Moscow: Center for Strategic Conjuncture, 2014, 384 p.

Pakistan's economy was not so lucky. If in the first years of independence the country showed quite high rates of growth and modernization and even became a nuclear power, then in recent years Pakistan is perceived as an outsider in the globalized world economy. In the domestic economic literature, Pakistan is also unlucky, with disproportionately little coverage compared to the severity and significance of its economic problems. S. N. Kamenev's monograph corrects the situation and provides the Russian reader with many important facts, observations and generalizations about the economic development of Pakistan.

In the monograph, three lines of presentation can be distinguished. These are the development of the economy over time periods, structural elements of the macroeconomic analysis of the economy: general trends, industry structure, population and labor market, accumulation and consumption, as well as analysis of literature and statistics on Pakistan. The latter topic is very important, because, as mentioned above, there is a shortage of works on the economy of Pakistan in the Russian economic literature, and statistical data on this country often cause controversy among specialists. Finally, the final chapter is devoted to Russian-Pakistani economic cooperation.

The monograph contains a good scientific apparatus in the form of numerous references to data sources, an extensive list of references, and a statistical appendix containing data on Pakistan and international comparisons.

The monograph is devoted to macroeconomic analysis, but contains the chapter "Population and labor market". Strictly speaking, this issue does not apply to macroeconomic analysis, but for Pakistan, ignoring the demographic problem is impossible. On page 189, Table 19 shows data on the dynamics of the population of Pakistan from 1951 to 2013: the growth of the total population from 34 to 184 million people, the growth of the urban population by almost 12 times, and the rural population by more than four times. This is the demographic background against which socio-economic processes in the country developed.

As for the periodization of the economic history of Pakistan, the author actually presents the monograph on two scales. The first one, used in statistical tables, is data on periods, five-and ten-year time intervals. At the same time, the text contains a different periodization according to the periods when certain military and civilian leaders were in power. This is the specific nature of the country: S. N. Kamenev combines statistical periodization with power periodization.

The analysis of economic development rates from 1950 to 2010 shows constant changes in the country's economic growth rate. GNP growth data for ten-year intervals before 2000 and for five-year intervals after can be represented by a sinusoid (see Table 4 on page 74). It is obvious that the second periodization by the time different political figures are in power is very important for macroeconomic analysis.

S. N. Kamenev emphasizes that the ongoing industrialization in Pakistan with its one-sided focus on large-scale industry in conditions of extremely low initial level and deep disintegration of local economic structures sharply increased the imbalance between various industries and groups of industries and spheres of public production and posed many social problems for the country. And if it were not for the expansion of the agricultural sector and the service sector (which were the main absorbers of the surplus and fast-growing population), the reproduction process would be extremely difficult.

The inconsistency of the results of economic development is also emphasized by the fact that with a significant modernization of the Pakistani economy, its exports for a long time consist of cotton goods from raw materials to fabrics and rice, which together account for about 2/3 of export revenue (pp. 180-182). At the same time, the country has a nuclear power industry and dozens of research institutes.

Analyzing the sectoral structure of the economy of Pakistan, S. N. Kamenev emphasizes the importance of agriculture in creating a social product and employment. Growth in the production of major agricultural crops from 1950 to 2010, presented in Table 9 on page 123,

impressive. Wheat yields increased almost 6 times, rice - 8.6 times, cotton-almost 10 times. However, the population grew 5.4 times, so there was no fundamental improvement in the food situation in the country. As S. N. Kamenev notes, the partial nature of the agrarian reform, the resistance of landowners, the lack of financial resources led to uneven development of agricultural production, and the unresolved food problem.

The zigzags of Pakistan's industrial policy are discussed in Section 4.2. Of course, the lack of financial resources that characterizes the entire history of Pakistan's economic development is an important factor, but reading this section suggests that bad governance has played a crucial role in the country's industrialization not reaching the level where the national industry has reached. it becomes a source of economic growth and a means of modernizing the economy and society.

As S. N. Kamenev shows, the unsolved problems of economic development in the country are related to the low share of savings in the country. From the data in Table 25 on page 212, it follows that it reached only 18.2% in 1980, and after that it decreased and in 2010 it was 11.4%. This level is completely insufficient for successful catch-up development.

External aid is becoming a means of supporting the Pakistani economy in the face of weak domestic sources of accumulation, which is analyzed in section 6.2, which shows that external aid consistently accounted for at least a third of all investment under the country's five-year development plans.

The reviewed monograph is primarily a country study, but the world economic aspect is also very important in it. Pakistan as a special case of development is of great interest. As can be assumed from reading S. N. Kamenev's monograph, this country can exist, avoiding catastrophic shocks, only at the expense of foreign aid and the work of its citizens abroad. This is a unique niche in the global economy. Pakistan is also interesting because it is a large country with such a model of development, which has existed in this way for more than 60 years. From the world economic point of view, both the prospects of Pakistan itself are interesting (whether such a model can be sustainable, or whether a change in the model is inevitable; if so, how it will happen), and the prospects, relatively speaking, of the Pakistani model in Africa. There, many countries are developing in a similar way.

An interesting problem is the role of foreign aid in economic development. Will Pakistan be able to solve this problem by increasing the transfer of migrant workers? Will there be aid from Western countries that seek to support Pakistan as an opponent of extremist Islam? Will help come from Islamic states? Will China become a donor to Pakistan? It is obvious that the problems of the Pakistani economy go beyond national borders, and many international players are involved in shaping the fate of Pakistan. For Russia, the development of Pakistan is not only of academic interest, because through Afghanistan, Pakistani problems affect Central Asia, and then Russia. S. N. Kamenev's work is very important for understanding what is happening and how to solve the problems of Pakistan's development.

Separately, I would like to note the author's remark on page 35 that Russian Orientalists (the text deals with Pakistani studies, but the generalization suggests itself) lose a lot due to the fact that they do not publish their works in English. S. N. Kamenev shows that the English-language texts of Russian researchers are recognized by foreign researchers. Writing in English is a useful tip for Russian Orientalists.

The disadvantages of this work include the absence of graphs in the text. When analyzing the dynamics and structure of the economy, as discussed in the book, a well-constructed, relevant graph can convince the reader of more than a few pages of text. A striking example is table 4 on page 74, which shows the average annual growth rate of the main macroeconomic indicators. Their unevenness is much better perceived when presented graphically.

In general, the work turned out to be interesting and informative, at least for non-specialists in Pakistan, such as the reviewer. The author's position is clear and reasonable. The content of the paper goes beyond the scope of macroeconomic analysis, and it turns out to be a fairly comprehensive country study. The historical approach, i.e. the analysis of the periods of economic history of Pakistan, makes the work useful for historians of the country's economy and the world economy.

It seems that the monograph is useful not only for country scientists-Pakistanis, but also for a wide range of specialists in the world economy and international relations, since the socio-economic development of Pakistan is presented in the context of world development.

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