitor to the American market. At the same time, unlike the United States, China did not put forward any political conditions for the development of cooperation, but rather went to fulfill the ASEAN requirements such as joining the 1976 treaty on security in Southeast Asia or the treaty on rules of conduct for resolving disputes regarding the division of shelf zones in the South China Sea. All this has played an important role in promoting China to the Southeast Asian countries.

Today, it is enough to list just a few events of 2006 to see the true scope of China's expansion in Southeast Asia.

In the economic sphere, the formation of a free trade zone between China and ASEAN is underway. Since January 2005, it has been implementing a program for mutual reduction of customs duties, designed for almost ten years. At the same time, the trade turnover between China and the ASEAN countries continues to grow rapidly. In 2005 it reached $ 130 billion, an increase of 23% compared to 2004 and 16 times compared to 1991.In 2006, this trade turnover increased by another 22% in the first half of the year alone. ¹¹ China now accounts for more than 11% of the total foreign trade of the ASEAN countries (in the early 1990s it was less than 2%). The growth of trade turnover is also spurred by the mutual growth of investment, especially by the ASEAN countries in China. Thus, as of 2005, the ASEAN member countries had invested about $ 38 billion. More than 30 thousand projects are being implemented in China ¹². An analysis of investments from ASEAN countries shows that these are mainly medium - and small-scale investment projects involving a huge number of medium-and small-scale firms that create and constantly expand the field of cooperation between China and ASEAN countries. For example, at the third China-ASEAN Trade Fair, which was held in October 2006 in Nanning (Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region), more than 7,000 people were represented. cooperation and investment projects ¹³.

Economic cooperation is based on the foundation of political relations, which are based on the annual high-level meetings of the leaders of China and ASEAN countries, where key issues and problems are resolved. Today, political approaches in China - ASEAN relations are characterized by a common desire for compromise in solving major problems. An example of this is the agreement signed in 2005 between China, the Philippines and Vietnam on joint oceanological and seismic research in the South China Sea. This agreement is all the more important because the Philippines and Vietnam are precisely the countries with which China has had particularly tense relations regarding the borders in the South China Sea. In 1988, relations with Vietnam and in 1995 with the Philippines teetered on the verge of sliding into military conflict.

China's role and political weight also grew significantly after the creation of a new regional organization in December 2005, the East Asia Summits, in which the United States did not have a place and where Beijing undoubtedly acts as the most influential force. At the same time, the role and importance of APEC, where the Americans set the tone, has significantly decreased, and this organization is no longer the main place for discussing key issues in the region. In addition to the East Asian summits, Beijing is developing another regional organization , the so-called ARF Security Conference, which, according to the Americans, is part of a strategy to dominate the region.

Cooperation between China and the ASEAN countries is developing not only at the level of political leadership, but is also characterized by China's desire to make it as broad as possible, so that it covers almost all significant social groups in the ASEAN countries. For example, in September 2006, the so-called Beijing Declaration on Cooperation between Chinese and ASEAN Youth was adopted at the meeting of the Chinese and ASEAN Youth Ministers in Beijing.

CARROT AND STICK POLICY

If you add to the political also the growing military cooperation, in which more and more officers of the armies of ASEAN countries learn Chinese, receive internships in the best units

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If the PLA conducts joint maneuvers, then the idea of the scale of Chinese penetration into the region will be even more impressive.

The way China conducts its policy today can be seen in the development of relations with Singapore , the main US ally in the region. On the one hand, Beijing is dramatically intensifying scientific and cultural exchanges with Singapore, placing a clear emphasis on common Chinese cultural symbols and national interests, which should be taken into account by the Singapore government. In 2006, for example, an important agreement was signed on scientific and cultural exchanges and cooperation in the field of information exchange. Beijing also makes very attractive proposals to the Singapore authorities, for example, to resume negotiations on the creation of a free trade zone between the two countries. Given that Singapore is the largest investor in the Chinese economy in ASEAN, and bilateral trade is growing generally even faster than with other ASEAN countries,the Singapore authorities cannot refuse such an offer. But at the same time, Beijing is also putting pressure on Singapore to lower the level of official relations with Taiwan and get Singapore to fully support the idea of a united China. In other words, the Chinese authorities are quite successful in using the carrot and stick policy in the region, and with further integration into the region, the effectiveness of such a policy will increase immeasurably.

Just as important for China as political and economic progress is the creation of an atmosphere of trust in it on the part of political elites and the general public in the ASEAN countries. The foundation for this was laid during the 1997-1998 financial crisis, when China refused to devalue the yuan and even provided significant financial assistance to the most affected Southeast Asian countries. Beijing now understands that strengthening the atmosphere of mutual trust is possible only on the basis of a long-term policy of reconciliation and equal cooperation. Therefore, China does its best to show that it is (a) an Asian country that speaks on equal terms with its Asian partners; (b) understands the problems of the Southeast Asian countries better than the West and is ready to help them in many ways selflessly in case of unforeseen problems; (c) both culturally and mentally, China and the countries of the world Southeast Asian countries represent a common world of Asian values that are opposed to Europe, the United States and the West in general.

Beijing is succeeding in implementing this policy, as confidence in China is gradually growing in the region against the background of increasing distrust of the United States. The fact is that Washington's unwillingness to take into account other people's interests, straightforwardness and dictates cannot strengthen confidence in the United States both in the main Muslim countries of the region and in other states where, according to sociological research, the majority of the population considers China as a friend and ally. (In Thailand, for example, 76% of respondents called China a friendly state, while only 9% called the United States a friendly state. ¹⁴)

Thus, great efforts are required from the Americans to stop the Chinese express train going at full speed, to resist the Chinese challenge, and not only in the East Asian, but also in the global aspect.

Now there is evidence that Washington is probing the possibility of recreating a large naval and air base in the Philippines, such as the once thriving Subic Bay and Clark Field. However, negotiations on this issue are proceeding sluggishly, because Philippine public opinion, especially in light of the recently concluded agreement with China on joint exploration of the South China Sea shelf, strongly opposes any American bases on its territory. The real attitude to US military plans in the region can also be judged by the actions of Malaysia and Indonesia, which for several years blocked Washington's proposal to jointly patrol the Strait of Malacca, a key point on the transport route to Asia. At the same time, their position was approved by other ASEAN countries. Only after the Americans agreed that patrolling should be carried out by a multinational force involving not only American, but also Japanese, Australian forces, as well as ships from Thailand and Singapore, did Malaysia and Indonesia agree to this option of protecting shipping from pirates.¹⁵

* * *

As you can see, the competition between opposing sides in the struggle for influence in Southeast Asia now covers almost all areas-from military confrontation to economic relations. At the same time, the parties undoubtedly place different accents in their policies. The United States relies more on traditional methods - strengthening its military presence and, to a lesser extent, developing multilateral economic, political and cultural ties. China currently pays less attention to the military component and more to economic penetration and integration, as well as political and ethno-cultural contacts.

It follows from all of the above that, just as in the second half of the 20th century during the Vietnam War, Southeast Asia is once again coming to the forefront of world politics as one of the centers of the developing geopolitical struggle. It is here that the process of a new geopolitical division of the world, a new confrontation between the great powers of the XXI century, is being outlined today.

¹ International Herald Tribune, 08. 04. 2007.

² Associated Press, 27. 02. 2006.

³ Ibidem.

⁴ Quadrennal Defense Review Report, February 6 2007 - www.defenselink.mil/qdr/report2006.

⁵ The Washington Times, 11. 04. 2007.

⁶ www.centrazia.ru.news

⁷ Ibidem.

⁸ Lenta.ru, 15 .02. 2006.

^{Diana R. Dillon and John J. Tkacik.} 9 China and ASEAN: Endangered American Primacy in Southeast Asia. Washington, 19. 10. 2005.

¹⁰ The Straits Times, 11. 08. 2006, 26. 08. 2006.

¹¹ People's Daily Online, 25.10.2006.

¹² Xinhua, 21. 09. 2006.

¹³ People's Daily Online, 19.10.2006.

¹⁴ Iomiuri, 16.11.2003.

¹⁵ ITAR-TASS, 14. 09. 2006.

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