Human Settlement on the Moon: Plans, Schedules, and Major Challenges

In 2026, humanity stands on the brink of an event that has been dreamed of for decades — a permanent colony on the Moon. Space powers around the world have moved from talk to concrete plans. The United States has officially approved a budget of 20 billion dollars for the construction of a livable base. Russia, together with China, is scanning the lunar surface in search of the perfect location for its station. And Elon Musk promises an autonomous city on Earth's satellite in just 10 years. When exactly will people start living on the Moon, what will their lifestyle look like, and what challenges will the first settlers face — we analyze this material.

NASA Plan: From Temporary Missions to Permanent Presence

In March 2026, new NASA leadership under Jared Isaacman brought a revolution to the American lunar program. The agency abandoned the idea of the Lunar Gateway orbital station and focused all resources on building a base directly on the lunar surface. The strategy is called "return to stay forever."

According to the official plan, construction will proceed in three stages.

First phase (2026–2028 years). NASA organizes 21 robotic mission that will deliver about 4,000 kilograms of cargo to the Moon. At this stage, technologies for landing and deploying equipment will be tested, and the exact location for the future base will be chosen.

Second phase (2029–2032 years). 24 landings are planned with the delivery of 60,000 kilograms of cargo. At this stage, the construction of the first semi-living modules will begin, which will allow astronauts to stay on the surface for a long time.

Third phase (from 2033). The base will become fully inhabited. 28 heavy missions will deliver equipment for permanent residence and regular rotation of crews. By the end of this phase, there should be nuclear and solar energy systems, inhabited and cargo rovers, as well as a communication system similar to a terrestrial mobile network, and lunar GPS.

The first astronaut landing is scheduled for 2028 as part of the Artemis IV mission. And the first permanent home for NASA astronauts is promised to be built by 2033.

Russia and China: Joint Station and Site Selection

Russia and China do not intend to lag behind. The project of the International Scientific Lunar Station is actively developing. In April 2026, the head of Roscosmos Dmitry Rogozin confirmed that the Russian Academy of Sciences approved the concept of creating a Russian segment of the station.

In 2026, Russia began developing instruments for studying the internal structure of the Moon. The goal is to scan the satellite for the selection of the optimal landing area and the placement of the future base.

Interestingly, in the project not only two superpowers are involved, but also 13 other countries in the world. This creates an alternative center of power in the new lunar race and counters the American project.

Russian scientists are already working on a lunar program until 2036 and are considering the possibility of extending the planning horizon to 2060. This speaks of the seriousness of intentions.

The South Pole of the Moon — the Main Construction Site

Both NASA and the Russian-Chinese coalition consider the southern pole of the Moon to be the priority location for the base. Why is this seemingly inconvenient region chosen?

Firstly, craters at the southern pole are in permanent shadow, and it is believed that there are deposits of water ice in them. Ice is a potential source of drinking water, oxygen, and hydrogen fuel for rockets.

Secondly, some areas of the southern pole are almost constantly illuminated by the Sun, which is ideal for powering solar panels and maintaining stable temperatures in inhabited modules.

In 2026, an intensive surface survey began with the help of orbital vehicles to choose an exact location. NASA plans to conduct mass landings of robotic missions in different potential zones before making a final decision.

The Problem of Autonomous Life Support

Elon Musk, the head of SpaceX, said that his company is capable of building a fully autonomous city on the Moon in the next 10 years, and a Martian settlement can appear in 20 years. However, Russian scientists are skeptical about such deadlines.

Russian specialists remind of the experiments on creating closed ecosystems. The most extensive one was the American Biosphere-2 (1991–1993), where an eight-person crew lived in isolation for about two years on an area of 1.5 hectares. The Chinese project Lunar Palace-365 also proved that it is impossible to fully close the system for food: the main part of the protein diet still has to be delivered from outside.

According to calculations, it takes from 28 to 50 square meters of growing area to provide one person with plant food and vitamins. These are massive volumes that are incomparable with those available in modern spacecraft and modules.

In addition, settlers will have to face cosmic radiation, which is 200 times higher on the Moon than on Earth. Musk proposes to use natural lava caves for protection. In them, modules of the base can indeed be located, and the radiation background will be significantly lower than on the surface. But this is only part of the problem.

Russian experts note that for survival beyond Earth, an artificial ecological system adapted to local conditions is needed, and this is a technology that still needs to be created.

Betting on Private Business

The key difference between the new lunar race and the 1960s race is the active participation of private companies. NASA is betting on the CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) program, under which robotic missions are carried out by private contractors.

In 2025, two private landings were made on the Moon, and up to four missions are planned for 2026. NASA expects that by the end of the first phase (2028), the frequency will reach 10 missions per year, and by the mid-2030s — 7–9 heavy missions per year.

SpaceX under Elon Musk and Blue Origin under Jeff Bezos are developing landing modules for the delivery of astronauts. NASA has announced that it will choose the module that is ready first — time is of the essence, as Americans want to overtake the Chinese.

Parallelly, NASA has announced the development of the Space Reactor-1 Freedom nuclear tug, which will be sent to Mars no later than 2028. This is a demonstration of technologies that will then be useful for long-distance lunar missions.

The Race Against Time: Why 2028 is a Milestone

The head of NASA, Jared Isaacman, does not hide that time is running out. Success or failure will be measured in months, not years.

China plans to land its astronauts by 2030. If Americans delay the landing from 2028 to a later date, they may lose the lead. Therefore, NASA has revised its plans and abandoned the intermediate orbital station Lunar Gateway, which would have been an intermediate link but would have delayed deadlines.

In the coming years, we will see a peak of activity: testing landing modules, launching dozens of robotic missions, and finally, returning humans to the lunar surface for the first time since Apollo 17 more than 50 years ago. By the mid-2030s, the first permanently inhabited post of humanity may appear on the Moon.

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