On April 25, 2012, the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences hosted a regular inter-institute scientific conference on the development of Southeast Asia and the South Caucasus. It was attended by employees of academic institutes, higher educational institutions of Moscow, employees of practical organizations. The presentations were divided into three blocks: the first - general reports, the second-regional issues, and the third - issues of politics, economy, and culture of individual Southeast and South-Eastern countries.

The main general presentations were made by the head of the Center for Southeast Asia and South-Eastern Studies D. V. Mosyakov, S. A. Bylinyak (IB RAS), V. F. Terekhov (RISI).

Dmitry Mosyakov's report "Aggravation of the situation in the South China Sea and Russia 2011-2012" was devoted to the study of modern aspects of China's foreign policy in Southeast Asia. The sharp aggravation of the situation in the South China Sea in 2011-2012 put the region in front of the reality of a serious military conflict. In its epicenter, there are clashes on the verge of armed confrontation between Vietnam, China and the Philippines. China has declared sovereignty over about 80% of the entire South China Sea, creating a stalemate in resolving territorial disputes. After the Philippine-Chinese clash at Scarborough Reef (April 2012), the confrontation in the South China Sea moved to a new, more dangerous level, as Manila was supported by Washington. It is obvious that the United States is increasingly drawn into the conflict on the side of the Southeast Asian countries, which generally welcome this. Thus, the interest in trade with China and Chinese investment was not enough to minimize the anti-Chinese sentiment in the region. In the context of instability and dangerous confrontation in Southeast Asia, especially in the South China Sea, Russia, whose oil and gas producers are increasingly involved in the exploitation of oil - bearing areas of the South China Sea, finds itself in a difficult situation. The special relationship of strategic partnership with China forces it to stay on the sidelines and even slow down cooperation with other countries close to it, such as Vietnam. Recently, Beijing has repeatedly pointed out to Russia that its presence in the disputed region is undesirable. These are both veiled attacks on the Russian Federation by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, and quite frank ones from the pages of the People's Daily and other media. Russia is actually being forced to make a choice in the escalating conflict, which is extremely difficult and unpleasant for it. Obviously, if you follow the Chinese warnings, this will jeopardize Russian national interests in Asia and, in a certain sense, subordinate Russia's policy in the East to China's interests. Until now, the Russian leadership has not reacted to Chinese initiatives in any way and tried to pretend that it does not notice Chinese warnings and hidden threats. As planned, Russian warships and the Chinese Navy are participating in the largest naval maneuvers in the Yellow Sea. By this very fact, Russia confirms the preservation of the bonds of strategic partnership. In a certain sense, this is another concession on our part to China, and the question is whether it will be able to correctly assess and accept this concession, having made the necessary conclusions for itself and for our country.

In the report "The debt crisis and its impact on the global economy", S. A. Bylinyak noted that the global economic crisis was not followed by an economic recovery, as many expected. In contrast, in 2011, GDP growth in developed countries was only 1.5-2%, including 0.3-0.4% in Europe. This time, the crisis was caused by the debt problems of some developed European countries. The situation was relatively good in developing countries, which, apparently, have not yet reached the destructive wave.

In the future, the world economy is projected to experience a "great stagnation" similar to the "great depression" of the 1930s.

The debt crisis that broke out in 2011 should be interpreted as a global one, as it affects the financial markets and economies of many countries. The crisis also has a structural basis and means the collapse of the development model followed by many countries based on attracting excessive funds from the global financial market. Europe faces a serious threat of collapse, which would have extremely negative consequences for the entire global economy.

If the crisis develops in a negative scenario, the global commodity markets for both raw materials and finished products should narrow. This can have extremely negative consequences for the countries of Southeast and East Asia (SEEA), many of which adhere to an export-oriented strategy.

V. F. Terekhov's report contains assessments of the military-political situation in Southeast Asia and the waters of the South China Sea, which has become one of the main sources of threat over the past few years to the formation of a system of relations in the Asia-Pacific region (APR) in the group of leading regional players, including the United States, China, Japan and India. Gradually accumulating problems in relations between the first two of them came to the surface in October 2008, when the Bush administration decided to resume sales of American weapons to Taiwan.

To the north of Taiwan are the East China Sea and then the Korean Peninsula, where in the last two years there have been various potentially dangerous conflicts in relations between leading players. To the south and further west of the SCM are the Straits of Malacca and Indian Ocean trade traffic. All these zones form a kind of" arc of instability "that goes around the Asian continent, in turn linking the waters of the Indian and Pacific Oceans into a single whole, defining the geographical space of the political category"Asia-Pacific region". Taiwan and the South China Sea are at the center of this " arc " not only geographically, but also in terms of the level of threats to relative stability in the region as a whole.

The process of deterioration of the political situation in the Asia-Pacific region affects all aspects of relations between the leading players (not only the military-political sphere, but also the economy), i.e. it becomes complex and, apparently, irreversible. Due to the exceptional importance of the problem of controlling hydrocarbon production areas (in the Persian Gulf and Africa), as well as their transportation routes running through the Indian Ocean, the Strait of Malacca, and the South China Sea, as in the early 20th century, special attention is paid to the control of "Sea Lines of Communication" (SLOC).

Since the second half of the last decade, the first attempts have been made to form quasi-union relations in the "USA-India-Japan" triangle with the participation of Australia and other countries in the region that are allied with the United States. In this regard, the thesis on the need to "...strengthen security and defense (the United States and Japan) in a trilateral format...", recorded in the "Joint Statement" of the US-Japan "2+2 committee" (June 2011), is noteworthy.

This thesis was further developed during the talks between the Foreign Ministers of Japan, K. Gamba, and India, S. M. Krishna, in Tokyo at the end of October 2011. The parties agreed to facilitate the creation of the "committee 2+2+2" as part of the Foreign and Defense Ministers of the United States, Japan and India.

In the strategic triangle "USA-China-Japan", which determines the development of the situation in the Asia-Pacific region, there is a synchronicity of deterioration of relations in its "China-Japan" and "China-USA" sides, along with the strengthening of the "USA-Japan"side. This raises the question of the place of the Southeast Asian countries in the processes developing in the Asia-Pacific region. The events of recent years show that the Southeast Asian countries (like Taiwan) are more likely to act as objects of struggle of its main participants in the new regional game. This does not mean that they (individually and together) are devoid of any subjectivity. But ASEAN's claim to be the "core of integration processes" in the Asia-Pacific region is clearly overstated. They are loosely tied to the regional realities that are being created by players who have resources that are not comparable to what ASEAN can put on the regional gaming table. The success of a key American project in recent years to form the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could be a major blow to the integrity of ASEAN. Despite X's statements. Clinton spoke about the potential openness of the TPP to China, and its anti-Chinese orientation is not in doubt.

As for Russia, it is clearly poorly involved in the economic processes taking place in the Asia-Pacific region due to its underdevelopment (the key factor in this case). It is the main obstacle to increasing the weight of the Russian Federation in regional affairs. Finally, it should be noted that the current military-political situation in the Asia-Pacific Region creates a negative background for the upcoming APEC summit, which is scheduled to be held in Vladivostok this fall.

The second block of speeches devoted to regional problems was opened by A. P. Muranova's report " Tax incentives for private businesses in the underdeveloped region-

Southeast Asian Region (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar)". It referred to the legislatively adopted tax benefits that contribute to the expansion of investment activities of private entrepreneurs, primarily foreign ones, actively attracted by the governments of these states. Among the tax privileges granted are tax holidays (i.e. full exemption from income tax for a certain period), reduced income tax rates, exemption from dividend tax, exemption from customs duties on the import of production machinery, equipment and raw materials, and exemption from export duties on the export of manufactured products. in the country of production. Special fiscal exemptions are introduced in special economic zones. Among the countries under consideration, the most liberal regime is established in Cambodia.

S. E. Pale's report "The Dark Side of the Chinese Presence in Oceania" examines the process of strengthening the position of a new regional player in the South Pacific region-China, which became possible after the global economic crisis of 2008, which resulted in a decrease in funding for Oceania countries by" traditional " donors Australia, the United States, France and Japan.

It is concluded that today the main trend in the South Pacific region is the development of new international relations based on generous subsidies to the islands from China. Former regional players Australia, the United States, France and Japan, which have weakened their presence in Oceania due to the economic downturn, are no longer able to dictate their terms in the South. Today, China is coming to the fore, a state that has successfully seized financial levers of influence on the economic and political courses of Oceania countries. A negative aspect of China's expanding influence in the region is political instability, the rapid development of the underground economy, and a multi-fold increase in the crime rate on the islands.

The topic of N. B. Lebedeva's report (IB RAS) is "Features of India-ASEAN relations in the second phase of the" Look East Policy "and a new geostrategic configuration in the Asia-Pacific region". It analyzes the specifics of India-ASEAN interaction in the second phase of the Indian course "Look East" - deepening strategic relations at the bilateral and multilateral levels; emphasis on naval relations due to the specifics of the region at the junction of two oceans and Delhi's desire to lay the foundation for advancing to the South China Sea and further to the Asia-Pacific region.

In connection with the adoption by Washington in 2011-2012 of the new strategy "America's Pacific Century", in the format of which Southeast Asia is assigned the role of one of the most important mechanisms in its implementation, we can expect an increase in demand for the specifics of Indian-Asean military relations and the importance of India's political course not only as a strategic partner of the United States, but also as a growing key player in the new geostrategic configuration.

The report of E. V. Koldunova(MGIMO University of the Russian Foreign Ministry) examines the transformation of the regional structure of the Asia-Pacific region and the role of ASEAN. Recent events in the Asia-Pacific region indicate the emergence of new features of the regional political and economic structure. Among them are the trend towards closer financial and economic cooperation in the ASEAN+3 format, the institutionalization of cooperation between China, Japan and South Korea in isolation from the ASEAN dialogue format, a more stable presence of Russia in the region, as well as the super-active position taken by the US administration, against the background of the continuing progressive growth of China's economic influence in the region. In this situation, the main question is how the situation will develop in East Asia and the Asia-Pacific region, what will be the reaction of ASEAN to the changes that are taking place, and whether the Association will be able to maintain its "central" position in regional cooperation mechanisms.

The third block "Country problems" was opened by A. Drugov's speech "Indonesia: aggravation of internal struggle". Disunity and groupism in the country's political elite deepened in anticipation of parliamentary and presidential elections in 2014. Attacks on the presidential Party of Democrats and the head of state have intensified. Combined with the narrowness of President S. B. Yudhoyono's own political base, this creates a lack of efficiency in the executive branch. One of the consequences is the undermining of the authority of the authorities in the eyes of the population and, as an alternative, the strengthening of Islamist influence in the lower ranks at the level of mosques and Muslim boarding schools, which are not always controlled by a relatively tolerant Muslim elite. Separatism is also growing, particularly in Papua.

The report touched upon foreign policy issues related to Indonesia's role in ASEAN, its relations with Russia, China, the United States, and South Korea.

In the report by G. V. Suchkoea (IB RAS) " Islamic extremism at the junction of the XX and XXI centuries: Structure, goals and ideological background of Jemaah Islamiyah's activities" examines issues related to the resignation of President Suharto and the fall of the New Order regime in 1998, which led to the disruption of the current political status quo in Indonesia. Law enforcement agencies, which had previously burned out any manifestations of freethinking with a red-hot iron, loosened their grip, as a result of which the situation with ensuring the safety of the population worsened somewhat. Many people, including the radical ones, saw a chance for themselves to change the situation. Some of them were at the origins of Jemaah Islamiyah, which was formed in the 1990s and became the core of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The speaker focused on various aspects of the Jemaah Islamiyah's activities, the specifics of its structural organization, financial support, as well as the authorities ' opposition to it.

E. A. Fomicheva (IB RAS) reviewed the new phase of development of the political situation in Thailand after the July 3, 2011 elections. general parliamentary elections. The victory was won by the Phya Thai party, which won 265 seats in parliament out of 500. Its main political rival, the Democratic Party, has only 159 seats. Analyzing the balance of power in the political arena, where there is an intense struggle between the old and new elites, the speaker comes to the conclusion that over the past decade there has been a steady trend. As a result of the democratic process, Thaksin Chinnawat's supporters ' parties are winning the election. The coalition government formed by Thaksin's sister Yingluck Chinnawat, leader of the Phya Thai Party, has declared national reconciliation to be the basis of its domestic policy. The opposing political forces put different meanings into this concept. The army is still neutral. The yellow shirt movement is losing energy, while the red shirts have a charismatic leader, Thaksin, who, while abroad, does not lose touch with his supporters. The movement remains organizationally and financially strong.

A. A. Simonia (IB RAS) summed up the results of the first year of Thein Sein's civil rule in Myanmar. Over the past year, radical changes have taken place in the country, which has helped to improve the image of the country and its leadership in the international arena. Myanmar's new leadership has met almost all the Western demands for lifting sanctions - a dialogue with the opposition has been established, hundreds of political prisoners have been released, and a ceasefire agreement has been signed with the Karen National Union. By-elections to parliament were held, which resulted in opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her associates taking 43 seats in the legislative assembly. In conclusion, Simonia noted that the tasks facing President Thein Sein for his five-year term are to achieve full legitimacy of the country's leadership and lift Western economic sanctions, return Myanmar to an equal position in the world community, preserve the results of privatization, eliminate the threat of the "Arab spring" in their country and avoid international investigations into the activities of the former military junta in Myanmar, - successfully implemented.

In her report, N. N. Bektimirova (MSU ISAA) reviewed new trends in Cambodia's political development. In 2011-2012, Cambodia maintained a model of dominant party rule within a formally pluralistic political system. All three branches of government were headed by representatives of the Cambodian People's Party. However, the systemic opposition represented by the Sam Rainsy Party took serious steps to turn it into a real political force. The AKP's apparent success in this direction is evidenced by the results of the January 2012 Senate elections. Within the NPC itself, the position of its General Secretary, Chea Sim, has somewhat weakened due to corruption scandals in his inner circle. At the same time, the position of the Hong Sen family clan has strengthened, due to the appointment of his two sons to high administrative positions.

The political life of the country was marked by the growth of protest movements, both organized (with the participation of trade unions) and spontaneous peasant demonstrations. The reason is the illegal seizure of their land. Some reduction in Cambodia's dependence on Western economic assistance has led to a certain complication in the activities of human rights NGOs.

In the report of G. F. Murasheva (IB RAS) "The situation in the South China Sea: China's position, Vietnam's position", the general situation in the South China Sea is called a dead end. No prospects for

The settlement of the territorial dispute over the ownership of the Spratly and Paracel Islands and archipelagos is not visible in the foreseeable future.

From the speaker's point of view, China's position in the South China Sea is determined by the overall strategy of the Chinese leadership - to bring the country's geopolitical position in line with its phenomenally increased economic power in recent years, which implies expanding the territories and spheres of influence of the emerging superpower. China's policy in the South China Sea is only part of this strategic project, the main element of which is the confrontation with the United States, China's only serious rival in the global plan.

As for Vietnam's position, the speaker believes that despite the firm and creative model of Vietnam's policy, it has no chance of resolving the dispute over sovereignty over the Spratly and Paracel Islands in its favor. Especially in the absence of allies and the solidarity position of ASEAN, some members of which are themselves participants in the dispute.

In his speech, A. A. Sokolov (IB RAS) noted that in 2012 Vietnam increased attention to events of national significance. The state encourages the creation of works of art that develop a patriotic theme in literature, cinema, theater, and visual arts. Three conferences were held with the participation of young prose writers and poets of the country, where topical issues of the development of modern literature were discussed. Nguyen Ti Trung, a well-known novelist, was awarded the prestigious Southeast Asian Prize for his novel "The Cry of the Ut Girl", which focuses on the military events in Central Vietnam in the second half of the 1950s. Nevertheless, the main trend in the spiritual life of Vietnamese people remains mass culture, focused mainly on young people.

Vietnam has managed to expand its presence on the UN World Cultural Heritage List. To the already existing six similar objects in the country, the citadel of the Ho Dynasty, built in the late XIV-early XV centuries, was added. This cultural and historical monument is 150 km from Hanoi. From the 16th to the 18th centuries, it was the political, economic, and cultural center of North Vietnam. The citadel system includes stone walls, an external defensive wall, and an altar - a place for performing ceremonies in honor of the Heavenly Lord.

In order to attract foreign tourists to the country, the Government of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam has organized a number of large-scale events. In 2011, Vietnam was visited by 6 million tourists.

Yu. O. Levtonova (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences) spoke about the attempts of the administration of B. Aquino decided to solve the problem of the radical opposition, whose activities complicate the implementation of the government's reform program. The most serious challenge to stability comes from the Muslim separatist movement in the south of the country. In the spring of 2011, negotiations between the Government and the leadership of the separatist organization Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) were resumed (with the mediation of Malaysia). But negotiations have been difficult, punctuated by violent clashes between separatists and government forces. So far, there is no reason to talk about a possible positive "breakthrough" in solving this problem. Muslim separatism remains the most long-term destabilizing factor. Another radical movement, the left - wing Insurgency, which has been led by the Maoist Communist Party (KPF) since the 1960s, poses less of a threat to stability, given the small number of participants in the armed struggle (peasants, radical intellectuals) operating in remote mountain areas, and the remoteness of the movement's headquarters (Holland)since the 1990s. In this case, there are more optimistic trends towards neutralization and attenuation of left-wing insurgency. There was information about the possible arrival in the Philippines from the Netherlands of the permanent leader of the Communist Party Jose Ma Sison (Amado Guerrero).

V. F. Urlyapov (IB RAS) spoke about the aggravation of the political situation in Malaysia, which was evidenced by the mass demonstration in Kuala Lumpur on April 28 this year. It was initiated by the Coalition for Fair and Clean Elections (Bersih), which unites several dozen non-governmental organizations and enjoys the support of the opposition People's Alliance (Pakatan Rakyat). It was the third such action (Bersih 3.0) since November 2007. The second one (Bersih 2.0) took place in early July 2011. The main participants in these demonstrations were the middle urban strata, representatives of all major ethnic groups of the population, and the main means of mobilizing participants in the demonstrations were social networks. The main slogan was a deep reform of the legal framework of the electoral system and elimination of the current practice of its application, which is associated with numerous violations and abuses. At the same time, the protest actions had a purely political meaning.

They were not aimed at the violent overthrow of the existing regime and had nothing to do with the events of the "Arab Spring" associated with bloodshed.

Bersih has effectively become a" third force " in the Malaysian political field, along with the ruling National Front and the opposition People's Alliance. Another notable development was the political awakening of the local Indian community, which had previously been a marginal, oppressed minority.

E. M. Gurevich's report "Singapore 2011" focused on three extremely important events in the country's life.

The next parliamentary elections were held on May 7, 2011. As expected, the People's Action Party (MHP), which has been in power continuously since 1959, won 81 out of 87 seats in the unicameral Parliament. The surprise was the serious success of the opposition, which came out as a united front. The Workers ' Party, the main political opponent of the ruling MHP, won 6 seats in parliament. Immediately after the election, Lee Kuan Yew, one of the brightest and most successful politicians in the Asia-Pacific region of the second half of the 20th century, announced his resignation from the post of minister - mentor.Lee Kuan Yew is a charismatic leader, prone to authoritarian management methods. But over the decades of its "undemocratic" but reasonably pragmatic governance, Singapore has made a rapid breakthrough from the " third "world to the" first." With his departure, a different story for Singapore begins. Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong also left the government. Now Lee Hsien Loong (the newly appointed head of the cabinet), who in the previous four years was hardly free from the influence of two former prime ministers, has the opportunity to more fully express his own, individual style of governing the country.

An equally important event in the country's political life was the general presidential election held on August 27. For the first time, four candidates applied for this post. Former Deputy Prime Minister Tony Tan, 71, won, beating his rival Tan Cheng Bok (head of the maritime transport company) by just 0.3%. Because of the minimal gap, a secondary recount of ballots was required. Despite the fact that Tony Tan and Tan Chen Bok are cadre members of the HDP, whose programs differed little from each other, and received virtually equal numbers of votes, this fact, like the results of the general election, can be recognized as a natural movement towards a more pluralistic society.

In the speech of E. M. Astafieva (Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences) " Singapore. National classification. Pros and cons " summarizes the history and evolution of the unique national classification of the Singaporean population. One of the latest innovations that gives the right to persons of mixed origin to have the so-called"double-barreled nation"is considered. The article analyzes the significance of belonging to a certain national and ethnic group in the process of implementing certain areas of domestic policy in Singapore. The views of both official government sources and the opposition on this issue are presented.

T. P. Miloslavskaya's report "Brunei in the context of regional policy" is devoted to Brunei's participation in the activities of international and regional organizations.

The report by N. S. Skorobogatykh (IB RAS) analyzes the political struggle in Australia on the eve of the 2013 elections. The difficult situation in which the Labor government of J. Gillard found itself since 2010 was aggravated in February 2012 by a new round of power struggles within the ALP. The problems of taxes on large businesses, environmental issues, disputes over the admission of refugees and illegal immigrants, which were actually postponed in 2010, remain unresolved. Therefore, the latest steps of the government, clearly aimed at pre-election struggle, are extremely cautious and almost win-win. In domestic politics, this is Gillard's decision to allocate $ 3.7 billion. to support older Australians. In the external - a statement on the withdrawal of the Australian military from Afghanistan in 2013. Despite the activation of the opposition, Gillard intends to defend the line of her cabinet and defeat political opponents in 2013.

In her speech, Olga Mosolova (Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences) "Basic Principles of Australia's foreign economic Policy" noted that the key goal of Australia's foreign policy is to ensure the country's security and long-term economic prosperity. Australia's efforts to liberalize global trade are being strengthened through regional and bilateral trade agreements. Australia maintains close regional cooperation and plays a key role in regional structures, formation and development

a major regional trade and economic grouping, such as APEC. Australia has committed to strengthening the efforts of the APEC Forum as a means to promote regional economic prosperity and security. The key priorities are to expand regional trade and investment liberalization processes within APEC and promote further structural economic reforms in APEC member countries.

The conference had a lively discussion character, reflecting the diversity of opinions of its participants on internal and external problems of the region. Particular attention was drawn to changes in the geopolitical configuration in the region, relations between Russia and ASEAN, and the confrontation between China and the United States. The issue of the aggravation of the situation in the South China Sea (SCM) and possible options for its development caused controversy.

The conference once again demonstrated the growth of cooperation and strengthening of the community of specialists in this field of Oriental studies.

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