1. Features of building a regional security system in Southeast Asia

A characteristic feature of the current situation in Southeast Asia is the high dynamics of political and economic processes that form a stable trend towards transforming the region into the most important center of world politics and economy. At the same time, the dominant factor that determines the nature of the situation is the orientation of most states towards large-scale economic reforms in the presence of real prerequisites for their implementation and interaction. In addition, the ASEAN countries firmly expressed their desire to fully contribute to the peace, stability and sustainable development of the region.

Such an attitude presupposes the existence of a fairly effective collective security system in the region, and therefore the Association states are actively engaged in building it at the present time. The ASEAN Regional Security Forum (ARF) has been operating since 1994, the treaty on the establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in Southeast Asia was signed in December 1995, and a number of inter-State problems within ASEAN have been successfully resolved (especially in recent years). It should also be noted here that in addition to the listed security problems in Southeast Asia, the main prerequisites that determine the need to strengthen the regional security system can also be attributed to the conditions in which it is created.

First,until recently, ASEAN, as an organization, set itself exclusively the tasks of promoting mutual economic development, and only in the last decade began to take on the solution of political problems. This is primarily due to the increasing role of the Southeast Asian countries in solving international problems, based on the growth of their economic power and, as a result, expanding opportunities for building up military potential.

Secondly, the need to ensure favorable conditions for economic development makes it necessary for the Southeast Asian countries to more effectively defend their economic interests, while providing for the ability to protect them by military force, if necessary. At present, almost all ASEAN States are actively replenishing their arsenals with modern weapons in order to modernize their military capabilities.

Third, the end of the global confrontation between the USA and the USSR radically changed the strategic situation in Southeast Asia. It's hara for her now-

Leonid E. Vasiliev, Senior Researcher, IDV RAS.

page 45

The expansion of China, Japan, South Korea, and even India is likely to increase, which significantly affects the prospects for creating a collective security system in the region.

At the 10th session of the ARF, the main activities of the ASEAN States to create such a system were identified. These include:

- continuation of work on expanding confidence-building measures in Southeast Asia as a basis for the entire process of creating a regional security system;

- practical implementation of the "Concept and Principles of Preventive Diplomacy" adopted at the 9th ARF session;

- compliance by all States of the region with the principles of peaceful settlement of conflicts between them through dialogue and negotiations;

- promotion of the Association's priority tasks and solution of the problem of creating a united front in the fight against international terrorism and international crime in the region;

- fully support the nuclear non-proliferation and arms control regime;

- expanding the cooperation of the ARF with other regional and international organizations;

- Encourage greater participation of experts, especially military officials1, in ARF-sponsored events.

Thus, the task of building an effective structure of regional security in Southeast Asia has recently become increasingly important in the system of international relations in the region. Although it is still a long way from building a structure similar to the collective security system in Europe with its developed and implemented legal mechanisms for limiting military construction, expanding and ensuring confidence-building measures between countries, and ensuring human rights, the ASEAN states have significantly stepped up their efforts to create it.

2. Main aspects of the ARF's activities

The main principles on which the session work of the ASEAN Regional Forum is based include::

- conduct multilateral and bilateral discussions of problems within the ARF on the basis of non-interference in the internal affairs of the participating States;

- making decisions at the forum based on the consensus of all its participants;

- willingness of forum participants to discuss security issues on a multilateral basis;

- the principle of mutual trust;

- fostering dialogue and consultation among forum participants in resolving conflict situations between them;

- openness of information related to solving security problems;

- involvement of national military experts of the participating states in the discussion of regional security issues.

Since 1999, the entire range of issues discussed at the forum sessions can be divided into two main components:: These are problems related to intraregional security in Southeast Asia and problems of international security. Moreover, the first of them is allocated disproportionately more time for discussion, and more specific decisions are made on them than on the second group of problems discussed.

The main problems of intraregional security that were discussed at the forum sessions and most of which were resolved specifically include the following::

page 46

- development of confidence-building measures and principles of preventive diplomacy in the regional security system;

- fight against international terrorism and international crime in the region;

- the consequences of globalization for the national economies of the participating States and the problems of their economic security;

- Establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in Southeast Asia;

- Problems of the Spratly Islands and the development of a"Code of Conduct in the South China Sea".

The development of confidence-building measures between participants and their use in the work of the ARF, followed by the development of the principles of preventive diplomacy, were initially laid down in the main activities of the Association to create a regional security system in Southeast Asia. As part of the creation of such a system, the 8th ARF session (2001) approved the "Register of Experts and Eminent Persons", adopted the document "On strengthening the role of the ARF Chairman", and the 9th session (2002) adopted the "Concept and Principles of Preventive Diplomacy". At the 11th session (2004), the importance of developing a kind of "code of conduct" in Southeast Asia and developing the legal framework for cooperation between the ASEAN States and their ARF partners was emphasized.²

After the events of September 11, 2001 and the actions taken by the United States in this regard, the ASEAN countries significantly increased their attention to the problems of combating international terrorism in the region. In fact, since 2002, these issues have become a priority at ARF sessions. In addition, a number of specific documents were adopted, including the " Declaration on Financial Measures to Counter Terrorism "(9th session, 2002), "Statement on Counterterrorism Cooperation in Border Security" (10th session, 2003), and joint documents were signed with the United States, China, India, and others. Russian Federation on cooperation in the field of security and counter-terrorism. At the initiative of Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, a Regional counterterrorism center was established in Kuala Lumpur.

At the 11th session (2004), it was decided to create a new Forum mechanism - a Conference on security policy, which is designed to become a key one in terms of increasing the role and effectiveness of the ARF's military component. Conferences on this issue with the participation of high-ranking representatives of military departments were held in November 2004 and May 2005.³. At the 12th session of the Forum (2005), the ARF adopted a Statement on the exchange of operational and intelligence information, as well as strengthening the protection of identity documents, which should contribute to improving the effectiveness of anti-terrorist activities of special services.

The priority of problems related to the manifestations of international terrorism in the region is primarily due to the globalization of the world economy, which is accompanied by an increase in property differentiation and social stratification of society in the ASEAN States. At the same time, the complexity of combating such manifestations at the national level, as well as the lack of interstate cooperation and interaction in this area between Southeast Asian countries, as was observed earlier, contributed to the internationalization of this type of crime, their entry into the regional arena and the establishment of close ties with like-minded people operating in other regions of the world.

If we talk about the peculiarities of international terrorism in Southeast Asia, it should be noted that the broadest plans are hatched there and extremely radical ways of implementing them are used. Thus, a number of major terrorist organizations operating in the region, as the main target

page 47

They chose to create a pan-Islamic state in the territories of modern Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. The main terrorist organizations that pursue this goal, first of all, should include "Jamaa al Islamiya" (Indonesia) and the Abu Sayafa Group (Philippines). These organizations are active in terrorist activities, which include repeated, almost annual bombings, the largest of which recently were the explosions on the island of Bali (Indonesia) in 2002 and 2005, in Jakarta in 2003, in various parts of the Philippines in 2002, as well as in murders and kidnappings, in which people were killed and abducted. mostly foreigners.

According to US sources, since the early 1990s, up to 1,500 Indonesians have been sent to study in Egypt, Syria, and Iran every year, and up to 40% of them are lost. It is these people who join the detachments of international terrorists. Young people from Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia have been regularly sent to study in religious schools in Pakistan over the past decades. When they return to their homeland, they join the ranks of adherents of the most reactionary wing of conservative Islam. According to Malaysian analyst Farish Nur, about 300 religious school graduates return to Malaysia every year, and they are the ones who put pressure on the Malay community and several state governments to establish Sharia rule. The creation of Sharia states is part of the program of the country's main opposition party, the Malay Islamic Party (PAS), which is actively increasing the number of its supporters.

In the south of Thailand, there are detachments of Muslim separatists belonging to the United Liberation Organization of Pattani. These groups are seeking the independence of four provinces populated mainly by Muslim Malays, demanding the introduction of Sharia norms in all spheres of life, with the ultimate goal of creating an independent Islamic state.⁴

At the same time, it should be noted that when considering the problems of combating international terrorism in the region, the ASEAN States closely link them with solving the problems of combating international crime, in particular with the problems of piracy, money laundering, arms smuggling, drug and human trafficking. Thus, the importance of the fight against terrorism is somewhat "blurred" in the formulation of the issue in which it is voiced in the West. This is due to the fact that many ASEAN countries have quite a high percentage of the Islamic population, and they react painfully to the attempts of some Western experts and political scientists to directly link international terrorism with Islam. Thus, at the 12th ARF session in July 2005, it was clearly stated that it is not permissible to identify the roots of terrorism with any of the world's religions, ethnic groups or nationalities.⁵

In addition, there are attempts by the ruling elites in some Southeast Asian states to completely destroy or significantly weaken the opposition that opposes them under the guise of fighting terrorism. At the same time, the Islamic opposition in some countries skillfully uses the thesis of some Western politicians "a Muslim means a potential terrorist" to intimidate the population with a new crusade of the West against the Muslim world in order to realize their own interests, which are often far from the ideas of Islam.

However, it should be noted that the processes associated with the globalization of the world economy have an impact not only and not so much on the activities of international terrorist organizations in Southeast Asia, but to some extent they affect the development of the national economies of the ASEAN countries, and, as a result, on solving problems of ensuring economic security. Initial enthusiasm for the sharp increase in foreign investment flows to the region and the benefits it provided

page 48

The Association's involvement in globalization has been replaced by the cold shower of the 1997 financial crisis, as well as the realization that this development promises them less and less dividends in the long run, while multinational corporations operating in their markets, on the contrary, are getting more and more. Therefore, issues related to globalization and ensuring one's own economic security occupy an important place in the work of the ARF and are discussed at almost every session of the ARF.

The main conclusions reached by the ASEAN States in their discussions on these issues can be summarized as follows::

- the processes of globalization are objective and cannot be stopped;

- globalization benefits primarily multinational corporations;

- the Southeast Asian countries should not remain aloof from globalization and make the most effective use of the benefits that it provides them;

- in order to ensure the economic security of national economies, the states of the region should accelerate the processes of economic integration within the Association.

On December 15, 1995, in Bangkok, the ASEAN leaders signed the Southeast Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (NWFZ) Treaty, known as the Bangkog Treaty, which met with the understanding and approval of the international community. The Treaty entered into force in March 1997. It represents a major initiative of the Association in its quest to create a new order in the region. The Agreement has two features that set it apart from other attempts to create a NWFZ. First, it includes the territory, territorial waters, 200-mile special economic zone and continental shelf of each country participating in the Treaty. Secondly, this is the first treaty of its kind, in the Protocol to which the five nuclear Powers undertake to refrain from the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons not only against the countries participating in the Treaty, but also within the zone as a whole.

However, none of these five nuclear-weapon States signed the Protocol of 1 January 1998, despite the ASEAN proposal to add or amend the Treaty before it was opened for signature. The reasons for the refusal were discrepancies in the wording and content of a number of its provisions. They relate to the maritime space of the zone where nuclear-weapon States are subject to restrictions. The latter, especially in the US, are considered too broad and rigid.

However, recently the relevance of this issue has become more and more obvious. This is primarily due to the fact that India and Pakistan have officially announced that they have become nuclear powers, and therefore, naturally, interest in the problems of nuclear security in the region is becoming more acute. In addition, Russia actively supports the Southeast Asian countries in this issue, which is due to the implementation of its national interests here. Speaking at the 10th ARF session in Phnom Penh, the Russian Foreign Minister stated:: "We support the creation of nuclear-weapon-free zones in various parts of the world, including in Southeast Asia. We see them as a real contribution to strengthening the nuclear non-proliferation regime and strengthening regional security. We hope that mutually acceptable solutions will be found that will allow us and other nuclear-weapon States to sign the Protocol to the Treaty on NWFZs in Southeast Asia. In principle, we support the idea of continuing direct consultations between the five countries and ASEAN. " ⁶

page 49

Beijing also supports the idea of a nuclear-free zone in Southeast Asia, as its representatives have repeatedly expressed. Therefore, it is possible that in the near future the process of implementing this problem will receive a new impetus. At least at the 11th ARF session, the importance of resolving this issue as soon as possible was re-emphasized.⁷

One of the" long-standing " problems of the region, which is also actively discussed in the framework of the ARF, is the problem of the Spratly Islands. The concept of "Spratly Islands" includes several hundred islands, islets,atolls, reefs and shallow banks located in the water area of about 250 thousand square kilometers. Most of them until recently, and some of them are still uninhabited. With a maximum exclusive economic zone of 200 nautical miles, more than half of these islands, atolls, and reefs in the Spratly Archipelago fall within the economic zones of the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei. The rest are located in the open part of the South China Sea, in its so-called "blue zone".

Undoubtedly, the clash between the countries involved in the dispute over the Spratly Islands is based primarily on economic interests. Large deposits of oil and natural gas are expected in this area. According to various estimates, oil reserves here can range from 2 to 225 billion tons. 8. Sea routes also pass through here, which account for up to 50% of the world's cargo turnover by sea. Therefore, these islands may also be of military and strategic importance. Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam are taking part in the dispute over the Spratly Islands. Taiwan also expresses its interest in the islands.

At the 6th ARF session in August 1999, following the escalation of the situation in the South China Sea region and the subsequent freezing of the conflict, the ASEAN member States considered it appropriate to adopt a code of conduct in the region. To this end, the Philippines, on behalf of ASEAN, submitted a draft of such a document, and in October of the same year, China issued its own version. Both drafts were submitted for consideration at the ASEAN-China meeting held in Manila in November 1999, but neither was adopted. Its discussion continued in all subsequent forums without exception, but did not bring results, although the parties constantly declared their desire to resolve the problem. Moreover, this state of" helplessness " is recorded in recent regional documents. Thus, in the Declaration on Cooperation in Combating Piracy and Other Threats to Maritime Security, adopted by the Southeast Asian States at the 10th ARF session in 2003., paragraph 11 states: "Nothing in this declaration, or any action or activity carried out in accordance with it, should prejudice the position of the ARF countries regarding unresolved disputes over sovereignty and other territorial rights." ⁹

However, currently there are positive trends in solving this problem. Thus, the statement of the 12th ARF session noted that the ASEAN States welcome the emergence of progress in the negotiations between ASEAN and China on the Spratly Islands, as well as in the development of a joint Declaration of Conduct in the South China Sea.¹⁰

At the ARF sessions, especially in recent years, along with intraregional problems, issues related to solving international security problems have increasingly been voiced. This is primarily due to the increased economic power of ASEAN, as well as the increased participation in forums of such states as the United States, China, Russia and others. Thus, while the 6th, 7th and 8th sessions of the ARF discussed mainly the Korean problem along with the problems of East Timor, Myanmar, and the Fiji Islands, the last sessions of 2002-2005 included issues related to the Indo-Pakistani conflict, the events in Afghanistan and Iraq. the situation in the Middle East-

page 50

ke and in Iran. Two features of the discussion of international events in forums should be noted here.

First. When considering any problems of international security, the need to ensure the primary role of the United Nations in their resolution is constantly emphasized, as well as the readiness of the ASEAN States to contribute to this in every possible way.

Second. While when discussing intraregional issues, the Association countries find concrete solutions acceptable to all, when considering international aspects of security, due to differences in the views and approaches of the participating States, almost no common solution was found for ASEAN.

The Association States, in particular, were unable to formulate a clear collective position in connection with the events around Iraq. They limited themselves to general statements, from which it is difficult to draw an unambiguous conclusion about the real mood in the ruling circles of these countries. The" vagueness "of the ASEAN position on this issue allowed Washington not only to interpret this fact in its favor, but also to enroll some countries of the association, primarily the Philippines and Singapore, in the number of members of the"anti-Saddam coalition".

At the same time, former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad bluntly stated that the future of the entire world was facing a serious triple threat. First, according to him, the unilateral military action undermined the system of maintaining security and resolving conflicts established in the post-war period. Second, no one can feel safe when the United States chose not to pursue a political settlement, but rather a "policy of murder." Third, a dangerous precedent has been set for the forceful removal of an objectionable government ^of a sovereign country11.

However, despite all the differences in approaches and differences in views on solving specific problems of international security, we should expect an increase in the political influence of ASEAN in the international arena in the near future. This is due to the following reasons:

- successful overcoming of the consequences of the financial crisis of 1997 and continuing economic integration strengthen the economic power not only of individual states, but also of the Association as a whole;

"this will inevitably lead ASEAN to recognize its importance in addressing international policy issues as well.";

- the need for economic integration of Southeast Asian countries in the context of globalization will require unity of decisions in the field of politics as a necessary condition for ensuring economic survival;

- the desire of the United States to create a single unit of the fight against international terrorism in Southeast Asia will force the ASEAN countries to strive for their political unification;

- the implementation of the concept of a multipolar world by the leaders of India, China, Russia and most of the EU countries will undoubtedly be aimed at helping to increase the weight of the Association in solving international problems;

- the open and hidden confrontation between China and the United States in the region will inevitably force both sides to promote the political unity of ASEAN, in order to attract it to their side.

page 51

3. Influence of external factors on regional security in Southeast Asia

The strategic importance of Southeast Asia, of course, cannot but influence the policies of major world powers.

Currently, only the United States and China have the greatest influence in Southeast Asia. Japan, despite its huge financial capabilities, is not able to resist these powers and is generally forced to block with the United States. Russia, due to internal problems, has significantly lost the positions that the USSR occupied in this region.

The United States is the largest trade and economic partner for the ASEAN countries and a strategic guarantor of stability in the region. The traditional set of topics discussed between them includes economic, social, environmental issues and, of course, regional and international security issues.

Despite the absence of crisis situations in relations between the United States and the ASEAN countries, it is far from complete unanimity in their relations. Thus, the ASEAN states are not inclined to put the issue of human rights in Myanmar at the forefront, as the United States does, and they practically did not respond to the problems associated with the death of people in East Timor, etc.

A particular concern for the ASEAN countries is the possible escalation of tensions between China and the United States. The Association wants to avoid the uncomfortable situation of having to make a choice about who to support in a dispute between Washington and Beijing. Playing on the contradictions between major powers loses its appeal when there is a threat of a serious deterioration of the political and business climate in the entire Asia-Pacific region, which would result in a drop in the region's ratings and a new polarization in Southeast Asia.

The problems between the US and China are long-term. At the same time, they affect the unresolved territorial disputes in Southeast Asia, and first of all, the ownership of the Spratly Islands. The official US assessment of the situation in the South China Sea is that the area is a "potential conflict zone" and that the US welcomes efforts to resolve differences peacefully and stabilize the situation there. The ASEAN countries, for their part, prefer to work together with China to develop a "Regional Code of Conduct in the South China Sea" and confidence-building measures through a series of working conferences. Experts believe that the United States will not interfere in the conflict as long as "there is no shooting" and nothing threatens the freedom of navigation in the disputed waters. It is also unlikely that the parties to the dispute will escalate the situation. However, a sensitive situation may arise if certain US corporations take part in exploration drilling in the disputed area¹².

For the United States, the task of increasing the responsibility of the countries of the region for their security and encouraging them to invest in improving the regional defense infrastructure remains urgent. In Southeast Asia itself, Washington no longer requires permanent military bases - there are enough points of call that allow the US armed forces to be on the move, indicate their presence, and be "somewhere nearby". The latter meets both the political interests of the countries of the region and Washington's desire to save money.

While generally supporting the fight against global terrorism, influential circles in a number of Southeast Asian countries considered it undesirable for the United States to participate directly in military operations; for many, this was a war with mu-

page 52

sulmans-co-religionists. Others would prefer that Washington limit itself to providing military and financial assistance.

The events of September 11, 2001 forced Washington strategists to pay closer attention to the Asean zone, which they had long sought. At the same time, the capitals of the Association's member countries immediately began to complain that this attention was "unenlightened, sudden, opportunistic and even militaristic." Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri has called on the United States to turn the war on terrorism into a war on poverty. The President of the Philippines once stated that ASEAN itself should localize hotbeds of tension and conduct anti-insurgency operations in border areas. Later, however, Manila agreed to the participation of the US military contingent in actions to neutralize Islamic separatists directly on Philippine territory.

Nevertheless, despite some rough edges and mutual claims, there can be little doubt that the US-ASEAN dialogue and partnership will survive temporary difficulties, especially if they fit seamlessly into the context of broad and constructive regionalism and globalism.

After the financial and economic crisis of 1997, the Southeast Asian countries view China with mixed feelings of anxiety and hope. Hopes are based on the rapid economic growth of the neighboring giant with a population of 1.3 billion. man, with his ever-growing potential for consumer demand, is able to stimulate the production and export of countries in the region. Concerns also stem from the fact that China, with its cheap labor, and also being a WTO member, will attract even more foreign investment than in previous years, to the detriment of ASEAN.

These concerns are largely justified. In 1990, China accounted for less than 20% of all investment in developing Asia, while Southeast Asia accounted for 60%. Currently, the situation is exactly the opposite: 60% is in China and ²⁰% in the Southeast Asian region13.

The geography of external investment is also changing. Although China has not yet emerged as the largest investor in Southeast Asia, experts believe that it is following the path laid first by Japan and then by South Korea. But while Japan and South Korea have invested in the region's manufacturing industry, China's strategic line is to ensure guaranteed supplies of natural resources through investment.

At the November 2002 summit in Cambodia, China and the ASEAN member States signed a framework agreement to establish the largest free trade area in the Pacific region by 2010. The plan is grandiose: the combined gross national income of China and the ASEAN countries already reaches almost two trillion dollars, and the citizens of these countries make up a third of the world's population. A new economic agreement in the region certainly meets the interests of the ASEAN countries. In the rapidly developing trade with China, the Association countries still have a positive balance. In addition, their national economies are expected to become less dependent on exports to the United States, Western Europe, and Japan, and the prospect of duty-free trade may encourage foreign investors to return to the Southeast Asian markets.

However, manufacturers of industrial products of the Association countries will have to face growing competition from China, which is seeking to capture the markets of Southeast Asia. So, in Vietnam, motorcycles imported from China account for 70%. The Chinese company Suchuan Electric Group has become the market leader for air conditioners in Indonesia just two years after the start of their deliveries. In the run-up to the abolition of export quotas for Chinese textiles in 2005, a number of Southeast Asian countries feared the complete disappearance of their own textile industry.

page 53

Thus, the Southeast Asian countries are losing out to China both in the fight for foreign investment and for sales markets, including in their own territories. They are faced with the need to work out the best option for cooperation with the PRC. According to the Association's secretariat, China should be treated not as a competitor, but as a promising market, and focus on active participation in the development of the Chinese economy. At the same time, Zhi Yulin, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Research, frankly stated that the transformation of China into an economic giant is an indisputable fact, and therefore there is only one way out for the ASEAN countries - to use the opportunities that arise from this.

Russia is a major partner of ASEAN not only in the Asia-Pacific region, but also in the international arena as a whole. They are united by the coincidence or proximity of their positions on most pressing regional and international issues, and a common desire to find collective solutions that take into account the approaches of all parties. Russia's policy in relations with the ASEAN countries is based on the principles of developing and fully strengthening bilateral ties, combined with active participation in multilateral political and economic structures.

Deepening cooperation with ASEAN has always been one of the priorities of Russia's Asian policy. As stated by the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry A. Yakovenko, Russia "sees the Association as one of the main poles of influence in the Asia-Pacific region, the "core" of regional integration processes, a kind of field of attraction for both Asian and non-regional states " ¹⁴. The goal of Russian policy is to maintain a stable, predictable situation in this region and continue its dynamic economic development.

Historically, the most advanced area of Russian-Asean relations is political. Regular contacts are made at various levels, including the ministerial level. Russia and ASEAN share approaches to most global and regional issues, and actively cooperate within the framework of major international associations, primarily in the UN, as well as in the ASEAN Regional Security Forum, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum, and others. A political declaration was signed in Phnom Penh in 2003, and an anti - terrorist declaration was signed in Jakarta a year later. These documents defined the key parameters of interaction, formalized the status of the main dialogue institutions and laid the foundation for the creation of new mechanisms. At the end of 2004, Russia joined the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (the Bali Treaty), which further strengthened the foundation of relations with the Association.

The first Russia - ASEAN Summit, held in Malaysia in December 2005, marked a new and historic stage in the development of relations between Russia and the ASEAN countries. It adopted fundamental documents defining the specifics of these relations in the short and long term: The Joint Declaration of the Heads of State of Russia and ASEAN on Development and Comprehensive Partnership, the Integrated Action Program for the Development of Cooperation between Russia and ASEAN for 2005-2015, the Agreement between the Governments of Russia and the ASEAN Countries on Economic and Development Cooperation. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, " the importance of the summit for the future of our relations cannot be overestimated. The summit provides our leaders with a unique opportunity to meet for the first time in a multilateral format, consolidate the positive aspects of Russian-ASEAN relations, outline priorities for cooperation and ways to further promote it. " ¹⁵

page 54

In addition, it is also important that Russia is also an active participant in another, young, but very promising structure of multilateral dialogue in Asia - the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). States representing more than half of the world's population participate in the SCO's activities. The signing of the memorandum of cooperation between the ASEAN and SCO secretariats marked the beginning of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's initiative to form a partnership network of multilateral associations in the Asia-Pacific region. Russia also supports the establishment of a mechanism for cooperation between the ARF and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the field of strengthening security and strengthening the fight against terrorism in both Central and South-East Asia.

At the same time, Russia is making strenuous efforts to expand the economic dimension of its ties with ASEAN. There is already some progress in this area. The total trade turnover between Russia and ASEAN reached $ 4.5 billion in 2004, almost $ 1 billion more than in 2003. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Russia expects to work out joint measures to ensure further trade growth on the basis of the Economic and Development Cooperation Agreement, and also welcomes the Association's initiative to establish an institute for regular consultations of senior Russian and ASEAN officials on economic issues.¹⁶

Serious prospects are also opening up in the sphere of cooperation in preventing and overcoming the consequences of natural disasters. During the last tsunami in Asia, Russian rescuers were actively involved in providing assistance to affected people. Some form of assistance was provided in the amount of US $ 36 million.¹⁷ This help was highly appreciated. There is great interest on the part of ASEAN to establish continuous cooperation in this area and, in the future, create a mechanism that would allow regular contacts between the relevant services of Russia and the countries of Southeast Asia.

Russia supports the strengthening of the ARF, based on the fact that today the ARF is the only and unique mechanism of its kind that allows full, interested and constructive discussion of pressing security issues in the world and the Asia - Pacific region. The approaches common to Russia and ASEAN are based on the priority of the principles of multipolarity, the leading role of the UN in the system of international relations, the primacy of international law, and the settlement of controversial and sensitive issues exclusively by political means. Moreover, both sides intend to defend such positions, help find common ground, balanced and fair decisions that meet the aspirations of all Forum participants without exception.

In addition, Russia is actively involved in resolving bilateral conflicts in the region. Thus, at the 9th ARF session, all participants recognized the fact that it was Russia that made a significant contribution to the emerging reduction of tension on the Korean Peninsula. Russian border guards are at the forefront of countering the spread of drugs from Afghanistan through Tajikistan to Western Europe. At the same time, the Russian Foreign Minister proposed creating a second "security belt" in the fight against this evil - on the Russian-Kazakh border. Russia's clear position on the Taiwan issue is also worthy of respect. The statement of the Russian representatives that the Taiwan issue is an internal affair of China and that Russia considers Taiwan as an integral part of it, and the Chinese government as the only legitimate government of the country, was duly appreciated among the Forum participants.

page 55

At the same time, it should be noted that Russia, absorbed in pressing internal problems, has not yet built a system of developed and extensive ties with most of the Southeast Asian countries, so at present it is not perceived by ASEAN as a partner of the same level as, say, the United States or China. However, the recent positive trends in this issue suggest that in the foreseeable future, Russia has a real chance, if not to fully regain the positions lost since the Soviet Union, then at least significantly strengthen its presence in this region. To do this, Russia will not need to play along with the Americans in everything, nor oppose them.

Summing up, the role and significance of the ASEAN Regional Forum for maintaining peace and stability in Southeast Asia cannot be overemphasized. The prospects for increasing its importance and expanding the range of decisions taken in the system of international relations generally correspond to Russia's strategic interests in this region. In addition, the activities of the ARF in the future can become the basis for creating an effective system of regional security, in which Russia is also interested.

¹ Chairman's Statement Tenth Meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum. Phnom Penh, 18 June 1903, http://www.dfat.gov.au/arf/statements/10_chair.html

² Chairman's Statement Eleventh Meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum. Jakarta, 02 July .2004, http://www.dfat.gov.au/arf/statements/arfll.pdf.

³ Article by the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry A. Yakovenko on the issues of the 12th ARF Ministerial session / / Rossiyskaya Gazeta. 2005. July 27.

⁴ Gusev, M. South-East Asia. The syndrome of extremist fundamentalism and the fight against it / / Asia and Africa Today. 2002. N 10.

⁵ Chairman's Statement Twelfth Meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum, Vientiane, 29 July 2005. http://www.aseansec.org/17642.htm

⁶ Materials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation No. 1421. 1903. June 18.

⁷ Chairman's Statement Eleventh Meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum, Jakarta. 02 July 2004. http://www.dfat.gov.au/arf/statements/arfll.pdf.

⁸ V. Marchukov Spratly Islands and Problems of ensuring security in South-East Asia, Moscow: IDV RAS, 2002.

⁹ Statement of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) on cooperation in the fight against piracy and other threats at sea // Materials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation No. 1418. 1903. June 17.

¹⁰ Chairman's Statement Twelfth Meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum. Vientiane, 29 July 2005. http://www.aseansec.org/17642.htm.

¹¹ Mikhailov M. Pravornyj vybor politicheskoj pozitsii dorogogo stojstv [The right choice of political position is worth a lot]. 2003. N 8.

¹² Grebenshchikov E. USA-ASEAN: New Tests and Facets of Cooperation / / USA-CANADA: Economy, Politics, Culture. 2002. N 4.

¹³ Gusev M. ASEAN-China: New Economic Prospects / / Asia and Africa Today. 2003. N 10.

¹⁴ Responses of the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation A. Yakovenko na voprosy rossiiskikh mass media v svyazi s budushchimim v Dzhakarta uchrezhdeniyam po linii ASEAN [On questions of Russian mass media in connection with upcoming events in Jakarta along the line of ASEAN]. Materialy MFA N 1496. 2004. 30 junya.

¹⁵ S. Lavrov's introductory speech at the meeting of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Russia and ASEAN on 10.12.2005 / / Materials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation No. 2645. 2005. December 10.

¹⁶ Ibid.

¹⁷ Stenogram of the speech of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov on the results of the ministerial meeting "ASEAN+10" / / Materials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs N 1654. 2005. July 28.

Permanent link to this publication: